The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Brandon Drury ($2,600): Second/Third Base, Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels’ unrelenting offense is off to a hot start this week. After totaling eight runs in the series finale against the Oakland Athletics, they dropped 10 in the first game against the Colorado Rockies. Although the Angels are coming off a more subdued one-run effort last night, we expect them to get back on the run-scoring horse on Thursday. And they could be led by an unsuspecting player.
Dealing with a hamstring injury for most of May and June, Brandon Drury moved back into the Halos’ everyday lineup in July. But it’s taken him a while to ramp up to mid-season form. Drury had an abysmal .406 OPS last month, dropping his season-long percentage to .440. The Angels infielder is operating below expected levels and is poised for a breakout against Ryan Feltner.
Heading into Thursday’s inter-league clash versus the Rockies, Drury is over 100 points short of his expected slugging percentage and batting average. He should have no problem starting that climb back to normalcy versus Feltner. The Rockies starter ranks in the bottom half of the league in several categories, including expected ERA, slugging percentage, and batting average.
As a team, the Angels are flying high right now, and it’s time for Drury to amplify his production. We’re betting he takes big leaps in getting there tonight, standing near the top of our Projected Plus/Minus rankings.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Seth Lugo ($9,400) vs. Detroit Tigers
It took a while for his fantasy salary to reflect it, but Seth Lugo has asserted himself as one of the top arms in the American League. Sitting top three in ERA and innings pitched while narrowly outside the top ten in WHIP, Lugo finally cracked the $9,000 salary barrier at the start of July. We’re expecting him to maintain those distinctions in Thursday’s battle against the Detroit Tigers.
Lugo may be coming off a disappointing six-run effort from his last start, but regression was inevitable. In the previous start, the imposing righty had dazzled with a complete game, one-run performance, extending a run in which he threw six quality starts across a seven-game sample. Lugo is primed to resume that streak in this AL Central affair.
The Tigers have waved the white flag on the 2024 campaign. After dealing away several players ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline, Detroit is looking squarely ahead to the future. A fact that is reflected in their team metrics. Over the past week, they rank last in the MLB in OPS and runs scored while striking out 45 times across the modest five-game sample. That plays into Lugo’s strength as a starter, as he’s been effective at missing barrels this season and has seen a recent uptick in his strikeout metrics.
Lugo’s nine-pitch repertoire is more than enough to keep an underperforming Tigers side subdued. We expect the Kansas City Royals starter to live up to his billing as the median and ceiling projection leader en route to another standout fantasy performance.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,000) vs. Baltimore Orioles
In what could very well be a preview of the ALCS, the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles take to the field in the Forest City. While both teams have a plethora of fantasy studs, several factors point toward Jose Ramirez emerging as the top fantasy performer in this crucial AL showdown.
For starters, Ramirez has cemented himself as one of the best players in the game, once again finding himself atop our median and ceiling projections. His recent efforts have validated that position, with Ramirez riding a modest four-game hitting streak into tonight’s affair. More impressively, the four-time Silver Slugger has totaled six hits across that stretch, with three of those leaving the park and another one landing for a double. Naturally, that correlates with top-end run production, with Ramirez driving in five and coming around to score five more.
Moreover, Ramirez’s best work comes off lefties. He’s twirling a mind-numbing 1.125 OPS off of southpaws, with 23 of his 51 extra-base hits coming in just 128 at-bats. As such, his slugging percentage nearly doubles off of lefties, jumping from .448 against conventional pitchers to .719.
A torrid streak coupled with favorable pitching circumstances ensures that Ramirez sustains his current pace as the Guardians’ top hitter. While DFS punters look toward other star players on a short slate, Ramirez stands out as a must-roster option.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Charlie Morton ($8,800) vs. Miami Marlins
The Atlanta Braves kick off a four-game series against the Miami Marlins by sending the ageless wonder, Charlie Morton, to the mound. Morton is showing no signs of slowing down in his age-40 season and should easily dispatch the lowly Marlins at home.
There’s a natural progression element to Morton’s appeal on tonight’s slate. The tall righty is coming off a lackluster effort, in which he gave up five earned runs in just 2.2 innings pitched against the surging New York Mets. That performance punctuated a disappointing July which saw his ERA inflate to 5.31 despite his WHIP staying relatively consistent at 1.25. Consequently, it’s time for Morton’s ERA to return to normal range, starting with Thursday’s tilt against the Fish.
The Marlins have taken a more free-swinging approach over their recent schedule. Miami sits in the bottom half of the league with 105 strikeouts over the past two weeks, fueling Morton’s fantasy appeal. The two-time All-Star continues to put up above-average whiff and strikeout rates, utilizing his deadly curveball/four-seam offerings to keep batters on their heels.
As expected, Morton’s best efforts come in the friendly confines of Truist Park. In 10 starts at home, he’s got a sparkling 3.32 ERA with an opponent OPS of just .692. The Marlins will do their part to pad those stats, ensuring Morton reaches his fantasy ceiling on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Matt Olson ($5,000) vs. Miami Marlins
You can add to your Braves stack by rostering one of the most underappreciated fantasy assets on the slate. Granted, Matt Olson hasn’t recaptured all of the magic that made him an MVP candidate last year, but he’s showing signs of returning to form over his recent sample.
The Braves first baseman has been smashing baseballs lately. Although it’s taken five games, all of his last four hits have been home runs. Included in that is last night’s two-homer effort against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which Olson put up 30.0 fantasy points.
He may not be able to replicate that but ongoing success is anticipated at the plate. Olson’s performance has significantly deviated from normal ranges, implying that his upward trajectory should continue. The reigning Silver Slugger is sitting below his expected slugging percentage and even further off his career average, signifying his position as a progression candidate.
The Braves are feeling the heat in the NL playoff race, and Olson has responded with some of his best performances of the season. You can bet on Olson to deliver another slate-changing performance against the Marlins, rostering him at a discounted salary on Thursday.
Charlie Blackmon ($4,400) vs. Los Angeles Angels
For years, Charlie Blackmon has toiled his craft for the Colorado Rockies, becoming one of the top contact hitters in recent memory. He may be in the twilight of his career, but Chuck Nasty is still flashing that elite skillset on a nightly basis. We’re expecting him to maintain his current form into tonight’s series finale versus the Angels.
Blackmon is riding a six-game hitting streak into Angels Stadium tonight. Over that stretch, he’s totaled nine hits, one home run, three multi-hit games, three runs scored, and three RBI. While he hasn’t received a ton of support from the rest of the lineup, the Rockies could send Carson Fulmer’s offerings into orbit.
While it might not be reflected in his traditional stats, Fulmer is a liability every time he’s toeing the rubber. The 30-year-old checks in at the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate with an even more disastrous 18th percentile ranking in barrel rate. Predictably, those measures correlate with a lackluster expected slugging percentage, with Fulmer sitting in the bottom half of the league.
Enjoy these classic Chuck Nasty performances. The two-time Silver Slugger and former Batting Title winner is turning back the clock, and we’re here for every minute of it. Watch Blackmon live up to his ceiling against the Halos.
