The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Michael King ($9,500) San Diego Padres (-230) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
We have a somewhat unfamiliar name atop the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems today, as Michael King leads both in median and ceiling projection. This is the first season as a full-time starter for the 29-year-old, who was primarily a reliever across five seasons with the Yankees.
He’s certainly lived up to the challenge, with a 3.34 ERA and 28.1% strikeout rate. Those numbers are a bit shy of “elite” status, but still pretty easily the best on the slate. Considering he’s taking on a Pirates team that ranks bottom-three in wRC+ against righties and sixth in strikeout rate, he could end up with elite numbers in this matchup.
Vegas certainly thinks so as well, giving the Pirates the lowest implied team total on the slate and the Padres the best moneyline odds. On a slate without any other standout pitchers, that makes King a near must play at his price tag.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Paul Blackburn ($7,500) New York Mets (-165) vs. Oakland A’s
Finally, some actual value! Tuesday’s slate features a handful of viable options in the $7,000 range, with solid numbers, matchups, or both. Blackburn is my preferred option of the bunch — at least for GPPs — largely thanks to the upside provided by the matchup.
The A’s strike out at the third-highest rate against righties this season, with a 25.4% mark. Blackburn’s own strikeout rate is a touch below 20%, but he should see a reasonable boost from the matchup. While Oakland is only a bit below average at run production, Blackburn’s 3.86 ERA is fairly solid.
Plus, Citi Field is one of the toughest parks to score runs in, cutting scoring by 6% on average. Subtract from that another couple of percent due to the weather, and Oakland’s 3.8-run implied total seems a bit optimistic if anything.
Blackburn leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projection while coming in just 0.1 off the lead in the FantasyLabs models.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,700) Arizona Diamondbacks (-207) vs. Colorado Rockies
Rodriguez made his 2024 debut last week, allowing three runs across 5.2 innings in a win against the Guardians. That was a fairly encouraging debut for the lefty, even if he managed just one strikeout.
He gets a much better matchup this time around, taking on a Rockies team with a 27.2% strikeout rate and 82 wRC+ against lefties. Both numbers are in the bottom three in all of baseball. Considering Rodriguez’s 23% strikeout rate last season with the Tigers, he has plenty of upside tonight against a bad Colorado offense.
He also has a minimal ownership projection. Most DFS players will want to see a stronger performance from Rodriguez before being comfortable rostering him. However, he’s not going to get a better matchup than he has tonight, and if he does well, his price tag and ownership will both be higher.
That makes this a perfect time to get in early on E Rod for GPPs. As I always say, by the time a player proves their health to us, it’s probably too late for DFS.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Rox:
Boston’s 5.5-run implied total is a bit shy of the Yankees’ 6.2 mark but with much more accessible price tags. $4,400 per player for Boston’s top five makes them easy to fit around nearly any pitching combination, so it’s worth sacrificing a bit of run equity.
Not that you’re giving up much, as Boston is taking on Jose Urena ($6,200) and the Rangers. Urena has a 4.31 ERA as a starter this season but is primarily a reliever, so it’s likely to be something of a bullpen game for the Rangers.
Plus, Fenway is the second-best scoring park on the slate, with solid hitting weather as well. Those external factors combined should raise scoring around 20% over average, making this a solid game to target all around.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Lourdes Gurriel OF ($4,600) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
I got excited when I saw the Diamondbacks were facing a lefty today. Unfortunately, Ketel Marte is expected to miss the game with an ankle injury, though, so we don’t have that free square.
I used PlateIQ to see what other Arizona hitters are driving their top-five ranking against southpaws and found Gurriel.
He’s hitting .336 against southpaws compared to just .238 against righties, making him an excellent choice tonight.
Alex Verdugo OF ($3,200) New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox (Jonathan Cannon)
Want some cheap exposure to a Yankees lineup implied for 6.2 runs? You could do a lot worse than Verdugo. He’s far too cheap for his role as the leadoff hitter for the Yankees, especially considering the matchup.
As always, getting to hit in front of Aaron Judge ($6,800) and Juan Soto ($6,400) goes a long way, as Verdugo getting on base has a very high chance of converting into runs scored.
Corey Seager SS ($5,400) Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
I mentioned in the Boston section above how favorable the conditions are for offense tonight, with that obviously applying to the Rangers as well. Texas has a healthy 4.7-run implied total tonight against Kutter Crawford ($8,000) and the Red Sox.
Rangers exposure should start with Seager, who has 26 home runs and a .277 batting average this season. I’m interested in building around him when I can, but am happy with him as a one-off option as well.
