The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The weekend rolls on with another big Saturday night of baseball including eight games on the featured MLB slate, which begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. There are a pair of divisional tilts on tap, including the Red Sox and Orioles clashing at Camden Yards in the first game of the night. The other divisional matchup is also noteworthy since it happens in the rarefied air of Coors Field, where the Padres visit the Rockies. With teams bringing up some fresh faces from the minor leagues, it’s a fun part of the season for fantasy since several young stars bring huge upside. With 16 teams on the slate this Saturday, there are lots of ways to assemble your lineups, so let’s take a look at some of the top picks using the FantasyLabs Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($11,000) Atlanta Braves (-222) at Los Angeles Angels
Sale is the big fish in Saturday’s pitching pool. He has the highest salary along with the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections.
The lefty matches the most Pro Trends of all starting pitchers on the slate and has the second-highest strikeout prediction behind only Dylan Cease ($8,600), who is pitching at Coors.
After struggling with injury the last few seasons in Boston, Sale has had a remarkable bounce-back season. He has been remarkably consistent and very good all year long and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 straight outings. During that span, he has a 2.15 ERA, 1.71 FIP, and 95 strikeouts in 67 innings. He has an NL-best 11.8 K/9 rate and posted double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two starts. Sale is coming off a dominant outing against the Giants in which he allowed only three hits in seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts to earn 38 DraftKings points. He has at least 19.9 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts and in nine of his last 11 appearances.
On Saturday, Sale gets an even more fantasy-friendly matchup against the Angels. The Halos have scored the fifth-fewest runs in the MLB this season and rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA and wRC+. They also rank in the bottom 10 in those stats over the last 30 days.
Sale and the Braves are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, so he has a good chance to get a win on the road as he keeps building his Cy Young resume.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hayden Birdsong ($6,000) San Francisco Giants (-130) at Oakland Athletics
Despite a couple of rough outings in his last two games, Birdsong has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. Birdsong is extremely affordable at only $6,000 and will be in a good bounce-back environment against the Athletics in pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.
The 22-year-old Birdsong showed plenty of promise in his first few starts in the MLB, posting a 2.97 ERA and 4.06 FIP with 11.3 K/9 over his first six starts. Things fell apart in his last two outings, though, and he gave up 12 runs in just 6 1/3 innings against the Nationals and Tigers.
Looking back over his game log, it’s easy to see his upside with 35.1 and 27.7 DraftKings points in his two previous starts before producing -12.3 and 6.2 DraftKings points in his last two outings. If he can get back to his July form, he’ll end up an elite value on Saturday night.
The A’s still rank in the bottom 10 in the MLB in runs scored and batting average this season, and they also rank in the top 5 in K%. However, Oakland’s lineup has been better lately, so Birdsong is a high-risk value play.
The good news about building with Birdsong is that the Giants should have a well-rested bullpen and should get the rookie out of the game if things start to go south. He also comes at such a low cost that you should be able to bulk up the rest of your roster around him.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cade Povich ($5,900) Baltimore Orioles (-124) vs. Boston Red Sox
Povich will rejoin the Orioles after spending a few weeks in the minors. The lefty is a great prospect with electric stuff, and he is a high-risk play with plenty of upside in his start on Saturday. Povich has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections.
The 24-year-old lefty was just ranked as the team’s No. 5 prospect by MLB Pipeline. He struggled in his MLB stint earlier this year, allowing 29 runs in 37 1/3 innings and issuing 23 walks to go with 25 strikeouts. After being sent back to the minors, he did seem to find his rhythm in his two starts this month for the Norfolk Tides, going seven innings in each start and totaling 11 strikeouts.
The Red Sox have struggled all season against left-handed pitchers like Povich. They have the highest K% of any team in the MLB against southpaws and have hit only .250 as a team in the split. With Triston Casas back in the mix for Boston, the Red Sox lineup is even more left-handed, so Povich should be in a good matchup to pile up some strikeouts and turn in a strong outing.
There is definitely high volatility is playing Povich since the Red Sox do have some power and can put up some runs. At under $6,000, he brings an extremely high ceiling, though, which could make him the key to stacking up all the big bats you want and swinging for the fences in GPP formats.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points using the aggregate projections belongs to the San Diego Padres:
For the second straight day, the Padres have the top stack on the board since they’re playing at Coors Field. They’ll take on lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,300) but lefties Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill are still included in the stack. Freeland dealt with a blister in his last outing and has given up three runs in under five innings in each of his last two starts.
Of all the hitters in play on Saturday, Manny Machado has the second-highest ceiling projection in the aggregate projections described below. He didn’t get a hit in Friday’s loss but is still hitting .293 with a .374 wOBA over his last 20 games. He also has strong splits against southpaws.
Luis Arraez is always a strong option if you’re stacking the Padres since he’s so productive from the top of their lineup, and Jurickson Profar has also been very strong against southpaws this season. Even in a lefty-lefty matchup, it’s hard to overlook Merrill since he has been sizzling in his last 23 games, hitting .353 with a .440 wOBA and cranking out extra-base hits over that span.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Michael Harris II ($4,200) Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
In the aggregate projections, Harris has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters, which is remarkable since his salary is only $4,200. Harris also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate.
The 23-year-old lefty missed two months with a hamstring injury but jumped right back into the mix for the Braves, who are trying to hold onto the final NL Wild Card spot. Harris returned with a grand slam and 22 DraftKings points on Wednesday. He hit lead off in his two games since then and picked up a hit in each contest. He is locked in at the plate after a strong rehab stint in which he went 10-for-23 (.435) with a homer and a .468 wOBA.
The Braves are a great lineup to mix in from the late game as they face Griffin Canning and the Angels. Canning has struggled with lefties like Harris and Matt Olson, giving up a .368 wOBA and 13 homers to lefties this season. Here’s how the Braves look using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Will Brennan ($2,800) Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers (Freddy Peralta)
I had Brennan in my Friday picks, and I’m going back to the well on Saturday after he went 3-for-4 with 11 DraftKings points. Brennan has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield, trailing only Harris and Chas McCormick.
Part of Brennan’s value comes from his premium lineup spot for the Guardians between Steven Kwan ($4,600) and Jose Ramirez ($6,500). He should be in a great run production spot as long as he keeps hitting second, and he’ll likely stay there as long as he keeps producing.
Brennan actually started the month in the minors after Cleveland traded for Lane Thomas, but he tore up Triple-A, going 13-for-31 (.419) with four doubles, a home run, and a .488 wOBA. He has stayed hot in his seven games since returning to Cleveland, going 11-for-25 (.440) in his seven games since returning, hitting a double and a triple.
2B/SS Shay Whitcomb ($2,000) Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
Happy Shay Day! After the Astros called up their exciting prospect on Friday, he didn’t appear in their 5-4 loss on Friday. He’s projected to be in the starting lineup on Saturday, though, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate since he brings such a high ceiling at the minimum salary. The fact that he’s also eligible at either 2B or SS makes him even easier to fit on your roster.
Whitcomb has showcased raw power potential throughout his time in the minors, leading all minor leagues with 35 homers in Double-A and Triple-A last season. He did strike out a lot, though, with a sky-high 31.1% K%. This year, he dropped that to just 19.9% in his 108 games for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. However, he didn’t sacrifice power and still smashed 25 homers with a .392 wOBA. On top of that, Whitcomb also swiped 26 bags, so he can fill up your fantasy box score with either power or speed in his MLB debut this Saturday.
Chris Flexen should be a much softer matchup than Garrett Crochet, so hopefully Whitcomb gets a chance to make a splash this Saturday.
