MLB

MLB DFS DraftKings Picks Breakdown (Friday, August 16)

By Zach Thompson @ZT_Sports
Aug 16, 2024

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

Friday night’s MLB schedule is split between five early games and an eight-game main slate, which gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. The biggest contests are on that featured slate, and the 16 teams in the player pool offer plenty of ways to put together a strong lineup. Three of the eight games are divisional matchups, including the Padres rolling into Coors Field to face the Rockies. There should be plenty of offense in that elevation-boosted matchup, but the FantasyLabs Models show plenty of places to find good options this Friday. Let’s take a look at some of the top picks.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Corbin Burnes ($9,700) Baltimore Orioles (-219) vs. Boston Red Sox

Burnes has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all the scheduled starters in the FantasyLabs projections for Friday night. Since he’s not even the most expensive option on the slate, he also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in those projections. In THE BAT X projections, he has the second-highest ceiling projection and sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.

In his matchup with the Red Sox, Burnes has the second-highest strikeout prediction on the slate, and Boston has the second-lowest implied run total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard.

Burnes has been impressive in his first season with the O’s, going 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 8.24 K/9. Even though his strikeout numbers have ticked down a bit, he has still produced 19.6 DraftKings points per outing. His most recent starts have been so-so, but they also came on the road against tough opponents. At home this year, he has a 2.09 ERA and a 9.0 K/9 rate, which give him a very high ceiling and make him worth paying up for against the fading Red Sox.

Boston is still in the Wild Card race but has lost six of their last eight games. Most of the problem has been their starting pitching, but the lineup does have plenty of strikeout potential and can be held in check as they were on Friday night, scoring just one run in a good start by Zach Eflin. Burnes will look to pick up where he left off and put together another strong quality start on his resume for this season.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Spencer Arrighetti ($8,500) Houston Astros (-192) vs. Chicago White Sox

Arrighetti has been dominant in his last two outings, and now the 24-year-old gets a great matchup against the White Sox. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection in both THE BAT X projections and the FantasyLabs projections, and he is tied for the most Pro Trends of all starting pitchers on the slate.

In his last two starts, Arrighetti has racked up 25 strikeouts in 13 innings, dominating the Rays and Red Sox. He had 31.3 DraftKings points against the Rays and then posted a career-high 40 DraftKings points against the Red Sox last Saturday.

His season-long numbers are still ugly, but he’s been much better lately. He has a 3.25 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 12.3 K/9 over his last six starts. He has at least six strikeouts in five of those outings, and his punchout potential gives him a high ceiling.

On Friday, he faces the White Sox, who have the lowest implied team total on the board. Over the last 30 days, they have averaged just 2.9 runs per game and have the lowest wOBA and wRC+ of any team in the MLB.

He’s only the fifth-highest-priced starting pitcher on the board but brings a very high ceiling and is a top value in this smash spot.

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MLB DFS GPP Pick

Sean Manaea ($8,700) New York Mets (-231) vs. Miami Marlins

Even though he’s priced under $9,000, THE BAT X projections give Manaea the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers as well. The FantasyLabs projections have him with the second-highest ceiling projection and highest Projected Plus/Minus.

Manaea has been very boom-or-bust this season, which is why he’s best used for GPPs where you can take on the extra risk to get the higher upside. His last outing on Saturday was a down game in Seattle since he managed only 1.4 DraftKings points. However, he showed his upside in his two previous outings with seven shutout innings and double-digit strikeouts. In those outings, he earned an impressive 40 DraftKings points against the Twins and 36.2 DraftKings points against the Cardinals. On the season, he has a 3.44 ERA, 3.80 FIP and 9.2 K/9 and has averaged 16.1 DraftKings points per game.

Manaea has faced Miami twice this season, but this will be his first home start against his division rival. The Marlins sold off pieces at the Trade Deadline, but their offense has actually been a little better lately. They still have the second-lowest wOBA and second-lowest ISO on the season against lefties with a team wRC+ against southpaws of just 75 (100 is MLB average by definition).

The matchup sets up well for a bounce-back outing for the 32-year-old, who brings a high ceiling for his salary. He does have the potential for another bust, though, so be aware of that if you include him in your builds.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points using the aggregate projections belongs to the San Diego Padres:

The Padres are at Coors Field in a good spot against former Friar Cal Quantrill ($5,800), so between the elevation and the matchup, it isn’t surprising that they’re the top stack on the board. Quantrill is 7-8 on the year with a decent 4.56 ERA, but he has surrendered 21 runs in 20 innings over his last five starts, including giving up three runs on five hits in 4 1/3 innings in San Diego in his most recent outing. His splits are pretty even, but it is worth noting that Jurickson Profar and Kyle Higashioka each have multiple home runs against him in past meetings.

Manny Machado has the second-highest ceiling projection of all hitters in the aggregate projections, while Luis Arraez has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters and the second-highest at 1B. He usually hits at the top of the Padres lineup with Profar right behind him, making a nice 1-2 punch to build around.

Further down the order, rookie Jackson Merrill has been great over the last 20 games, hitting .356 with six doubles, three triples, five homers, and a .445 wOBA. He has produced an impressive 14.3 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games, and his salary is not that elevated in the Mile High City.

Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

OF Michael Harris II ($3,800) Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)

Harris leaps out in the aggregate projections since he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters. He just returned from a two-month absence but has already resumed his role as the Braves’ leadoff hitter and brings a ton of power and speed potential.

Harris had a grand slam and 22 DraftKings points in his return on Wednesday and moved into the leadoff spot on Thursday. He went 10-for-23 (.435) on his six-game rehab stint with a homer and a .468 wOBA. Overall, Harris is only hitting .249 this season after hitting over .290 in each of the last two seasons, but he still has good upside since he has six homers and eight stolen bases.

The Braves are battling the Mets and Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot, and they’ll need Harris to step right back into a productive role right away.

OF Will Brennan ($2,800) Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers (Aaron Civale)

Brennan has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield, trailing only Harris. He is expected to continue to hit in the second spot in the Guardians’ batting order against righties, which gives him an extremely high ceiling.

At the start of this month, Brennan was sent to the minors when Cleveland traded for Lane Thomas, but he made a strong case to return to a prominent role after going 13-for-31 (.419) with four doubles, a home run, and a .488 wOBA with Triple-A Columbus. He has stayed hot in his six games since returning to Cleveland, going 8-for-21 (.381) with a double, a triple, and at least one hard hit in every game, per Statcast.

Brennan is one of several lefties who will take on their former teammate Aaron Civale on Friday night. Here’s how the Guardians lineup looks in the matchup using our PlateIQ tool:

1B Jonah Bride ($3,100) Miami Marlins at New York Mets (Sean Manaea)

Solid production from Bride is one of the reasons that the Marlins lineup has been much improved lately. The 28-year-old righty has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any 1B under $4,000 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games.

Over that nine-game span, Bride has gone 10-for-30 with eight walks, eight RBI, a pair of home runs, and a solid .442 wOBA. On the season, he has hit .306 on the road with a .407 wOBA.

The fact that he’ll be on the strong side of the splits against lefty Manaea at Citi Field and his very affordable salary make him a strong option to consider if you’re going to go cheap at 1B and stock up on other big bats in the OF or other key positions.

The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.