The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Cavan Biggio ($2,600): First Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Normally a low-ceiling hitter, Cavan Biggio has notched two home runs in his last four games. The Dodgers infielder is an interesting bargain option on the main slate with a solid matchup in Oakland.
Biggio’s season-long numbers are not eye-popping. He is hitting .202/.320/.318 with five home runs and 18 RBI in 71 games. His numbers were slightly better in July after making the switch from the Blue Jays to the Dodgers.
The Dodgers open a series in Oakland against Joey Estes. The right-hander is 4-4 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his first full big league season.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($9,700) vs. Chicago White Sox
At the top of the ceiling projections today is Twins standout Joe Ryan with a useful matchup against the White Sox. Ryan currently sits fifth in the American League with 138 strikeouts and third with a 0.99 WHIP.
Through 21 starts, Ryan is 6-7 with a. 3.62 ERA. He limits free baserunners with an impressive 3.9 BB%, which contributes to his low 2.84 xERA.
Using Plate IQ, the White Sox have a .133 ISO and .270 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have zero high wOBA and one high ISO hitter in the projected lineup. Ryan is in line for a big fantasy outing tonight at home.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,400) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Despite sky-high expectations on the Yankees superstar, Aaron Judge still continues to exceed them. He has a +6.63 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with a 70% rate of exceeding projections.
Judge leads the American League with 39 home runs and 99 RBI. He is within striking distance of a triple crown and has an insane 1.136 OPS and .689 SLG. He swatted .318/.482/.624 in July with eight home runs and 17 RBI.
The Yankees face right-hander Kevin Gausman on the hill for the Blue Jays. He is 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 21 starts. The model expects Judge to live up to expectations again tonight.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Yusei Kikuchi ($8,600) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
For a riskier pitching option with high upside potential, look no further than Yusei Kikuchi. His 4-9 record doesn’t sound too appealing, but the 13 strikeouts he tallied in a recent start on July 9 give him some fantasy juice.
Kikuchi has a 4.75 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with an elevated 45.1 hard hit %. He is 11th in the American League with 130 strikeouts but has also allowed the fourth-most hits (125) and sixth-most runs (63).
The Rays lineup has a 27.4 K% and low run projection tonight against Kikuchi. The home run expectation is slightly elevated as he has allowed at least one long bomb in five of his last six starts.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Austin Riley ($5,000) vs. Miami Marlins
The Braves have one of the highest implied run totals tonight as they open a series at home against the Marlins. Austin Riley is a model favorite to take advantage of the offensive expectations. He has three 14+ point games and two home runs in his last five starts.
On the season, Riley is batting .258/.323/.454 with 15 home runs and 46 RBI. He is significantly behind his power numbers from recent seasons, where he’s topped 33 long bombs in each of the last three campaigns. July was a bounce-back month with a .280/.324/.527 batting line and five long shots.
The Braves take on 24-year-old right-hander Valente Bellozo, making his third major league appearance. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings pitched thus far in his young career.
Juan Soto ($6,000) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
It’s hard to look past the duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in fantasy lineups with their recent production. Soto has a +5.07 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games with four home runs in those matchups.
Soto is batting .309/.436/.593 with 27 home runs and 77 RBI in his first season in New York. He sits second in the American League, just behind his teammate, with a 1.029 OPS.
The Yankees have lofty expectations tonight as they open a home series against the Blue Jays and Kevin Gausman. Gausman allows a high 50.6 hard hit % and 10.7 barrel rate. Expect a high ownership rate on Soto and Judge today on the main slate.
