The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Gabriel Moreno ($3,400): Catcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
Any time we can land a hot bat against the combustible Patrick Corbin, we’re going to take it. Especially when it comes at a discounted rate. Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno checks all those boxes on Tuesday’s main slate, earning the distinction as our preferred value play against the Washington Nationals.
With 10 hits across his last nine games, Moreno is swinging a hot stick. The 24-year-old has notched a pair of extra-base hits while driving in six and coming around to four more across the nine-game sample. But there are more noteworthy metrics propping up Moreno’s ceiling on Tuesday.
First, the reigning Gold Glove winner has a top-end analytics profile. Moreno has one of the most disciplined approaches in the bigs, ranking in the 84th percentile or better in chase, whiff, and strikeout percentages. Further, he’s posted an above-average rating in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, correlating with his elite 29.9% squared-up rate.
Second, the right-handed batting catcher has a natural advantage over southpaw Patrick Corbin, which is reflected in his splits. Throughout his career, Moreno’s slugging percentage jumps from .369 off righties to .429 versus lefties, yielding in more robust run production.
Lastly, Moreno’s advantages will be even more pronounced against Corbin, who continues to rate as one of the worst analytics pitchers in the majors. We’re using tonight as an opportunity to roster a hot hitter against a defeated arm, recommending Moreno as a top value pick.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Robbie Ray ($8,200) vs. Oakland Athletics
It took almost a year and a half, but Robbie Ray has finally recovered from Tommy John surgery. And we saw last time out, the wait was totally worth it. Ray was dominant in his first start with the San Francisco Giants, tossing 5.0 innings of one-run ball against the hated Los Angeles Dodgers. We could see him set the bar even higher on Tuesday, pitching against the lowly Oakland Athletics.
Ray’s first outing since March 2023 was an outstanding one. Curiously, the former Cy Young winner didn’t even give up a hit against the Dodgers, walking in a run in a rusty first inning. Still, Ray went on to strike out eight batters in the victory, flashing his league-leading sit-down material.
Throughout his career, Ray has been a menace to opposing hitters. He’s eclipsed 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in all but one of his last nine seasons, with the lone exception being 2023, when he pitched just 3.1 innings. Altogether, he’s got an 11.0 K/9 rate across 11 major league seasons, with even more impressive underlying metrics.
In 2022, his last full season in the bigs, Ray was one of the best at inducing swing-and-misses. He ranked in the 80th percentile with a 30.0% whiff rate, posting a slightly higher 31.0% chase rate in getting batters to offer at pitches outside the zone.
The former 12th-round draft pick has picked up exactly where he left off and should have no problems carrying that momentum into tonight’s inter-league clash. The A’s have the second-most punch outs in the MLB, enhancing Ray’s fantasy appeal on the main slate.
Ray sits atop our projections on Tuesday night, and he should have no problem reaching his fantasy ceiling in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,400) vs. Chicago White Sox
It may have taken a trip to the Home Run Derby final, but Bobby Witt Jr. might finally be getting the respect he deserves for what he brings to the field on a nightly basis. The Kansas City Royals shortstop followed up his performance in Texas with one of the best two-week stretches of his career, carrying him into tonight’s showdown against the Chicago White Sox.
Simply, Witt Jr. is putting up MVP caliber metrics over his recent sample. The former second-overall pick in the MLB Draft has a .857 slugging percentage in the month of July, someone ratcheting that benchmark even higher after the Mid-Summer Classic. Since July 19, Witt Jr. has had an insane .975 slugging percentage, with nine of his 23 hits going for extra bags.
Somehow, those metrics get even more impressive. Witt Jr. has recorded three or more hits in six of 10 outings after the break, totaling 12 runs and 12 RBI. Moreover, he’s recorded a hit in every one of those contests, solidifying his position as an MVP candidate and top fantasy performer.
Witt Jr. is averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks, hitting double-digits in all but three of those contests. We’re projecting another elite effort against the White Sox, with the AL MVP candidate reaching his ceiling en route to another slate-best performance.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Matt Waldron ($8,000) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
There is no shortage of quality arms on tonight’s main slate. Several elite candidates stand out as serviceable options, most of whom have salaries below the $10,000 benchmark. Although you’ll find him below some of the more prominent names on the board, we can’t overlook the value Matt Waldron brings against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Waldron has quietly asserted himself as a top arm at the bottom of the San Diego Padres’ rotation. Granted, he’s toting around a lackluster 6-9 record, but that’s contraindicated in his 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Moreover, that divide between outcomes and expectations has widened, suggesting that Waldron is due for some good fortune in short order.
Since the start of June, Waldron has been one of the best pitchers in the majors. Batters can’t figure out his knuckleball, failing to generate any meaningful contact or even get on base. Waldron has allowed a measly 0.94 walks and hits per inning pitched over his recent stretch, with eight of 10 outings registering as quality starts. Still, he’s a beleaguered 3-4, implying that Waldron is a natural progression candidate over his coming games.
It helps that the Dodgers have been one of the freest-swinging teams after the All-Star Break. Their 105 strikeouts are tied for third-most in the bigs, resulting in a 32.1% strikeout rate.
Waldron is making his knuckleball dance and should surpass expectations en route to another superb outing. It’s tempting to look elsewhere, but Waldron is the value pitcher to target on tonight’s main slate.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Randy Arozarena ($4,700) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Seattle Mariners have made their intentions known, making several moves ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline to bolster their roster for a postseason push. Included in that is Randy Arozarena, who landed in the Pacific Northwest after being dealt by the Tampa Bay Rays. Arozarena’s tenure as a Mariner is off to a scorching start, a trend that should continue against the Boston Red Sox.
Arozarena has looked solid in three games with the M’s. The former Rookie of the Year has hits in all three games, tallying five base knocks, a double, a home run, and four runs scored. That sustains his elite play over the past few weeks, an upward trajectory that carries him into tonight’s main slate.
Since the start of the month, Arozarena has an All-Star-worthy .975 OPS. His slugging percentage accounts for a significant portion of that number, with 13 of Arozarena’s 24 hits going for extra bases, bumping his slugging percentage to .588. Still, his season-long slugging percentage of .407 remains below expected, suggesting that his torrid streak is showing no signs of stopping.
Frankly, Arozarena was one of the hottest hitters in baseball before the trade, and he’s had no problem maintaining that status since landing with the Mariners. Moreover, Randy hits lefties hard, which is an unwelcome sight for James Paxton as he kicks off his second Red Sox tenure.
All signs point toward another superb outing from Randy Arozarena as he continues to endear himself to the Mariners faithful.
Nico Hoerner ($4,000) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Our final pick comes via the NL Central showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs are looking to avenge last night’s defeat and keep their playoff hopes alive, and thankfully, they can expect Nico Hoerner to deliver them to glory.
Prior to the All-Star Break, Hoerner was one of the hottest hitters in the Cubs lineup, and we expect him to start rekindling those flames. The former first-round pick is operating below expected levels, coming in 19 points shy of his expected batting average and 33 points shy of his career slugging percentage. Both of those benchmarks should start to tick up against Nick Martinez and the Reds bullpen.
The Reds opener is a contact pitcher, ranking in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average, with a minuscule 19.1% strikeout rate. Further, the rest of the Reds relievers are gassed, totaling 12.1 innings pitched over the last four games.
As the Cubs leadoff man, Hoerner maximizes fantasy value on any roster. We think he presents as a top value on Tuesday, getting to knock around a tired Reds bullpen as he starts his trek back up to expected levels.
