The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Robbie Ray ($8,600) San Francisco Giants (-122) vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday is another slate without a ton of exceptional pitching options, as evidenced by Robbie Ray leading both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median projections. Ray has a 3.98 ERA through his four starts this season, having made his 2024 debut in late June after missing most of the year.
To his credit, he’s struck out a third of the batters he’s faced since coming back. That’s as good as any qualified starter on the season, with Chris Sale having an identical number. The premium placed on strikeouts makes Ray an interesting option on any slate, especially with his salary still lower than it would have been if he’d been healthy all season.
The matchup also helps, as the once-formidable Braves lineup isn’t anything special. They strike out at a top-ten rate against lefties. They’re also implied for a slate-low 3.7 runs, making Ray a moderately safe pick as well.
Typically, I’d want better moneyline odds and/or a lower opponent total from my top starter — but typically, I’d be paying north of $9,000 as well. Ray is a very solid pick, considering his price point.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
David Peterson ($7,300) New York Mets (-185) vs. Oakland A’s
There are two similarly priced value pitchers on today’s slate, both of whom have their pros and cons. In THE BAT models the leader in Pts/Sal is Peterson, while he’s just behind Edward Cabrera ($6,000) in the FantasyLabs models.
As is often the case, the decision should come down to what type of contest you’re evaluating for. Peterson is a solid cash game option with a 3.34 ERA, and the opposing A’s implied for just 3.7 runs. His upside is limited, though, thanks to just an 18.4% strikeout rate.
On the other hand, Cabrera’s strikeout rate is nearly 10% higher, giving him a better shot at a “have to have it” score. He’s risky, though, with a 5.20 ERA and a matchup against the Phillies — who’s 5.2 run implied total is one of the slate’s highest.
Thus, I’d look to Peterson in cash games and smaller field GPPs; while using Cabrera in large-field contests, we’re hunting for higher scores. With Cabrera also projecting for less ownership, that’s another reason to use him in bigger tournaments.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Ronel Blanco ($9,300) Houston Astros (-125) at Tampa Bay Rays
A lot of DFS players will likely balk at the price tag on Blanco today, as he’s projecting a bit behind Robbie Ray while priced $700 higher. That’s a reasonable stance to take, of course — I’d probably take Ray over Blanco at the same price, much less with the savings involved.
Of course, ownership matters too. Ray is pretty obviously the best play on the slate and will, accordingly, be the most popular. If he struggles, Blanco could easily end up as a must-have option. That makes this a classic “pay up to be contrarian” choice in larger field GPPs.
Blanco has a solid 24.5% strikeout rate that should arguably be higher based on his 13.4% swinging strike mark. He also has a 3.02 ERA. His ERA predictors are considerably worse, but with over 100 innings pitched, it’s hard to bank on regression.
Plus, the Rays are a top-10 strikeout team against righties with a below-average wRC+. Those numbers were primarily earned before they traded every hitter anyone has heard of, and they’re a much worse lineup now. That helps the cause for Blanco, who trails only Ray in median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals are implied for a solid 4.9 runs today, with much of that due to the ballpark. They get a major upgrade going to Cincinnati, a top-five scoring park in baseball. Crucially, Great American is also the best park for home runs, giving the Cardinals plenty of upside.
They also get a fairly soft pitching matchup against opener Emilio Pagan ($4,000), followed by the Reds bullpen. While the Reds bullpen is solid, asking them to go seven or so innings is still a big ask.
The Cardinals stack is also very cheap, considering their status as an away team and solid implied total. That leaves room for other superstar hitters or to spend up at pitcher. With their first five hitters leaving all three outfield spots open, there are plenty of top bats to choose from.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($5,800) Oakland A’s vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
One of those expensive outfielders is Brent Rooker. He and the rest of the A’s are taking on the aforementioned David Peterson, but in lineups without Peterson stacking the A’s outfield makes a lot of sense.
Check out their numbers against lefties in PlateIQ:
It’s a small sample size — and Peterson isn’t the easiest matchup — but they could certainly do some damage. They pair nicely with the Cards full stack for large-field GPPs.
Victor Robles OF ($3,500) Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers (Beau Brieske)
While Beau Brieske ($6,300) is listed as the starter, it’s yet another bullpen game for the Tigers, who are down to two actual starting pitchers. That’s good news for the Mariners, as the Detroit bullpen is extremely overtaxed at this point.
Robles is set to hit leadoff in their lineup, which is implied for a solid 4.4 runs. That makes him a bit too cheap, especially when considering the upside he brings with his legs — he has 16 stolen bases in 57 games played this season.
Marcell Ozuna OF ($5,900) Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (Robbie Ray)
Ray’s ownership is high enough today that any lineups without him should strongly consider at least one, if not more, opposing hitters. Ozuna is the obvious choice here. He has 35 home runs on the season and a .333 batting average against lefties like Ray.
He’s also projecting for less than three percent ownership in both models today, so a big day for Ozuna would be a double dose of leverage against Ray lineups.
