The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday night should be a spectacular slate of fantasy baseball contests with nine good matchups on tap on DraftKings’ main slate. The action gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET with three divisional games and two regional rivalries making up the first wave of action. Coors Field joins the board in one of the four later games, as the Rockies host the Braves in a game that should have plenty of offense. Some key playoff races are starting to take shape, with plenty of drama and story lines to monitor for almost every squad. Let’s take a look at whom the models indicate make sense for your lineups this Saturday.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,300) Baltimore Orioles (-161) at Tampa Bay Rays
Burnes and Logan Gilbert (also in action Saturday) are tied for the MLB lead with 18 Quality Starts this season. Burnes has the better matchup and lower salary on Saturday, and he has the highest ceiling and median projections in both THE BAT X projections and the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-most Pts/Sal.
Burnes matches more Pro Trends than any other starting pitcher on the slate and has the second-highest strikeout prediction.
In his first year with Baltimore, Burnes has gone 12-4 with a 2.63 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 8.27 K/9. His strikeout numbers are actually down from his peak with the Brewers, but he has still been very productive, averaging 19.8 DraftKings points per start. He only went five innings last Sunday in a win against the Guardians, snapping a streak of 17 straight starts with at least six innings. He only had 10.5 DraftKings points in that game but had over 18 DraftKings points in four of his previous six appearances.
Burnes beat the Rays and had 28.2 DraftKings points in his first matchup against them in Tampa early in June, and the Rays’ lineup has been struggling lately after trading away bats at the trade deadline. In the last 30 days, the Rays have scored the fifth-fewest runs in the MLB and have just a .231 team batting average.
While his strikeouts haven’t been at an elite level, he has been working deep enough to regularly give the Orioles and his fantasy teams a good chance at picking up wins.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea ($8,200) New York Mets (+110) at Seattle Mariners
Manaea and the Mets are taking on the Mariners in the last game of the night. Manaea has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-highest strikeout prediction of the night. He’s coming off back-to-back impressive outings and is in a good matchup to deliver value again on Saturday.
In each of his last two starts, Manaea twirled seven shutout innings and picked up double-digit strikeouts. He shut out the Twins at home on July 30 and posted an impressive 40 DraftKings points, and then he followed that up with a great outing in St. Louis, where he earned 36.2 DraftKings points against the Cardinals.
On the season, the veteran lefty is 8-4 with a 3.30 ERA and 3.74 FIP and has averaged just over a strikeout per inning. He’s actually been better on the road, where he has a 2.80 ERA, so facing the Mariners in Seattle should set up well for him to keep rolling.
The Mariners lead the MLB in K% and have an MLB-worst .217 team batting average. Against lefties, they’re hitting only .211 on the season, and over the last 30 days, they’re hitting just .216. While they do have some power potential, their low contact rate and high strikeout rate set Manaea up for another potentially huge performance on Saturday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Fried ($7,000) Atlanta Braves (-193) at Colorado Rockies
For GPP play, Fried is too good to overlook despite the added risk of pitching at Coors Field. Fried has the highest strikeout prediction on the board and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections. In the FantasyLabs projections, Fried has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all starting pitchers, which is especially impressive since he has only the 13th-highest salary of the probable starters.
Fried is risky not only because of the Coors Field factor, but also because he is just coming back from an injury. He looked a little rusty last Sunday, giving up five walks and five runs in just 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Marlins.
Before being sidelined by forearm neuritis, though, Fried seemed to be finding a rhythm with a 2.76 ERA and 3.92 FIP over five starts, with 25 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. In a positive sign, he did have six strikeouts in his return and now has 62 strikeouts in 61 2/3 innings over his last 10 outings.
Aside from having to pitch at elevation, the Rockies are a good matchup for Fried. They have the highest K% of any MLB team over the last 30 days and the second-highest on the season. They also have the second-worst team wRC+ in the MLB this season ahead of only the White Sox. That stat does compensate for Park Factor, though, so they are still somewhat dangerous at Coors Field. Despite that risk, Fried’s ceiling is high enough to take a shot on him in GPP tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points using the aggregate projections belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves will likely once again be a very popular stack at Coors Field, and they are in a favorable matchup against Dakota Hudson ($5,500), who will be called back up from Triple-A to make the start. Before being sent down, Hudson went 2-12 with an ugly 5.84 ERA and 5.34 FIP, and he was even worse at home with an 8.26 ERA and .433 wOBA against. Lefties have been especially effective against Hudson, with a .396 wOBA against him and eight of the 10 homers he has allowed.
Matt Olson is a great place to start the stack, and he has been rounding back into form, hitting safely in 12-of-16 games with a .271 batting average, five homers and a .376 wOBA. His overall power numbers are down this season, but his recent surge makes him a great potential value. In the blended projections, Olson has highest ceiling projection and third-highest median projection of all hitters on Saturday. Jarred Kelenic is also a good left-handed value from lower in the lineup.
At the top of the Braves lineup, Jorge Soler has the second-highest median projection and third-highest ceiling projection of all outfielders and an excellent Projected Plus/Minus. Marcell Ozuna has the highest median and floor projections of all outfielders, while Ramon Laureano has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders in the aggregate projections.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
1B Rowdy Tellez ($3,200) Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (River Ryan)
Tellez brings good power potential from the middle of the Pirates order against righties like Dodgers rookie River Ryan. He comes at a very affordable salary, but he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and the highest ceiling and Projected Plus/Minus of all 1B options under $3,800.
In his 98 games this season, the lefty has nine homers with a .252 batting average and .303 wOBA. He has been heating up and has hit safely in five straight games while going 13-for-42 (.310) over his last 15 contests with a .366 wOBA.
According to Statcast, Tellez has a 53.6% hard-hit rate over those 15 games after posting just a 36.8% hard-hit rate over his first 83 games of the season. If he keeps making such hard contact, he should be able to return great value from this price point on Saturday night.
OF Cody Bellinger ($5,300) Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
Bellinger has the second-highest ceiling projection of all outfielders on Saturday night and is in a great matchup against the White Sox and struggling starter Chris Flexen. Flexen is 2-11 this season with a 5.53 ERA and 5.15 FIP. He has allowed 19 homers, 12 of which have been hit by lefties, who have a .377 wOBA against him this year.
Bellinger is one of the Cubs’ best left-handed hitters and has gone 13-for-36 (.361) since coming off the IL at the end of July. Those 13 hits include a double and three home runs, which have helped him average 10.7 DraftKings points per game during that stretch. He was back in the lineup on Friday after a couple days off and posted 26 DraftKings points to power the Cubs to a 7-6 win over their crosstown rivals.
Here’s how the Cubs and Bellinger shape up for Saturday night’s matchup using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,700) Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
Crow-Armstrong also stands out in the same matchup listed above and comes at a bargain salary under $3,000. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Saturday’s slate and the highest ceiling projection of all outfielders with a salary under $4,100.
The 22-year-old top prospect struggled in his first couple of shots at the majors, but he seems to be settling into a productive role. Over his last 13 games, Crow-Armstrong has hit .356 (16-for-45) with three doubles, three triples, and five stolen bases.
On Friday, he had three hits and a stolen base for 19 DraftKings points. He has hit safely in seven straight games and will be a strong play at this price against Flexen. He has shown off good speed upside and also flashed good power potential as he climbed through the minors.
