The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday night Major League Baseball has seven strong matchups under the lights on the main DFS fantasy baseball slate. The action gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET with four games starting at the same time. The Braves and Nationals are scheduled to start just 10 minutes later, and then two West Coast contests complete the slate later in the evening. Of the 14 teams in the player pool, check out our FantasyLabs Models’ top picks for this Saturday.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,900) Detroit Tigers (-320) at Chicago White Sox
Tarik Skubal has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all starting pitchers in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. He also has the highest strikeout prediction, and the Tigers are the heaviest favorites on the board according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Skubal has dominated all season, going 14-4 in 25 starts, with a 2.49 ERA, 2.66 FIP, and 10.7 K/9. He is tied for the MLB lead in wins and leads the American League in ERA, FIP, and strikeouts. He has averaged 23.9 DraftKings points per start in his 25 games this season.
In his most recent start, Skubal had five strikeouts and 17.3 DraftKings points in a tough matchup against the Yankees. He’ll have a much more favorable matchup against the White Sox, who rank last in the MLB in runs scored and have the second worst batting average and lowest wOBA this season. Over the last 30 days, they have averaged just 3.1 runs per game with only a 73 wRC+ and 24.5% K%. Skubal faced them back on Opening Day and earned 27.7 DraftKings points.
Skubal has posted over 23 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, allowing more than two earned runs only once during that span with at least eight strikeouts in six of those contests. He is the top option on the board this Saturday if you can make his salary fit under your cap.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($7,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-192) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Another lefty who makes sense on Saturday is Kershaw, who has been ramping back up after missing the first half of the season after offseason shoulder surgery. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections. Kershaw is tied for the most Pro Trends as well.
In his last three starts, Kershaw only allowed a total of two runs over 16 1/3 innings. He worked six scoreless innings in St. Louis in his most recent start, earning 18.5 DraftKings points and his second win of the season. In that game, he only had two strikeouts but did have 11 strikeouts in 10 1/2 innings in his previous two outings, showing he still brings decent strikeout upside.
Kershaw isn’t the pitcher he was in his prime, but he is definitely worth a look under $8,000 in this matchup against the Rays. Over the last 30 days, Tampa Bay has scored the fourth fewest runs in the MLB with just a .219 team batting average and a 25.5% K%.
Kershaw and the Dodgers are the second heaviest favorites on the slate behind only Skubal and the Tigers, and building around the two southpaws is a solid start to your Saturday squad.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael King ($9,800) San Diego Padres (-155) vs. New York Mets
If you want to avoid the Skubal chalk, one strong pivot to consider for GPPs is King. He is tied with Kershaw for the most Pro Trends and has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on the night behind only Skubal. In the FantasyLabs projections, King has a better Projected Plus/Minus than Skubal and a slightly better Pts/Sal.
In his first year with the Padres, King has successfully transitioned to his new role as starting pitcher. He is 11-6 in 25 games with a 3.18 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 10.7 K/9. The righty has been especially strong in his last eight starts, with a 2.08 ERA, 2.16 FIP, and 58 strikeouts in 47 2/3 innings. He has at least five strikeouts in each of those eight starts and has posted over 25 DraftKings points in four of his last six.
King will be making his third straight home start after beating the Pirates and the Twins in his last two starts, with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings. His matchup against the Mets is fairly neutral, but his recent home success against strong lineups is a good sign.
All his strikeout upside gives him a high enough ceiling to challenge Skubal for the top ceiling on the slate. If his ownership projection remains very low compared to Skubal’s, he’ll be a solid GPP alternative and a good source of leverage while also saving over $1,000 of salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points and Ceiling using the aggregate projections belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Dodgers are the top stack of the night, as they regularly have been all season. The top of their lineup is stacked on a nightly basis, and if you can afford them, they bring a very high ceiling in this matchup against Taj Bradley ($7,500) and the Rays. Bradley has a 3.55 ERA and 3.97 FIP on the season but has been much more hittable on the road than at home. Away from the Trop, he has a 4.50 ERA and 4.92 FIP with a .332 wOBA allowed. He has also been slightly more hittable by lefties than righties.
Shohei Ohtani celebrated joining the 40/40 club on Friday night with a stolen base and a home run giving him exactly 40 of both to go with his .292 batting average and .413 wOBA on the season. He has the highest ceiling and floor projections of all hitters in the aggregated projections and has averaged 14.6 DraftKings points per game over his last 11 contests.
Mookie Betts is in the top five in both ceiling and floor projections in the aggregate set and has hit .273 (12-for-44) in his 11 games since returning from injury, with two home runs and a stolen base. Since lefties are effective against Bradley, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and even Gavin Lux can help round out your stack, or you can plug in Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith as indicated above.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Michael Harris II ($4,300) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
Of all hitters on Saturday’s slate, Harris has the third-highest ceiling projection in the aggregated projections behind only Ohtani and Betts, which makes him a great value option at only $4,300. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters since he has the 15th highest salary in the outfield but is near the top of the projections across the board.
Harris missed two months with a hamstring injury and is settling back in atop the Braves lineup. He homered in his first game back and homered again on Friday. He is hitting .231 (9-for-39) since returning with a .302 wOBA and 50.0% hard hit rate, per Statcast.
On Saturday, he is expected to lead off against Jake Irvin, who showed potential early in the season but has scuffled lately, allowing 11 runs on seven home runs and 23 hits over his last three starts.
OF Matt Vierling ($3,800) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Ky Bush)
The Tigers have the potential to be a great source of value on Saturday in a favorable matchup against the White Sox and lefty Ky Bush. Vierling is still typically atop the lineup against lefties and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Saturday’s slate.
Over his last 12 games, Vierling has produced 8.2 DraftKings points per game by going 15-for-49 (.306) with three doubles, two stolen bases, and a home run. He had two hits on Friday and put up 14 DraftKings points in Detroit’s 5-2, series-opening win. He’ll look to build on that momentum against Bush, who has given up six runs in 14 2/3 innings while handing out 15 walks in his three MLB starts.
Here’s what the Tigers lineup looks like against Bush using our PlateIQ tool:
SS Mason McCoy ($2,200) San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
McCoy has hit safely in each of his three games since being called up to the Padres. Since he is barely more than the minimum salary, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shortstops and the sixth-highest of all hitters on Saturday’s slate.
McCoy has had a long journey to the MLB and spent time in the Orioles, Mariners, and Blue Jays farm systems before landing with the Padres. At Triple-A this season, he hit .260 with five homers and 25 stolen bases for the El Paso Chihuahuas. He was called up after the injury to Ha-Seong Kim (shoulder) and has gone 3-for-8 with a pair of walks and an average of 6.3 DraftKings points per contest.
If you need to save salary, McCoy is a solid option with good upside. If you are going to pass on the elite shortstops, McCoy can be a solid pivot so you can spend up in other spots.
