The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($9,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-289) vs. Washington Nationals
We obviously don’t have a ton of choices on this three-game slate, especially considering it looks like a decent day for offense overall. With that said, Wheeler would be a worthy option even on a larger slate, as he’s having a borderline Cy Young winning season.
His ERA sits at just 2.78, with an xERA only a touch worse at 3.00. His 27.5% strikeout rate isn’t among the top pier arms in baseball, but it’s reasonably close. All of his numbers are easily the best on this slate. The matchup with Washington is fairly average in terms of both run production and strikeouts, which means we should expect Wheeler to perform reasonably close to his typical level.
Wheeler and the Phillies also have by far the best Vegas Data on the slate as huge moneyline favorites. Washington is implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, so we’re checking all of the boxes here.
I expect ownership to condense pretty heavily on the Phillies ace, but it’s hard to see a case for fading him. With the other five pitchers on the slate likely to share ownership fairly equally, we can differentiate elsewhere in the lineup.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Zach Eflin ($6,900) Baltimore Orioles (-138) vs. Boston Red Sox
Eflin is the consensus leader in Pts/Sal in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models by a fairly decent margin. He’s pretty clearly underpriced today, with a 3.83 ERA through 22 starts. His underlying numbers are actually a bit better than that, so if anything, he’s due for some positive regression.
The price point is somewhat understandable based on a tough matchup with Boston. The Red Sox are a top-10 offense against righties this season. However, that only works out to be about 10% better than the league average — if Eflin is 10% worse than his typical day, he’s still a screaming value at his price.
To frame it differently, the Red Sox’s 4.0 run implied total is tied for the second lowest on the slate, higher than only Washington. To get that kind of Vegas-implied production from Eflin at just $6,900 is a steal. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but we don’t need him to be at his salary. Especially in the context of this small slate.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Bailey Ober ($8,200) Minnesota Twins (-118) at Texas Rangers
The Twins are the third favored team on the slate today (though just barely), making Ober the other logical pitching option. His full-season numbers actually compare fairly well with Wheeler, coming in with a 3.52 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate.
That strikeout rate is primarily what caught my eye today, as we’ll need some upside if we’re going to spend the extra salary relative to Eflin. The FantasyLabs models give Eflin a slight lead in median projection, while Ober has a higher ceiling.
This makes Ober an excellent GPP play, as much of the field will be unwilling to spend an extra $1,300 for slightly worse base projections. Ober’s projected ownership trails both Eflin and Wheeler, so he’s a solid pivot for larger GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies’ 5.2-run implied total is the highest on the slate, making them worth finding the salary to fit them into your lineups. They’re taking on Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker ($6,000) at home tonight in a great matchup for their hitters.
While Parker isn’t bad — his ERA is 3.83 with ERA predictors in the low fours — the Phillies’ 119 wRC+ against lefties is tied for best in the majors. Both left-handed hitters in this stack actually have reverse splits (at least in terms of wOBA), meaning they’re better against fellow lefties than righties.
If we’re lucky, some players will miss that fact and skip Schwarber and Harper even if building around Philly, which should keep ownership on the stack slightly lower than it would be otherwise.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Manuel Margot OF ($2,900) Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (Cody Bradford)
The Twins are in a decent spot today in Texas, where they’re implied for 4.2 runs against lefty Cody Bradford ($8,000). Bradford has been solid but has made just five big league starts after beginning the season in AA.
We need a cheap hitter or two, so I looked to see if any Twins fit the bill with good splits against lefties in PlateIQ:
Those aren’t exactly elite numbers from Margot, but he’s hitting .275 against lefties and .209 against righties. Considering how cheap he is for the leadoff spot in their lineup, he’s a strong value.
James Wood OF ($4,600) Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler)
Given the overwhelming chalk forming around Wheeler today, lineups that fade him should absolutely include some Nationals hitters. You’ll need Wheeler to fall short of expectations to have a chance anyway, which only happens if the Nationals bats get to him.
The rookie outfielder with a .797 OPS. Wheeler is noticeably worse against left-handed hitters, and Wood is more affordable than fellow lefty CJ Abrams ($5,400). Of course, full Nationals stacks in lineups that fade Wheeler also make sense.
Rafael Devers 3B ($5,700) Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (Zach Eflin)
The same logic about rostering against a popular starter also applies to the Red Sox against Eflin, though to a lesser extent. Eflin won’t be nearly as popular as Wheeler, but he should garner the next-most ownership.
My plan today is to roster at least a hitter or two against whichever of the three top pitching options aren’t in my lineups to increase the leverage against the pitcher I’m fading. For Boston, the top choice is obviously Devers, a top ten hitter in the MLB by wRC+.
