DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Richmond: Fantasy NASCAR DFS Strategy and Picks for the Cookout 400

After two weekends off, NASCAR is back, and also back at Richmond Raceway for the second time this year.

In a bit of a wrinkle, NASCAR has decided to bring two sets of tires to this race. The primary, or hard tire, and the option softer tire.

A 50-minute practice session was held for teams to test the new tire, but with half the field going out on primaries and half on options early in the session, before the track changed conditions, it’s hard to use practice as too much of a guage for performance.

Instead, I’ll mostly be relying on short-flat performance, and of course the Richmond race earlier this year as a guide.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for the Cookout 400 at Richmond Raceway.

Cookout 400 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Strategy

I am going to start with none other than polesitter Denny Hamlin ($10,700), who is also the most recent winner at Richmond. Hamlin should be able to lead the early laps, and even if he doesn’t, he’s likely to run inside the top two or three, giving him a good shot of getting the lead back on pit stops.

Brad Keselowski ($9600) is a nice cash-game option having qualified in 29th. He has upside to win this race, dominating last year by leading the most laps at the second Richmond race before teammate Chris Buescher picked up the win. Keselowski gives us a huge floor with that deep starting spot, but he is someone we could look to be underweight on in tournaments, as the dominator upside isn’t quite there given that deep start.

Chase Briscoe ($6900) is a nice cash-game option as well, with short-flat tracks being his best track type. Briscoe hasn’t picked up a Richmond top-10 finish yet, but three of his last five starts have produced finishes of 11th or 12th. That’d be plenty good enough after starting 25th at his price tag.

Cookout 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Strategy and Picks

In tournaments, we’re going to need 2-3 dominators per lineup, given that the race is 400 laps. With that said, in addition to Denny Hamlin, here’s my list of top dominator candidates:

1. Hamlin
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Christopher Bell
4. Chase Elliott
5. Joey Logano
6. Kyle Larson
7. Josh Berry
8. Chris Buescher

The top three drivers (Hamlin, Truex, Bell) should be the bulk of your dominator focus, with Elliott and Logano mixed in. Larson starts far enough back that he can be mixed in as well simply for place differential. Berry and Buescher are contrarian options, and they may pair better with a Keselowski lineup since they aren’t top dollar.

I also like Ross Chastain ($7900), who actually gets a slightly higher Perfect% than projected ownership in my model. Even if my model is a bit underestimating his ownership, I don’t mind an overweight play here given that Chastain was fast in practice and has traditionally had big upside here at Richmond — albeit with some downside as well. But in tournaments, we’re playing for upside.

Noah Gragson ($6600) isn’t someone to be scared of starting 16th. Short-flat tracks, along with classic intermediates, are where he’s excelled. Stewart-Haas Racing as a whole has performed above their typical metrics at short flats, so don’t be surprised if Gragson pulls off a top 10. That would likely get him in the optimal lineup.

Speaking of SHR, Ryan Preece ($5600) is another strong option for tournaments. Preece is in a lame-duck situation and hasn’t really inspired as of late, but maybe that keeps enough people off of him. I should note, I think my model is a bit too low on Preece, and I’d manually bump his projection up in the optimizer. I also don’t mind if you want to play Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5700) as a Preece alternative.

Cookout 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week

This week’s PMPOTW is someone I don’t recommend playing a ton, but I can see him going under-rostered and potentially being a useful piece in large-field or qualifier-type spots.

Austin Dillon ($5800) can make the optimal lineup with a top-10 finish and a few fastest laps added in, especially if the top-dollar drivers end up dominating and Preece and Stenhouse (plus other sub-6k drivers) fail to advance far enough forward.

Dillon did have speed in practice, and both he and Kyle Busch qualified inside the top 12. Richmond has also been one of Dillon’s best career tracks.

It definitely takes a bit of a perfect storm, but my model has this at around a 9% chance of happening compared to the sub 5% ownership projected. In a multi-entry portfolio, I’d recommend going closer to that 10% range than that sub-5% range on Dillon.