The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Gio Urshela ($2,400): Third Base, Detroit Tigers
Gio Urshela has started his climb back to normalcy. The Detroit Tigers third baseman has struggled for most of the season, posting a .617 OPS on the season while accounting for 25 runs and 37 RBI. But with improved batting metrics, we’re getting a more sincere fantasy production out of Urshela as he brings his stats back into normal ranges. Those trajectories are expected to continue to Thursday’s matinee versus the Seattle Mariners.
Since the start of August, Urshela has been operating closer to career norms. His .342 on-base and .412 slugging percentages are exactly where we would expect them to be, but his season-long benchmarks remain well short of those levels. That implies that Urshela’s run should continue as actual metrics balance with expected values and work into normal ranges.
We’re seeing that play out over his most recent sample. Urshela has nine hits, including two doubles and a homer, four RBI, and four runs scored over his last 11 games. Included in that sample is Tuesday’s four-hit outing in which he accounted for three runs scored and a homer.
While Bryce Miller has looked solid this season, regression is anticipated. The M’s probable starter is operating well ahead of his expected ERA and gives up a ton of solid contact. His 10.2% barrel rate puts him in the 12th percentile, and his 42.4% hard-hit rate ranks in the 22nd. That should allow Urshela to continue his fantasy ascent on the early slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Fried ($8,000) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Atlanta Braves desperately needed to make the most of their series against the San Francisco Giants. Coming into the inter-divisional showdown, Atlanta had dropped seven of its previous eight, putting them on the precipice of falling out of the playoff picture. But the Braves responded by winning the first three games of the series and can complete the four-game sweep with staff ace Max Fried on the bump.
Fried has been exceptional this season. The Braves’ southpaw continues to rate as one of the top pitchers in the majors in most contact metrics, sitting in the 86th percentile with a 5.2% barrel rate and the 89th percentile thanks to his 32.3% hard-hit rate. Fried keeps hitters off balance with his devastating four-seamer/curveball combination, mixing in four other offerings to keep batters guessing every time they step into the box.
Moreover, Fried is a natural progression candidate in his coming games. The two-time All-Star has faltered over his recent starts, giving up five or more earned runs in three of his past four. That ineffective stretch puts him at a 6.19 ERA over that stretch, substantially higher than his expected value of 3.73. Consequently, we should see meaningful growth from Fried in the immediate future.
We’re expecting that improvement to start in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park. The Giants’ ballpark has a reputation for being one of the most forgiving venues in the sport, ranking as the third-best diamond in the MLB. Combined with Fried’s anticipated progression, that makes him the top pitcher available on today’s early slate, a distinction that’s reflected in our median and ceiling projections.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,200) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Mookie Betts might not be staying with his teammates in the haunted Pfister Hotel in Milwaukee, but don’t let that scare you away from rostering the Los Angeles Dodges slugger on Thursday. The former MVP has been swinging one of the hottest bats in the majors, and he’s projected to sustain that form in today’s series finale against the Milwaukee Brewers.
After missing nearly two months with a broken left hand, Betts returned to the Dodgers lineup on August 12. Across the modest sample since then, Betts has recorded two hits in all three contests, totaling one home run, three runs, three RBI, and a stolen base. Considering his elite metrics and pitching matchup, Betts should have no problem maintaining his form into the weekend.
The Dodgers outfielder-turned-shortstop continues to rate as one of the top hitters in baseball. He sits in the 93rd percentile or better in expected batting average, sweet spot contact, and expected weighted on-base average, with top-end power metrics to boot. Further, he gets to knock around Tobias Myers, who isn’t as effective as his traditional stats imply.
Myers ranks in the 55th percentile with a 3.90 expected ERA, over 100 points higher than his actual benchmark of 2.79. That imbalance has been stretched even further, with Myers toting an unsustainable 1.21 ERA over his last five starts.
Myers’ house of cards is about to come tumbling down, while Betts’ onslaught should continue. Like the evil spirits of Pfister Hotel, Betts is going to torment the Brewers on Thursday.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Logan Webb ($8,800) vs. Atlanta Braves
We are going back to the Braves versus Giants for our second pitching recommendation on today’s mini four-game slate. San Francisco counters Max Fried with their own ace, sending Logan Webb to the mound in today’s concluding game. Webb is on an incredible three-game run and historically performs well in the safe haven of Oracle Park.
Complete game shutouts are a thing of the past in today’s modern game, making Webb’s accomplishment from the end of July all the more impressive. The Giants righty gassed the Oakland Athletics for just five hits across nine dominant frames en route to the win. That set off an impressive three-game sample in which Webb has allowed just two earned runs across 21.2 innings pitched.
That’s been the standard that Webb has set while pitching in Oracle Park this season. In 11 games started, last year’s Cy Young runner-up has a sparkling 2.49 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 76.0 innings pitched. That’s a steep departure from his respective road splits of 4.11 and 1.44.
The Giants cannot afford to drop a four-game set to the Braves, but thankfully, they are sending their best arm to the mound to try and salvage the series. Consequently, we are expecting a pitching duel for the ages, making Webb and Fried the two best options to roster on today’s early slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Freddie Freeman ($5,100) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Small slate or otherwise, it’s always a smart move to roster any pair of Dodgers hitters, an approach we’re embracing on Thursday afternoon. Batting behind Betts in the lineup, Freddie Freeman has been one of the primary beneficiaries of his return to the lineup. Freeman has recorded five hits over the last two games and should sustain those efforts in today’s contest versus the Brewers.
Freeman is on the precipice of breaking out in a big way. His run production metrics have taken a hit over the past few weeks, putting him on a modest fantasy decline. Since July 23, the Dodgers first baseman has accounted for just five runs scored and five RBI despite increases to his slugging percentage. That discrepancy suggests that Freeman is poised to deliver more meaningful production over his immediate sample, coinciding with Betts’ return to the batting order.
Like the rest of his teammates, the Dodgers all benefit from getting to bat against Tobias Myers on Thursday. But we expect the top of the lineup to make the most significant impact against an overheating pitcher who has a tendency to get hit hard. We think Freeman and Betts pair as the winningest combination, leading Los Angeles to glory in today’s matinee.
Francisco Lindor ($5,500) vs. Oakland Athletics
Francisco Lindor is doing his best to upend the status quo in the NL MVP race. While Shohei Ohtani remains the distinct favorite to win the award, Lindor has elevated his play to potentially upset the Dodgers slugger. We’re expecting to see the best Lindor has to offer against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday.
Since the start of July, Lindor has been putting up MVP-caliber metrics. We’ve seen resurgent power from the Mets shortstop, delivering 10 homers and 16 extra-base hits over that sample. Naturally, that correlates with improved run production, with Lindor accounting for 26 runs and 29 RBI across the 40-game sample. That’s without considering his baserunning appeal, as Lindor has snagged nine bags while only getting caught once.
As good as he’s been, there’s still room to grow for Lindor. The three-time Silver Slugger remains nearly 50 points shy of his expected slugging percentage, while he’s 35 points below his expected weighted on-base average. The switch-hitting sensation will have no problem getting to Mitch Spence from his usual spot atop the Mets lineup.
While other players have dominated the NL MVP conversation, Lindor is doing his part to be included in the conversation. We expect him to bolster his resume with another fantasy-leading performance on today’s early slate.
