The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a ten-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Framber Valdez ($8,300) Houston Astros (-225) vs. Miami Marlins
There are not any pitchers on Wednesday’s main slate that I would consider truly elite. There are some $9,000+ options, but they all have their flaws. However, we have a cheaper option who has elite projections, thanks to having the best possible matchup available.
Miami has a 69 wRC+ against lefties on the season, the worst mark of any team against any pitcher handedness. That’s what makes Valdez so appealing today despite his mediocre numbers. His 3.81 ERA is…fine, and his 19.% strikeout rate leaves much to be desired. In his defense, he’s averaging more than six innings per start, which helps raise his ceiling here.
The best possible case for Valdez is he continues to pitch to contact here and pushes for eight or so innings. That could give him the best score on the slate, even without a ton of punchouts. Or at least keep him close enough to the more expensive options to pay off from a Pts/Sal standpoint.
He has the best median projection in THE BAT while coming in second in the FantasyLabs models. He’ll probably also have the highest ownership, but I’m willing to eat that at his price point.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Frankie Montas ($7,000) Cincinnati Reds (-180) vs. Colorado Rockies
Both budget options that stand out today come from the game between the Reds and the Rockies. Their cheap salaries are explained by the fairly high (9.5 run) Vegas total on the game, while their solid projections are due to the low quality of offenses featured in the contest.
Montas is the better of the two, with a 4.19 ERA on the season, despite pitching in one of the tougher home ballparks for pitchers. He draws the Rockies, who have a 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 25.2% strikeout rate.
However, Colorado’s Kyle Freeland ($5,000) is also projecting well relative to his salary. He has a 6.26 ERA but underlying numbers from the mid-four to low-five range and gets a park factor upgrade going from Colorado to Cincinnati. The Reds rank 26th in wRC+ against lefties and 28th in strikeout rate.
Montas leads THE BAT projections for points for salary, with Freeland coming in third (behind Montas and Valdez). I prefer to find the salary for the Reds righty, but a pivot down to Freeland also makes sense if it meaningfully improves the hitters you can afford.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nick Pivetta ($9,600) Boston Red Sox (-189) vs. Oakland A’s
Pivetta isn’t a good play at first glance, with the second-highest salary on the slate, despite his opponent being implied for 4.4 runs. However, there’s some reason for optimism despite the high total — and the A’s runs could also come against the Boston bullpen, of course.
The biggest case for Pivetta is his K prediction, which leads the slate by a reasonable margin. He comes into the game with a 28.1% rate, which leads the slate. Beyond that, Oakland’s 26.9% rate against righties is the second highest in the majors and the highest on the main slate.
Pivetta’s 4.06 ERA is also a bit misleading, as his xFIP is 3.52, and his SIERA is 3.39. It’s hard to project him for too much regression in a home game — Boston has the second-best park factor for offense in the majors — but there’s at least a case that he could/should be better.
He’s a high-risk, high-reward GPP option today with a wide range of outcomes.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
While I made the case for Freeland earlier in the article, the case for the Reds bats is probably stronger. Freeland has an ERA over six, and while he gets a park upgrade today, his park-adjusted metrics are still on the wrong side of 5.00.
The Reds 5.5-run implied total trails only the Red Sox’s 5.9, while their full stack is $1,700 cheaper. That’s enough to sacrifice less than half a run of projection in my book.
The Reds hit lefties slightly better as a team, with Steer, India, and Marte (albeit in a tiny sample size) all on the stronger side of their platoon splits. I’d prioritize those three if you can’t afford the full stack, as the expensive De La Cruz is better against righties.
Fading De La Cruz or Candelario also allows you to play one of the Reds’ cheaper bats, which helps a lot if spending up on pitching.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tyler O’Neil OF ($5,300) Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland A’s (JP Sears)
I’m probably not playing full Boston stacks today for a couple of reasons. One, it feels like chasing after they scored 12 runs yesterday. Two, they’re pretty expensive — especially considering they’re a below-average team overall against lefties.
However, one hitter stands out in PlateIQ with excellent numbers against southpaws:
That would be O’Neil, with his insane .481 wOBA. I’ll try to find the salary to fit him in a lineup or two tonight.
Mark Vientos 3B ($4,400) New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
One team that doesn’t struggle against lefties is the Mets. They have a 124 wRC+ against lefties on the season, third best in the league. They’re not exactly facing a tough one today either, as Patrick Corbin ($5,500) has a 5.49 ERA through 18 starts.
The obvious choices are JD Martinez ($4,800) and Pete Alonso ($5,200), both noted lefty-mashers. However, Vientos’ numbers compare favorably, with a .338 average and 1.056 OPS this season. I’d like to play all three when possible, but considering the costs and ownership projections, I’m starting with Vientos.
Corey Seager SS ($5,000) Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
Seager didn’t work out for us yesterday, but I’m going back to the well tonight. He has an even better matchup against Griffin Canning ($6,800), who’s allowed left-handed bats a .371 wOBA on the season.
Seager is also on the better side of his platoon splits against righties, making this a solid spot for the cleanup hitter in a lineup implied for just under five runs on Wednesday.
