The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants
Sale leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections by a wide margin on Monday’s slate. The NL Cy Young frontrunner certainly deserves that spot, with excellent stats, Vegas data, and Park/Weather factors all going his way.
The one knock on Sale today is the lack of projected run support from his offense. I typically don’t worry too much about a pitcher’s odds of picking up the win bonus, but with Sale the far-and-away leader in both salary and ownership projection, those extra four points might make all the difference. We need an elite score from Sale to justify his salary and chalkiness tonight.
Of course, he has a solid shot of getting there even without picking up a win. Sale’s 8.65 K prediction is more than 2.5 strikeouts ahead of second place. He’s also averaging more than six innings per start with a sub-3.00 ERA.
I won’t be fading Sale much today, as there are easier ways to get contrarian, even in large-field contests.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brandon Pfaadt ($8,600) Arizona Diamondbacks (-238) vs. Colorado Rockies
I was hoping for an even cheaper option to pair with Sale today, as it’s going to be tricky to find the salary to pay up for premium hitters with Sale’s price tag. However, nobody at or below Pfaadt’s price range really inspires much confidence — while Pfaadt is in a great spot.
That’s because he’s facing the dreadful Rockies offense, with this game being played in Arizona. The one drawback of targeting pitchers against Colorado is the Rockie’s home ballpark, but that’s obviously not a consideration tonight.
Pfaadt is solid in his own right, with an ERA just below 4.00, somewhat better underlying numbers, and a solidly average 22% strikeout rate. Those numbers should all improve against a Rockies team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties and has the second-highest strikeout rate.
Colorado’s 3.4-run implied total is just 0.1 runs away from the lowest on the slate, making PFaadt an obvious value. He leads THE BAT’s Pts/SAl projection on Monday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Blake Snell ($9,300) San Francisco Giants (-110) vs. Atlanta Braves
Sale’s opponent tonight, Blake Snell, has identical Vegas data but a price tag of more than $1,000 lower. On top of that, he’s projecting for roughly half the ownership as Sale, making him an interesting GPP pivot.
Snell has made just 12 starts this year as he’s dealt with various injuries, but when he’s on the field, he’s been awesome. His 31.4% strikeout rate is within a percentage point of Sale, and his 4.31 ERA reflects a lot of bad luck. His xERA is below 3.00, with his other ERA predictors in the low threes.
It’s not an ideal matchup with the Braves who hit lefties reasonably well, however they also strike out at a high clip. That provides a lot of upside on Snell’s projection, especially if he can turn in a sixth-straight start of at least six innings.
He trails Sale by a decent margin in both projection sets, but not enough that he should be coming in at half the ownership projection. That makes him an excellent GPP alternative, especially at his price point. He doesn’t even need to beat Sale to be the better play — just keep it close. The extra $1,200 in salary should be enough to get a higher score from the hitters in the lineup.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
The notable thing about this Yankees stack is that the top grouping in our models doesn’t include Aaron Judge ($6,900). That’s clearly due to the outsized price point on the MVP frontrunner, who could hit a home run at his price point and still end up hurting your lineup.
Without Judge in the picture, the Yankees stack is extremely affordable, at less than $4,400 per player. That’s especially important today due to the high-priced pitchers that are standing out in the projections.
New York leads the slate with their six-run implied total, with no other team north of 5.3. While leaving out Judge sacrifices a bit of that, they’re still a solid lineup without their top hitter. That makes this a solid way to approach Monday’s slate and will be how I start most of my lineups.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Josh Smith 3B/OF ($3,800) Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello)
While I typically use PlateIQ to identify hitters with strong splits against their opposing pitcher, it’s a valuable tool for spotting pitchers’ weaknesses as well. That’s the case today, where Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has noticeable differences between his numbers against lefties and righties.
That makes the left-handed Smith stand out, as well as his more expensive teammate Corey Seager ($5,400). Rangers mini stacks make plenty of sense today if you can afford them.
Adrian Del Castillo C ($2,100) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Bradley Blalock)
Castillo has just 13 MLB plate appearances, across which he’s hitting .583 with a home run and five RBIs. That’s clearly extremely unsustainable — but at his near-minimum salary, he doesn’t need to sustain it to be a great play.
His Diamondbacks are implied for 5.3 runs today, with the rookie catcher projected to hit fifth in their lineup. That’s enough information for me to take a shot on him, especially given the difficulty in saving salary on today’s slate. He leads all hitters in Pts/Sal projection by a large amount.
Trevor Larnach OF ($3,500) Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Royals starter Brady Singer ($8,400) is another arm with fairly stark splits against left-handed hitting. In his case, he’s allowed a .372 wOBA against lefties this season, compared to just .213 against righties.
That makes Twins lefties especially appealing. They’re implied for 4.8 runs as a team, but logic would suggest an outsized portion of that production comes from their left-handed hitters. The best value among those is Larnach, thanks to his salary, but there’s a handful of options to choose from.
