After a fairly lackluster event last week, the UFC is back with a PPV card. UFC 305 features the long-awaited matchup between former middleweight champ Israel Adesanya and reigning titleholder Dricus Du Plessis.
The 12-bout card goes down in Perth, Australia, with contests locking at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Israel Adesanya ($8,300) vs. Dricus Du Plessis ($7,900)
The middleweight title fight between strikers Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis is an extremely interesting stylistic matchup, both for real-life and DFS purposes. That’s due to how both men prefer to go about their striking.
Adesanya is a highly polished former kickboxer who uses his length and elite reflexes to stay safe at range while picking apart his opponents. Du Plessis is a marauding bruiser who uses volume and power to overwhelm his opponents.
The former style is much prettier to watch but not conducive to great DFS scores. The latter can get ugly but typically ends with somebody unconscious and a big score for the winner. Given how that correlates with each man’s chance of winning, DDP is the better DFS option here.
That’s especially true with his moneyline price coming down to make this a near pick ’em, making him a better value. Throw in the occasional takedown as well, and you get a fair bit of upside. That makes this “dog or pass” from a GPP standpoint.
For cash games, I’ll likely roster both men as there are not particularly comfortable fighters in their price range. However, this is the rare week with just one five-round fight that isn’t a must-play for cash games — taking a stand on one fighter or avoiding it entirely are both viable options.
The Easy Chalk
Tom Nolan ($9,800)
It’s not exactly bold to declare Nolan the chalk play on the slate, given his massive price tag and betting odds. He’s going off as high as -1300 as of Friday, miles clear of the next closest fighter.
For good reason, as Nolan is an exciting 7-1 prospect with five knockout wins — including one on the Contender Series and one in the UFC. The UFC knows what they’re doing with this matchmaking, pairing him against 37-year-old Alex Reyes ($6,400). Reyes last won a fight in 2017 before he joined the UFC.
It’s also concerning that he’s fought just twice in the last seven years, losing both by first-round knockout. Nolan is -400 to win in the first round at DraftKings, which would obviously give him a solid score.
His salary and ownership are both high enough that I suppose there’s a case for a GPP fade, but it’s hard to top the score provided by a first-round finish.
The Upside Play
Stewart Nicoll ($9,000)
Stewart Nicoll is another local product in a favorable matchup, this time against Jesus Aguilar ($7,200). Aguilar is technically 2-1 in the UFC, but he has one win via questionable split decision and another against Shannon Ross. With Ross going 0-4 between the UFC and Contender Series, that barely fits the definition of a UFC win.
It’s the promotional debut for Nicoll, who has a perfect 8-0 record on the Australian regional scene. He’s finished seven of those wins, with the exception being a five-round title fight. That he was signed to the UFC without going through the Contender Series or Ultimate Fighter pipeline is notable — the promotion obviously sees something in him.
He’s a stylistic nightmare for Aguilar, whose 62″ reach is the shortest ever among male UFC fighters. Aguilar overcomes his disadvantage by grappling, but Nicoll is a second-degree BJJ black belt. Aguilar’s grappling is fairly one note, primarily hunting guillotines from his back.
That won’t work on Nicoll — or most recreational purple belts — and should leave the newcomer in top position where he can do damage. I expect him to finish this one once they get there, as I outlined in my betting preview for this fight.
Any finish should keep him competitive for the optimal lineup at his salary, making him a strong play.
The Value Play
Casey O’Neil ($7,600)
Betting odds moving in her favor? Check. A fight that’s likely to go the distance? Check. Solid per-minute scoring? Yep, Casey O’Neil brings that too.
She’s a slight underdog in her fight against Luana Santos ($8,600), but betting action has made her a steal at her current price. Their fight is +140 to end via stoppage, which means we have a decent shot at a full 15 minutes of action.
With O’Neil averaging an absurd eight significant strikes per minute throughout her UFC tenure, she should put up a solid score even without adding a win bonus. That makes her an ideal cash game play, with plenty of GPP upside as well.
O’Neil comes into this fight on a two-match losing streak, but both came following an ACL tear in 2022. If she’s back to full strength, she’ll look like a favorite against Santos, who took this fight on short notice.
The Contrarian Choice
Dan Hooker ($6,900)
I’m interested in both Dan Hooker and his opponent Mateusz Gamrot ($9,300) in their matchup at UFC 305. Gamrot is one of the slate’s heavier favorites and should also be fairly popular, while Hooker isn’t going to draw much DFS attention.
At first glance, this seems like a tough matchup for Hooker, who’s consistently bounced around the back end of the UFC official rankings. Gamrot is 7-2 in the UFC and currently ranked inside the top five at lightweight.
However, Gamrot is primarily a grappler who looks to get the fight to the ground at all costs. Hooker has a takedown defense rate of 80% in the UFC and hasn’t been grounded more than once in a fight since 2016.
If he can keep this one standing, Gamrot should be in trouble. The favorite has suffered knockdowns in four of his last five bouts (while still managing to win three of those) and leaves himself open to strikes when trying to close the distance. With Hooker enjoying a five-inch reach edge, he’ll have his opportunities in this one.
The takedown upside for Gamrot also makes him an excellent play, but Hooker could get there on striking volume even without a win. That makes stacking this fight a sneaky way to build a very contrarian lineup, as both upside cases (Hooker strikes and Gamrot takedowns) could happen together.
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The Swing Fight
Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($8,900) vs. Tai Tuivasa ($7,300)
The big fellas are throwing down on the UFC main card, with local fan favorite Tai Tuivasa taking on Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik in ranked heavyweight action.
It wasn’t long ago that Tuivasa was on top of the world, riding a five-fight winning streak into a number-one contender match against Ciryl Gane and nearly winning. “Bam Bam” then lost his next three, with his UFC career in danger despite his popularity.
The UFC didn’t give him an easy matchup, though, against a very dangerous striker in Rozenstruik. All eight of his UFC wins have come via knockout, and 13 of his 14 wins overall. He’s fought lesser competition than Tuivasa in recent fights but has won two of his last three.
Stylistically, Rozenstruik is a more patient, measured fighter than the all-action Tuivasa. That could favor Tuivasa if he can turn this into a brawl — and if the Australian’s chin returns to form. Either way, somebody is likely to end up knocked out in short order.
The under 1.5 round prop is -188 on DraftKings, and a first-round finish should get the winner into the optimal lineup. I’m not especially confident about who it will be, but you want one of these two in each of your lineups.
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