NFL

NFL DFS Preseason DraftKings Breakdown (Thursday, August 22nd)

By Matt LaMarca @MattLaMarca
Aug 22, 2024

We have made it to the final week of the preseason. After slogging through months without meaningful NFL football, winter is finally coming.

The final week of the preseason will feature the largest disparity in how coaches choose to approach things. Some teams look at this as the final dress rehearsal before the regular season and will choose to get their starters extended playing time. Others will bench the starters altogether to get one final look at the guys battling for the final few roster spots.

For Thursday’s two-game slate, the Colts appear to be going toward the former. Anthony Richardson and the rest of the starters will reportedly play “close to a half.” Conversely, the Bengals, Bears, and Chiefs are all not expected to play their top players.

If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are a few key trends to keep in mind:

1. Defenses & Kickers are Your Friends

In general, scoring in the preseason is lower than it is during the regular season. There are worse quarterbacks getting most of the snaps, which can also lead to more turnovers.

Defense is also the only position that is guaranteed to be on the field for the entire game. It doesn’t matter if the first-, second-, or third-string defenders are out there, they all rack up fantasy points for the defensive unit.

That results in a massive boon for the value of fantasy defenses. Fantasy defenses average just under eight points per game during the preseason, which is nearly two full points more than every other position (per Establish the Run).

We can only play one kicker and defense in the traditional format, but loading up multiple during showdown slates is definitely viable.

2. Target Playing Time Over Talent

This is probably true for regular-season DFS as well, but it’s imperative in the preseason. Finding out how teams plan to distribute their snaps to each position group is the biggest challenge of the preseason. If you can identify which quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers are going to see the most opportunities, you’re halfway towards building a winning lineup.

That’s particularly true early in the preseason. Most teams are going to lean very heavily on the bottom of their depth charts in the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1. Some select starters may see a drive or two, but this is the time when coaches and GMs figure out the bottom of their 53-man roster. Getting to the regular season with their starters healthy is typically more important than shaking off any rust accumulated during the offseason.

If you can find a quarterback who is set to play big snaps, they are an extremely difficult fade in the preseason. They become the best plays on the slate, while running backs typically have more value than receivers.

3. Tight Ends Don’t Matter

Unless you’re forced to roster a tight end, don’t do it. The position is an absolute dumpster fire during the preseason. You’ll typically see a bunch of players fighting for one spot on the field, and that spot isn’t even particularly valuable. There are exceptions, but on average, tight end is the lowest-scoring position in preseason DFS by a country mile.

We do have to roster a tight end in the traditional format, but by no means should you consider using one in the flex spot.

With the general strategy out of the way, let’s dive into some specific thoughts for Thursday’s slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Player Models (where we house our DFS projections) and Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

If you have some season-long drafts coming up, or you plan on doing some Best Ball drafts, we have you covered as well!

All the great season-long content and projections from ACTION are now Exclusively Available on FantasyLabs — click here to get access now!

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Logan Woodside

The Bengals have the most fantasy-friendly QB room on the slate. Joe Burrow will not play, while backup Jake Browning missed the Week 2 game with an injury and has yet to return to practice. Zac Taylor has stated that there’s no need to rush Browning into action, so I would expect him to get the night off again on Thursday.

That leaves just two players to handle the snaps: Woodside and Rocky Lombardi. While Lombardi might have an elite NFL name, his chances of making the Bengals’ roster are extremely thin. Woodside dominated the playing time between these two in Week 2, attempting 25 passes compared to Lombardi’s eight. He saw 71% of the snaps, so he has a chance to play roughly three full quarters vs. the Colts.

That said, it remains to be seen if Woodside can produce at the NFL level. He certainly didn’t look the part in his last outing, tallying 132 scoreless yards with two interceptions. Still, that much playing time upside can’t be ignored. He’s the safest QB option on the slate.

Other Options

Anthony Richardson – If we knew for sure that Richardson was going to see a full half, he’d be the no-brainer top option. I’d take two quarters from Richardson over three quarters from Woodside any day of the week. However, NFL coaches are liars. “About a half” could very well translate to just a quarter of action if Richardson leads a few successful drives. He’s still definitely worth considering in DFS, but don’t be surprised if he plays less than expected.
Brett Rypien – With Caleb Williams sitting, Tyson Bagent should get the start vs. the Chiefs. However, Bagent hasn’t played much during the preseason, and his spot as the Bears’ backup QB is secure. The team should look to get Rypien a few more reps after playing sparingly in the first two preseason contests.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Khalil Herbert

This is one of the weakest groups of running backs we’ve had for a preseason slate. The Bengals feature the thinnest RB room, but they have three players who have split the work pretty evenly during the preseason.

The Bears stand out as one possible target. D’Andre Swift will get the night off, leaving Herbert and Roschon Johnson as the top two names on the depth chart. They split the first-half work during the Hall of Fame game, which was the last time Swift was inactive.

However, Johnson has picked up an injury since then, and he was held out of the lineup in last week’s preseason contest. There’s a chance that he sits once again, which would leave Herbert as the clear-cut top option. Herbert has been productive with his opportunities during the preseason, averaging a robust 5.4 yards per attempt.

Once Herbert departs, Travis Homer should take over next. He’s handled 27% and 33% of the snaps in his two preseason contests, and he could be looking at a similar workload on Thursday.

Other Options

Trayveon Williams/Noah Cain/Elijah Collins – It’s tough to split the Bengals triumvirate, with all three players seeing at least 27% of the snaps, six carries, and two receptions in Week 2. All three players are worth considering, but getting the right one is going to require a bit of luck.
Evan Hull & Tyler Goodson – Jonathan Taylor will start on Thursday, but he could be one of the first players out for the offense. He’s simply too important to risk in a meaningless game. Hull and Goodson have been battling for the RB3 job, and with Trey Sermon sidelined with an injury, they should take over after Taylor departs. Zavier Scott was the Colts’ most productive RB last week, but Hull and Goodson should see more opportunities in the preseason finale.
Deneric Prince – Recent reports have speculated that Prince is a true coin-flip to make the Chiefs’ final roster. He’s unimpressed so far during the preseason, but with Isiah Pacheco out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire not expected to play much, Prince should have a chance to prove himself.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Kwamie Lassiter II

While the group of running backs on this slate is unimpressive, the receivers are stronger than usual. The Bengals stand out as the clear top team to target: they could dress as few as six receivers vs. the Colts.

Lassiter has been their top option during most of the preseason. He ranks in the top five for all receivers in snaps, routes run, and targets, although it’s resulted in just eight catches for 47 yards. Still, his volume can’t be ignored: he played on 87% of the team’s snaps last week, with 73% of his snaps coming from the slot.

Shedrick Jackson also deserves heavy consideration for the Bengals. He’s caught just three passes for 16 yards, but he’s another player with elite usage during the preseason. He’s played on at least 51% of the team’s snaps in back-to-back games, including 68% in Week 2.

Other Options

Dante Pettis & Nsimba Webster – The Bears are the other team that stand out at receiver. Pettis is coming off a huge performance in Week 2, catching two touchdowns. He did run just 11 routes, but he should see a larger workload given the team’s current injury situation and the fact that the starters are sitting. Webster hasn’t been super productive this preseason, but he’s been the team’s most utilized receiver during the preseason. He’s coming off a 56% snap share in Week 2 and should see another heavy workload.
Kadarius Toney – Toney is another player who is reportedly on the roster bubble for the Chiefs, and he’s going to need an opportunity if he’s going to change the narrative. There should be snaps available for him vs. the Bears.
Adonai Mitchell – Michael Pittman could exit earlier than the rest of the starters, but Mitchell hasn’t earned that treatment yet. The rookie second-rounder has game-changing speed, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to make his presence felt.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Erick All Jr.

It’s hard to pass on Tanner Hudson – the all-time preseason TE leader in points per snap – but All has been the Bengals’ preferred option during the 2024 preseason. He led the position group with a 57% snap share, and he even saw some work out of the slot.

All is a fourth-round rookie out of Iowa, aka TE University. He doesn’t look like a particularly strong prospect, but any tight end from Iowa is worth keeping an eye on.