The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an 8-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($10,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) vs. Seattle Mariners
Jack Flaherty has a 32.2% strikeout rate this season, which would tie for second among qualified starters had some back tightness not forced Flaherty to miss a few games and fall just short of the minimum innings requirement. He’s taking on the Mariners, whose projected lineup has six hitters with at least a 26% strikeout rate against righties, with four of those six north of 29%.
Crochet is expensive, but those numbers point to his massive upside. He leads our projections with a 6.85 K prediction, but I’d take the over on that line in a heartbeat — with prop markets offering lines of 7.5 juiced to the over.
As if that weren’t enough, the Mariners have a slate-low 3.3 run Vegas total today, with the Dodgers as solid favorites. It’s hard to ask for much more from a starting pitcher. This hasn’t gone unnoticed of course, with Flaherty’s ownership projection easily the highest on the slate. That’s the case for fading him in large field GPPs — but I probably won’t be that brave.
He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models in median and ceiling by a solid margin.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Nick Martinez ($6,300) Cincinnati Reds (-110) at Toronto Blue Jays
There’s a handful of pitchers in the 6-8K range that you could make a case for today. Naturally, all of them have flaws as well — but we aren’t going to get a clear stud in that price range. Fitting Flaherty necessitates a cheaper SP2, though, which drew me to Martinez at the cheaper end of the spectrum.
He has a 3.25 ERA on the season, though a good chunk of that was earned as a reliever. Typically, we see an increase in ERA when pitchers move from the bullpen to a starting role, and Martinez is no different. His ERA as a starter is north of 4.00.
Still, he’s been solid in recent outings, with two of his last three starts going for at least 20 points. Somewhere in the teens is well within his range of outcomes today against a Toronto that’s essentially league-average against right-handed pitching.
Martinez typically falls apart deeper into his outings, so the best-case scenario might be an early hook after five or so innings. That’s plenty of time for him to put up a usable (or even slate-winning) score relative to his price.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Ryan Pepiot ($8,300) Tampa Bay Rays (-131) at Oakland A’s
Pepiot is also fairly underpriced based on his numbers this season. He enters the contest with a 3.69 ERA and a healthy 26.5% strikeout rate. Both of those are supported by his underlying metrics, with similar xFIP and xERA marks.
The Vegas data is also solid, with Oakland implied for just 3.6 runs. That’s one of the lowest marks on the slate, and we’d typically expect to spend considerably more for a starter with his combination of moneyline odds and opponent totals.
While Oakland has made some big strides offensively in recent months, they’re also a high-strikeout team with a 25% clip. That gives Pepiot a solid mix of upside and safety at his price, with ownership projections well behind Flaherty.
He could be paired with Flaherty, or used as a pivot (with another cheaper pitcher) for a very unique build that spends up on hitters.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals’ 5.2-run implied total leads Wednesday’s slate, with the added bonus of their production being fairly concentrated around their top hitters. That makes them a very appealing team for DFS, even if said hitters come with a hefty price tag. As mentioned above, there are paths to saving salary at pitching, which makes the Royals lineup fairly easy to stack.
They’re taking on Johnny Cueto of the Angels, who was recently called up from AAA to make his first start of the season. The 38-year-old had an ERA of just over 6.00 last season and is clearly well past his prime at this point.
It could get ugly for the Angels, who are already thin at pitching, necessitating the call-up. Kansas City is an obvious top choice, especially when considering salary.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trea Turner SS ($5,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (Max Fried)
Turner and the Phillies generally won’t be very popular tonight against Max Fried ($8,500). Fried is one of the better pitchers on the slate, and Philly is somewhat overpriced for their 3.9-run implied total.
But they’re also the best team in the MLB against lefties. You can see their splits in PlateIQ:
Turner is part of that, and his ownership will be further pushed down by the presence/projection of Bobby Witt as part of the Royals stacks.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,800) New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians (Joey Cantillo)
Suggesting Aaron Judge is always a bit of a cop-out, as there’s never really a bad time to roster Judge. Today stands out, though, for a couple of reasons. One is the matchup, as Cleveland is starting lefty Joey Cantillo ($5,300).
Cantillo started the season in AAA and has a 6.23 ERA through three starts this season. While the Yankees aren’t especially good against lefties, this isn’t a tough lefty matchup either.
The other big factor is the weather. The conditions should boost total scoring by 20% and home runs by 25%, which is huge at Yankee Stadium, especially for home runs, which already have an 18% boost there. That’s a good thing for the league’s home run leader.
Parker Meadows OF ($3,200) Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
The second big-league stint for Meadows has gone much better for Meadows than the first. He hit .131 through his first 84 at-bats in the majors before being sent down to the minors. Detroit called him back up this month — and it’s paid off.
He has a .327 batting average with six extra-base hits through 49 at-bats in August. He’s also a $3,200 leadoff hitter — a solid value even though the Tigers are implied for just 3.6 runs. With the need to save salary somewhere, he’s an interesting option.
