The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Brayan Rocchio ($2,200): Shortstop, Cleveland Guardians
The season results have not been impressive for Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio, but he was certainly impressive last night with three hits, a home run, and a stolen base for a total of 27 DraftKings fantasy points.
Rocchio has been a most-of-the-time starter for Cleveland this season with a .210/.298/.320 batting line and six home runs on the season. He has a strikingly low 23.3 hard hit % and 85.3 average exit velocity with a .331 xSLG.
The Guardians have a decent matchup tonight in New York against Nestor Cortes and the model likes Rocchio as a low ownership play to stay in the flames after his big performance yesterday. Cortes is 6-10 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the season.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Fried ($8,500) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Behind only Jack Flaherty on the ceiling projections, Max Fried is a model favorite on the main slate with high upside and a reasonable price tag.
Fried is 7-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season in 21 starts. Despite his moderate fastball velocity, he does allow a high 85.5 average exit velocity for the potential of big innings. He will need to get back on track tonight after three rough post-All-Star game starts. He is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in that span.
Using Plate IQ, the Twins have a .213 ISO and .380 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The model likes their moderate park ratings from both sides of the plate in Atlanta. Fantasy owners may be scared off by Fried’s recent performance and a solid Phillies lineup, but the model expects a bounce-back performance from Fried tonight.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bobby Witt Jr. continues to top the ceiling projections with his incredible post-All-Star run. Since the break, he is batting .448/.504/.819 with nine home runs and 29 RBI.
He also continues to pace the American League with a .352 season-long batting average and 110 runs scored. It’s hard to find nicks in his armor this season with his 49% hard-hit rate and .426 wOBA. He has a +2.50 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with at least one extra-base hit in six of those games.
The Royals face veteran Johnny Cueto tonight, who has made his way through the minors this season to earn his first big league start of 2024 with the Angels. The 38-year-old is 5-1 with a 4.76 ERA in 13 minor league starts this year.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Jack Flaherty ($10,500) vs. Seattle Mariners
Jack Flaherty is the obvious pay-up pitching option on today’s main slate, with a salary $1,000 higher than the next closest hurler. The Dodgers righty has lived up to those high expectations so far this season.
Flaherty is 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season in 21 starts. He has a strong 32.2 K% and low 4.7 BB%, which has allowed him to minimize base runners. Even without an overpowering fastball, Flaherty locates his pitches extremely well to induce a 29.5% whiff rate.
The Mariners do have an elevated home run projection tonight, but Vegas has the total run projection low along with the hit total. The Mariners strike out at a 26.6% clip, which could lead to a big fantasy day for Flaherty in the punch-out column.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Vinnie Pasquantino ($4,800) vs. Los Angeles Angels
With a 38-year-old opposing pitcher making his first big league start of the season, the Royals have the highest implied run total on today’s main slate. Vinnie Pasquantino‘s recent production makes him a great option to take advantage of the plus matchup against the Angels’ Johnny Cueto.
Pasquantino has four 12+ DraftKings point games in his last five, with 10 RBI and four multi-hit games in that span. On the season, he is batting .268/.324/.456 with 18 home runs. He sits third in the American League with 95 RBI and eighth with 28 doubles.
Good things happen when hitters put the ball in play, and Pasquantino does that consistently with a low 12.8 K%. He has upped his power numbers with seven home runs since the All-Star Break and gets a strong matchup tonight against Cueto, who has spent the entire season in the minors with an ERA of 4.76.
George Springer ($4,400) vs. Cincinnati Reds
George Springer notched a 30-point DraftKings fantasy total yesterday with two home runs and three RBI in the Blue Jays’ 10-3 win over the Reds. He will try to repeat that performance tonight against Nick Martinez.
On the season, Springer has had a rough go of it with a .222/.301/.381 batting line. He has 16 home runs and 49 RBI to go with a low .300 wOBA. He does have at least one hit in five straight games leading up to his explosive performance last night.
Martinez comes into tonight with a 6-6 record supported by a 3.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He does allow a very low 30.5 hard hit % and keeps free passes to a minimum with a 2.5 BB%.
