The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($10,300) Atlanta Braves (-165) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Both Cy Young award front runners are in action on tonight’s main slate, with the NL leader, Chris Sale, taking on the Milwaukee Brewers at home. It’s easy to see why Sale is the leading candidate for the award, given his 13-3 record, 32% strikeout rate, and sub-3.00 ERA.
What pushed me to Sale over Tarik Skubal ($10,100) as the top choice is the matchup — though we’ll talk about Skubal shortly. While Milwaukee has better full-season numbers against lefties than Skubal’s opponent, the Mariners, those don’t tell the full story.
Seattle traded for Randy Arozarena at the deadline, and he has excellent numbers against southpaws. Milwaukee is without Christian Yelich for the foreseeable future, and he’s their best overall hitter.
While the Brewers have the slightly higher Vegas Total at 3.6 runs, that doesn’t mean Sale is the one to give those up. The projections are within a point, but Sale leads the FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling on Wednesday’s slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
George Kirby ($8,800) Seattle Mariners (-135) vs. Detroit Tigers
The fact that Skubal is an underdog in his matchup with the Mariners tells you a lot about the state of the Tigers offense. While their full-season numbers aren’t horrible, the combination of selling at the deadline and losing Riley Greene to injury has them considerably worse than their season-long numbers.
It also speaks to Kirby’s numbers. He’s been quietly very good this season, with a 3.04 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate. That latter number keeps him from the ranks of the truly elite pitchers, but he should get a boost based on the matchup with the Tigers.
Plus, at roughly $1,500 cheaper than the slate’s clear top arms, he doesn’t need to equal them in upside to still be a good play. He’s the clear leader in THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projections for that reason. Based on ownership projections I expect plenty of lineups to go with one of Sale or Skubal + Kirby, but it seems almost too good to pass up today. Just be mindful of getting a bit off the board at hitter if going that route.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,100) Detroit Tigers (+115) at Seattle Mariners
As alluded to above, this is a hefty price to pay for an underdog pitcher. However, with this game featuring an extremely low total of just six runs, even the favored Mariners aren’t likely to put up too many runs.
The reason I prefer Skubal over Sale for GPPs is his strikeout upside. While Skubal’s 30% rate is a tick below Sale’s, the matchup with the Mariners should more than makeup for the difference. They have a 26.1% strikeout rate against lefties, good for third-highest in the majors.
That’s one area that the addition of Arozarena doesn’t do much to fix, as his 24.4% rate is fairly high as well. That gives Skubal massive upside, especially if he can pitch deep into this one. On top of that, he gets a major Park Factor boost going to Seattle, the best pitchers park in baseball.
While Skubal isn’t exactly an under-the-radar pick, the upside is too good to pass up for GPPs. Pairing him with Sale, if you can find the salary, should also be fairly unpopular, making that an appealing combination as well.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets let us down in Game 1 of their series at Coors Field, scoring just three total runs. However, their 6.2-run implied total is the highest on the slate by a full run, making them project very well on Wednesday nonetheless.
They’re taking on Rockies righty Ryan Feltner ($5,800), who has an ERA of just under 5.00 and somewhat better underlying numbers. Those ERA predictors adjust for the ballpark, though, so don’t expect positive regression to come into play when he’s pitching at home.
With the Mets as a top-10 offense against righties and the location of this game, it’s easy to see why they’re projecting well. Affording them likely requires some sacrifice at pitcher, but it could be worth it if they exceed their implied total.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Rob Refsnyder OF ($3,900) Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
I’m trying to save salary wherever I can on Wednesday’s slate, and one way to get there is Refsnyder. He’s priced under $4,000 thanks to a difficult matchup with Cole Ragans ($9,000), but there’s a case for him anyway. He’s hitting second in the Boston lineup, with the Red Sox implied for four runs.
More importantly, he’s hit .326 against lefties this year, with six home runs in just 89 at-bats. I first noticed his solid numbers in PlateIQ:
Brandon Rodgers 2B ($3,800) Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets (Paul Blackburn)
A cheaper way to get exposure to Coors Field is through the Rockies. They’re implied for a very solid five runs and have a winnable matchup against the Mets’ Paul Blackburn ($6,500). Blackburn has a 4.11 ERA with worse underlying numbers and a very low strikeout rate that could spell trouble at Coors Field.
As always with the Rockies, their poor lineup makes that easier said than done. Rodgers leads the team in Pts/Sal projection though, making him a solid starting point.
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B ($4,900) Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
I’m also interested in the Red Sox today, largely thanks to the matchup with Kutter Crawford ($8,100). Crawford started the year strong but has hit a major rough patch, giving up a whopping 12 home runs in his last three appearances.
He’s also somewhat worse against lefties, making Pasquantino a good starting point for the Royals. I like Kansas City stacks when possible, though their price point doesn’t exactly make them easy to fit around the slate’s top arms.