The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jared Triolo ($2,400): Second Baseman/Shortstop, Pittsburgh Pirates
The bargain options on today’s short main slate are few and far between, but Jared Triolo is an interesting option against Houston. He has two straight double-digit DraftKings games with a double in each.
On the season, Triolo is batting a mediocre .201/.279/.276 with four home runs and 26 RBI. He has a .252 wOBA and 39.6 hard hit %.
The Pirates wrap up their three-game series in Houston tonight with Framber Valdez on the hill for the Astros. Valdez is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Logan Webb ($8,600) vs. Oakland Athletics
It’s no secret that Logan Webb has struggled as of late. He is 1-2 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in four July starts and has allowed eight runs in eleven innings since the All-Star Break.
The model thinks Webb will bounce back today with the highest ceiling projection of the short main slate starter list. Before the All-Star Break, Webb was much better, with a 7-7 record and a 3.47 ERA. He has a positive Plus/Minus on the season even with his recent stumbles.
Using Plate IQ, the Oakland A’s projected lineup has a .173 ISO and .318 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run projection and very low home run projection with rough park ratings from both sides of the plate in San Francisco.
Hitter
Elly De La Cruz ($6,200) vs. Chicago Cubs
The Reds duo of Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl top the ceiling projections, even ahead of superstar Shohei Ohtani. De La Cruz has shown his fantasy firepower recently with four 22+ DraftKings point results so far in July.
De La Cruz leads the National League with 55 stolen bases and sits fifth with 70 runs. Overall, he is batting .262/.350/.486 with 18 home runs and 45 RBI. He’s amassed 104 hits in 105 games but has also tallied a league-leading 140 strikeouts.
His speed raises his ceiling on a nightly basis to elite levels. Tonight, he’ll try to get on base against Kyle Hendricks to use that speed. Hendricks is 2-9 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($9,700) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Unlike the struggles from Logan Webb, Dylan Cease has been excellent since the All-Star Break with two impressive scoreless starts. Cease allowed just one hit in 16 innings with 19 strikeouts along the way.
Cease is 10-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He leads the National League with 168 strikeouts and sits third in batting average allowed at .191. He has four straight positive Plus/Minus games with a massive 50.45 DraftKings point result in his last outing.
The Dodgers have a strikingly low run projection tonight with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Their projected lineup has two high wOBA and three high ISO hitters.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Spencer Steer ($5,000) vs. Chicago Cubs
The Reds have one of the highest implied run totals tonight with a juicy matchup against Kyle Hendricks. Spencer Steer is a boom-or-bust option to take advantage of the offensive expectations.
In July, Steer has five 20+ DraftKings point games, along with five goose eggs. Overall, he is batting .237/.324/.429 with 15 home runs and 65 RBI. He has a 41.4 hard hit % with a .414 xSLG.
Hendricks is 2-9 with a 6.95 ERA. He is 0-2 after the All-Star break with an 8.10 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He’s allowed three home runs in 10 innings during those starts.
Zach Neto ($4,100) vs. Colorado Rockies
On the other hand, Zach Neto is a consistent fantasy option to balance out high upside options on the fantasy roster. Neto has a +1.69 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and a +2.04 over the last month.
In 2024, Neto is batting .255/.314/.431 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI. He adds fantasy value with 19 stolen bases and 23 doubles.
The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the hill tonight in Los Angeles with a 2-4 record. He has a 6.23 ERA and 1.60 WHIP and, surprisingly has been worse away from Coors Field with a 1-4 record and 9.96 ERA.
