The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,200) Seattle Mariners (-202) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Mariners and Tigers went in opposite directions at last week’s trade deadline, with Seattle making some key acquisitions and Detroit throwing in the towel. Most of Detroit’s selling was pitchers, but they traded away Mark Canha while losing their best hitter Riley Greene to injury.
This makes the matchup for Castillo even better than it appears on paper — and it looks pretty good on paper. Detroit ranks 24th in wRC+ against righties with a top-10 strikeout rate, and both numbers should be even worse in their current iteration.
Which makes this an extremely winnable matchup for Castillo, who boasts a 3.43 ERA and 23.3% strikeout rate on the season. Neither number is elite, but both are very solid. Especially considering this game is in Seattle, the toughest park in the majors to score runs.
The Vegas Data for Castillo is elite, with Detroit implied for just 3.2 runs and the Mariners more than two-to-one favorites. We can’t ask for much more from a pitcher — especially at $8,200. He leads THE BAT in median and ceiling projection, and he’s a quarter-point off the lead in the FantasyLabs models.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Pablo Lopez ($8,000) Minnesota Twins (-112) at Chicago Cubs
Lopez is edging out Castillo for the top spots in the FantasyLabs models, while he’s a close second in THE BAT. By virtue of being slightly cheaper, that makes him a solid value pick, though obviously, both arms are extremely similar from a Pts/Sal standpoint.
His game against the Cubs has the lowest total I can ever recall seeing, at 6.0/6.5 depending on the book. That’s largely due to the absurd weather, with 20 MPH winds blowing directly in from center. WeatherEdge has that cutting homers by around 30%, and total scoring around 10%.
Which could do wonders for Lopez, as he’s due for some serious positive regression. His ERA is an ugly 4.65, with all of his ERA predictors at least a full run lower. Throw in a 27.8% strikeout rate (that could also be aided by strong tail winds) and you’ve got a strong projection.
The chalk build tonight will likely be Lopez and Castillo, but they could be worth the ownership. His opponent, Shota Imanaga ($9,500) also makes sense as a pivot, since he’ll also benefit from the excellent weather conditions.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Sonny Gray ($9,600) St. Louis Cardinals (-148) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Were it not for the odd circumstances in Cubs/Twins, Sonny Gray would almost certainly be much more popular tonight. He’s probably the slate’s best pitcher, with a 3.72 ERA and strikeout rate north of 30%. He’s probably due for some positive ERA regression as well, with a 2.70 xFIP through 20 starts.
He also draws a solid matchup with the Rays, a below-average team against righties with a 24.3% strikeout rate that ranks seventh in the majors. It’s not a smash spot for Gray by any stretch, but he could certainly do worse.
Tampa’s 3.5-run implied total is a bit higher than the marks for Lopez and Castillo, which makes Gray a slightly tough sell at his price point. However, his K Prediction is tops on the slate, making him a high-upside option. I wouldn’t classify him as high risk exactly, though he’s not quite as safe as some of the other arms on the board.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Mets:
It feels like it’s been a bit since we’ve had a main slate Coors Field game, but we’ve got one tonight. Given the inept Rockies offense, that typically leads to the visiting team standing out as a strong stack.
Which is the case today, as the Mets are implied for 6.4 runs, while their first five hitters check in at under $5,000 per player. That’s fairly affordable given their projection — and the fact that the two top pitchers are both in the low-8K range.
Obviously, that means the combination of Mets, Lopez, and Castillo will be very popular today, so consider pivoting from one of those pieces or using less-obvious Mets stacks. They’re facing lefty Kyle Freeland ($6,000) and have some down-lineup bats with solid platoon splits.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras C ($5,400) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Jeffrey Springs)
It’s hard finding the $5,400 for Contreras around the Mets stack, which makes him an interesting “pivot” of sorts, even if they could technically be played together. I’m primarily interested in Contreras, thanks to his elite numbers against lefties and the matchup with Tampa southpaw Jeffrey Springs ($7,300).
You can see those numbers in PlateIQ:
Mini stacks featuring the Cardinals’ top three are also interesting, thanks to solid numbers from all three of their first hitters.
Brandon Rodgers 2B ($3,400) Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets (Luis Severino)
It’s fairly slim pickings on the Rockies side today, but their 5.4-run implied total is third best on the board. That means we should at least take a look at some of their bats, all of whom are somewhat underpriced relative to the team total.
Especially Rodgers, who, at just $3,400, is extremely cheap at a relatively thin position. He’s just 0.01 points from the median projection lead at second base in THE BAT despite a lower-tier salary.
Alex Verdugo OF ($3,300) New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels (Davis Daniel)
The Yankees slot in between Colorado and the Mets for the second-highest implied total on the slate. That’s not uncommon, given that they’re the best overall offense in baseball.
It’s hard to fit their top bats, but a cheap way to get exposure to their lineup is through Verdugo. He’s just $3,300 in a leadoff role. He’s got a good chance of scoring should he find himself on base, given that he hits in front of Aaron Judge ($6,700) and Juan Soto ($6,300).
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, July 19): Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo Stand Out
Fantasy MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Jul. 21): Framber Valdez Leads the Way at Pitcher
MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Aug. 2): Where to Look on Thin Pitching Slate?
MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 1
