The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cole Ragans ($9,500) Kansas City Royals (-205) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The top three pitchers on Tuesday’s slate all have very similar projections, with less than a point separating them in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections. Ragans is the leader in the former system while checking in at number two in the latter.
Ragans has elite numbers on the season, with a 3.18 ERA and a 28.9% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate gives him tremendous upside for DFS, especially in reasonably solid matchups like he has tonight. The Angels rank 17th in wRC+ against lefties, and part of that number was from when Mike Trout was still healthy and playing.
Ragans brings a solid combination of upside and safety, with the Angels implied for just 3.4 runs on Tuesday. He’s worth the salary in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-241) vs. Chicago White Sox
Robbie Ray has made just five starts this season since coming back from injury. In that time, he’s thrown 21 innings and amassed a 6.00 ERA. However, none of those games were against the White Sox. Chicago is easily the best matchup in baseball for pitchers (of either hand) with their dead-last wRC+.
Plus, the upside on Ray is very tempting. Despite his struggles this season, he has a 32.6% strikeout rate and a 15.4% swinging strike rate. Both of those would rank among the league’s best and could be even higher against a White Sox team that strikes out at a high rate.
Ray’s salary is reflective of his relatively poor performance so far this year, but he has a long track record of success when healthy — and an ideal matchup tonight. With the best Vegas Data on the slate, the market thinks he’ll return to form as well, making him a pretty obvious DFS option.
I could see the case for fading Ray in cash games based on the uncertainty, but even that is pretty thin. He leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal projection and is borderline “must play” tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zach Wheeler ($9,300) Philadelphia Phillies (-135) at Atlanta Braves
The third pitcher atop the models today is Wheeler. He has the second-best odds to win the NL Cy Young (though he’s well behind Chris Sale), which tells you the type of season he’s having. He’d be the top play on a lot of slates, but the combination of slightly difficult matchup and other strong options could have him overlooked today.
Despite his nearly identical projections, Wheeler is lagging a bit behind both Ray and Ragans in ownership projections. That obviously makes him a solid GPP pivot, especially when considering you save a bit of salary from Ragans. His numbers compare reasonable to Ragans’, with a slightly lower ERA but also a lower strikeout rate.
The ownership discrepancy is probably explained by the perception of their respective matchups. The Angels feel like a much easier team for pitchers to face — but that might not actually be true. Los Angeles has a higher wRC+ against lefties than Atlanta does against righties, with the Braves striking out at a higher clip.
Of course, Atlanta is implied for nearly a full run more tonight, so Wheeler is not without risk. I’d probably find the extra $200 for Ragans in cash games, but I am more than happy to pivot in tournaments of all sizes.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
You’ll have to make some sacrifices at pitcher to afford the Dodgers today, but they could be well worth it. They’re implied for a solid 4.8 runs against Seattle tonight, with that production likely to be fairly condensed between their top hitters.
Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani are all top-15 hitters in the MLB by wRC+ (or would be if Betts had enough plate appearances to qualify), making them solid options on a daily basis. While Seattle’s Bryce Miller ($8,300) isn’t a pitcher we typically target, they’re fairly matchup-independent bats.
Plus, this game is in the relatively hitter-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, while Miller’s numbers are supported by his home ballpark being the best in the majors for pitchers. That makes this an even better matchup than it initially appears.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,800) New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians (Matthew Boyd)
If paying up for a premier outfield bat, I prefer Judge to Ohtani tonight. That’s mostly due to the pitching matchup against Matthew Boyd, a lefty with an ERA over 5.00 last season (and just one start this year.
The Yankees aren’t an ideal stack due to their overall worse numbers against lefties, but Judge (and Juan Soto ($6,500) have excellent numbers, as see in PlateIQ:
I prefer the Judge/Soto combo to Betts/Ohtani at a similar (though slightly higher) price point, though the salary on either makes it difficult today.
Austin Slater OF ($2,500) Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
One way to get some salary relief is through Slater. He’s just $2,500 today despite being projected to leadoff for the Orioles lineup. Baltimore has a solid 4.2-run implied total, making him underpriced for his role.
Slater has historically been much better against left-handed pitching, with a career batting average of .274. He’s struggled this season in a smaller sample size, but I’m inclined to trust the bigger data set. That’s another reason to consider him today — though the price/value is obviously the big appeal.
Tyler Fitzgerald SS ($5,20) San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
Just like yesterday, the Giants have an excellent team total (slate-high 5.2 on Tuesday) as they take on an awful White Sox team. Getting exposure to the Giants is important, and rookie shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald is a great way to go about it.
Through 62 games, he has 14 home runs, 14 steals, and a .314 batting average. That would put him well above a 30/30 pace if he could maintain it for a full season. He’s not especially cheap himself, but Giants stacks, in general, are, making them a solid value option on a slate where we need to be salary-conscious.
