The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Andrew Benintendi ($2,300): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
The season for Andrew Benintendi and the White Sox as a whole has been disappointing. Just two seasons after posting a .304 batting average, Benintendi is hitting just .210/.263/.351 with 11 home runs and 38 RBI.
His DraftKings salary has dipped $1,500 from the start of the year into value territory, and Benintendi has seen a recent uptick in production. Over the last 10 games, he has a +5.48 average Plus/Minus with four 14+ DraftKings point results.
Benintendi looks to extend his .318/.348/.818 August batting line tonight against Jameson Taillon in the crosstown showdown with the Cubs. Taillon is 7-6 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($10,200) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The 34-year-old veteran continues to impress for the Philadelphia Phillies in his tenth big league season. Zack Wheeler currently sits at 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Wheeler is second in the National League in wins, ERA, WHIP, and batting average allowed. He has four positive Plus/Minus totals in his last five starts and a 27.3 K% this season.
Using Plate IQ, the Diamondbacks have a .172 ISO and .322 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They do have six high-ISO hitters in the projected lineup. The model likes Wheeler’s chances to notch another win in his belt tonight.
Hitter
Austin Riley ($5,500) at Colorado Rockies
The Braves travel to the high elevation at Coors Field this weekend and the model elevates Austin Riley to the top tier of the ceiling projections. Riley is coming off two straight games with home runs and 20+ DraftKings points.
On the season, Riley is batting .266/.332/.474 with 17 home runs and 53 RBI through the team’s first 100 games. He has a high 53.4 hard hit % with a .369 xwOBA and .521 xSLG. He has multiple hits in three out of his last four games.
Right-hander Tanner Gordon gets the nod at home for the Rockies. The rookie is 0-4 thus far in his rookie season with a 6.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He has allowed two home runs in 6.1 innings pitched at home this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Robbie Ray ($8,600) vs. Detroit Tigers
Robbie Ray is a strong model value pick on the main slate with the highest pitching projection at the 10th highest salary.
After making just one start in 2023, the left-hander is 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three starts this season. He is allowing a .343 wOBA and .392 xSLG. His high fantasy ceiling comes from his 35.6 K%. He has 21 strikeouts in 14.1 innings so far this season.
The Tigers have a very low run projection tonight, with a one-run expectation below 1.0 and low park ratings from both sides of the plate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Jorge Soler ($5,000) at Colorado Rockies
The Braves have by far the highest implied run totals on today’s main slate with a juicy matchup against rookie hurler Tanner Gordon at Coors Field. Though Jorge Soler has struggled over the last week, he is the highest-rated Atlanta hitter today in the model.
On the season, Soler is batting .236/.327/.405 with 12 home runs and 41 RBI. In the last 10 games, he has a -2.41 average Plus/Minus without a double-digit DraftKings total since July 28.
Fantasy owners looking for a piece of the Atlanta offense may find low ownership in Soler. Since joining the Braves on July 31, he is still looking for his first home run.
Jarren Duran ($5,700) vs. Houston Astros
The breakout season continues for the Red Sox outfielder as he leads the American League with 35 doubles, 13 triples, and 480 at-bats. Jarren Duran has a .292/.349/.506 batting line with 14 home runs and 58 RBI.
Duran boasts a +2.89 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He showcased his ceiling potential with a 36.0 DraftKings game on August 4 on the strength of three hits, one home run, two stolen bases, and two RBI.
His versatility at the plate and on the base paths give him a high fantasy floor. He faces right-hander Ronel Blanco tonight with a 9-6 record and 2.98 ERA.
