The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Juan Yepez ($2,400): First Baseman, Washington Nationals
Juan Yepez was called up to the Nationals on July 5 and has a positive Plus/Minus in each of the seven games he’s played. The ceiling may not be sky high, but for $2,400, Yepez is a low-risk bet as a lineup filler.
Through seven games, Yepez is batting .308/.400/.462 with two RBI. He has at least one hit in each game. In 111 total major league games, Yepez has a.394 xSLG and 38.1 hard hit %.
The Nationals face Freddy Peralta in Milwaukee tonight with a 6-4 record and a 3.95 ERA.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Garrett Crochet ($10,300) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The White Sox starter leads the American League with 146 strikeouts and ranks third with a 0.97 ERA. Garrett Crochet is 6-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 19 starts.
Crochet has one of the highest ceilings in the game with his elite strikeout potential. He has a 34.8 K% this season and six double-digit strikeout performances on the season.
Using Plate IQ, the Pirates have a .138 ISO and .312 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a low run projection and very low hit projection against Crochet. The model expects another big strikeout total today in Chicago.
Hitter
Julio Rodriguez ($5,200) at Los Angeles Angels
Topping the ceiling projections on the main slate is Mariners star Julio Rodriguez. After a rough June at the plate, Rodriguez is batting .407/.448/.741 so far in July with a pair of home runs.
On the season, Rodriguez is batting .259/.308/.358 with nine home runs and 32 RBI. He’s added 18 stolen bases to his fantasy totals but has largely had a disappointing 2024 campaign. He has 26-point and 31-point games within his last six starts, but also a number of duds.
The Mariners have a difficult matchup against the Angels’ Tyler Anderson. The left-hander is 8-8 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($9,800) at San Francisco Giants
With the best control numbers of his career, Joe Ryan is off to a 6-5 record and a 3.29 ERA in his first 18 starts. The Twins righty has a 27.7 K% and a very low 3.7 BB% to limit free base runners.
Ryan has four 20+ DraftKings performances in his last six starts. He does allow an elevated 47.0 hard-hit rate and 9.5% barrel rate.
He faces a Giants lineup with two high ISO and three high wOBA hitters. Their projected lineup has a 23.9 K% and .315 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Jonathan India ($4,500) vs. Miami Marlins
The Reds have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate today against Miami. Jonathan India continues to post career-best numbers with a .276/.375/.419 hitting line through 86 games.
India has two straight 15+ DraftKings point games in his last two nights with a +1.31 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has improved his eye at the plate with a 12.1 BB% and, in turn, has career highs in xBA (.289) and sweet spot rate (41.5%).
Cincinnati takes on righty Yonny Chirinos making his fifth start of the season. He has yet to record a win or loss and carries a 4.19 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
George Springer ($4,100) at Arizona Diamondbacks
By most accounts, this has not been a banner season for the veteran Blue Jays outfielder. That said, George Springer has found more success in July with a .278/.366/.528 hitting line and two homers.
Overall, Springer is batting .221/.310/.362 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI. He has a +2.86 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with four 15+ DraftKings point results in that span.
The Diamondbacks trot out Ryne Nelson today in Arizona. The 26-year-old righty is 6-6 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts.
