The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
This Saturday’s main fantasy baseball slate focuses on some big matchups in the National League. After a busy afternoon of games, there are just four games on Saturday night’s slate, but there are some critical contests. The action starts with two potential playoff previews as the NL Central-leading Brewers visit the NL West-leading Dodgers, and the top two teams from the NL East go head-to-head as the Phillies visit the Braves. Coors Field is in play for the third matchup of the night as the Rockies host the Royals, and we close out the night with an NL West showdown between the Padres and the Diamondbacks, who are both in the Wild Card hunt. From those eight teams, let’s take a look at who our models point to as good fantasy plays.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($9,700) Milwaukee Brewers (-105) at Los Angeles Dodgers
Peralta has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections of the eight starting pitchers in play this Saturday night in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT X projections. It’s a less-than-ideal matchup against the Dodgers, but none of the matchups on this Saturday slate are especially juicy.
So far this season, Peralta has looked the part of a true ace for the Brew Crew, going 6-4 in 17 starts with a 3.83 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 11.49 K/9. He has allowed two runs or fewer in three straight starts and three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. He also brings good strikeout form to the mound this Saturday with at least six strikeouts in four straight starts and 28 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings during that span.
Peralta has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate by a wide margin and brings a very high ceiling since he’s the only option on the slate that has proven dominant swing-and-miss stuff regularly.
The Brewers bumped Peralta back a day, or we could have gotten a showdown between him and Tyler Glasnow to open the series. Instead, he’ll take the mound against James Paxton, who has been struggling. This will be the first time Peralta has faced the Dodgers this season, but his numbers have been fairly strong on the road and strong enough recently to still earn him the top stud spot this Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Seth Lugo ($8,200) Kansas City Royals (-178) at Colorado Rockies
Even though he’s pitching at Coors Field, Lugo has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of Saturday’s starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections. The Royals are the heaviest favorites on the slate, and Lugo has done a great job in his first season in Kansas City.
Lugo has been outstanding this year for the Royals, leading the MLB with a 2.17 ERA and 11 wins. His strikeout rate is only 8.15 K/9 but his 3.21 FIP and 3.75 SIERA are solid enough to show his performance hasn’t been flukey.
In his last start, Lugo dominated the Guardians with six shutout innings, allowing just four hits and one walk while picking up 10 strikeouts for 34.5 DraftKings points. He has over 20 DraftKings points in three straight games and has worked at least six innings in eight straight starts. The 34-year-old veteran has proven to be one of the best free agent signings of last offseason.
The big risk factor with Lugo is that he’s pitching at Coors Field. However, this week, the games at Coors have been relatively low-scoring, with no team scoring over four runs in any of the last four games. Lugo has also had some success in Denver during his career, allowing just five earned runs in 14 innings (3.21 ERA) with 20 strikeouts. The Rockies’ lineup itself is a fairly favorable matchup, ranking in the top six in K% and the bottom six in wRC+ (which includes Park Factor) over the last 30 days.
The risk factor of elevation is the only downside, but Lugo’s form is strong enough to make him a top target since his salary is reduced for this Coors Field outing.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Matt Waldron ($7,600) San Diego Padres (-122) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Waldron’s knuckleball has been unpredictable enough to make him very effective this season, and he is a good option for GPP play, where you can live with the added risk of the flutterball not breaking your way.
He can be boom or bust, but his upside is demonstrated by the fact that he has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections, behind only Peralta and Lugo. His salary is only the fifth-highest on the board, so he could end up being a great value if he delivers.
Waldron struggled a bit in Boston last weekend, but before that, he had allowed no more than two earned runs in nine straight starts, going 4-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and 8.95 K/9. He beat the Dbacks during that stretch on June 8, allowing one run on three hits in six innings and earning 20.5 DraftKings points. He earned over 19 DraftKings points in six of those nine starts and is averaging 15.4 DraftKings points per outing on the season.
The Diamondbacks offense has been good over the last month, ranking in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ and the bottom 10 in K%. They came into the series with four wins in their last five games before Manny Machado walked off Friday’s game with a ninth-inning blast.
Even though Arizona’s offense has been solid lately, Waldron’s worth taking a risk on in GPP since he has been so effective overall this season for San Diego.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Ceiling using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
For a second straight day, the Royals get the top stack in our breakdown since they’re enjoying the weekend in the altitude of Coors Field. They only scored two runs on Friday, but they should be in a more favorable matchup against lefty Austin Gomber. Gomber is only 1-5 in his 16 starts with a 4.72 ERA, 4.86 FIP and 1.54 HR/9. His splits are fairly balanced, but he has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts, giving up 25 runs on 39 hits in 26 innings.
The Royals have the highest implied run total on the night, and their lineup should bring good production from the top and value throughout. Bobby Witt has the highest ceiling, median and floor projections of any hitter on the slate, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus. He has his fourth multi-hit game of the week on Friday in the series opener, producing double-digit DraftKings points for the fifth straight game. Over his last 23 games, Witt is hitting .330 with a wOBA of .392. He brings both power and speed upside and is a great star to build around.
Maikel Garcia typically bats in front of Witt and makes a great 1-2 punch. The Royals stack can also include righty power in Salvador Perez and Hunter Renfroe, lefty power in Vinnie Pasquantino, or a few cheaper plays such as Dairon Blanco or former Rockie Garrett Hampson.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
3B Austin Riley ($5,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
Riley has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all 3B, behind only the two starting options at Coors Field. His matchup against Suarez looks tough on the surface, but he actually makes a lot of sense if you look a little deeper.
Over his last 20 games, Riley is hitting a scalding .362 (25-for-69) with six doubles, eight home runs, a .435 ISO, and a .510 wOBA. He homered on Friday, giving him 11 long balls on the season, and seven of those have come at home at Truist Park, where he has a .358 wOBA.
Riley has gone 7-for-17 in his past matchups with Suarez with four extra-base hits, including a home run. His success against Suarez and current form makes him a good play from the hot corner this Saturday.
OF Jackson Chourio ($3,300) Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (James Paxton)
The Brewers have given their 20-year-old rookie plenty of opportunities this season, and for the most part, Chourio has proven up to the task. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on Saturday’s slate and is in a good matchup against the Dodgers.
After starting hot, Chourio hit a rough patch after the league adjusted to him, but he has now made his own adjustments and found a nice groove. He comes into Saturday’s matchup in L.A. riding an 11-game hitting streak. During that stretch, he went 15-for-36 (.417) with three doubles, two home runs, nine runs scored and a stolen base. He has averaged 10.2 DraftKings points per game during his streak.
Chourio is only hitting .194 this season against lefties, but he’s on the strong side of his splits on the road. With Paxton’s struggles and the rookie’s hot streak, Chourio is still a solid play under $4,000 in the outfield this Saturday. Here’s how the rest of the Brewers stack up on Saturday using our PlateIQ tool (which now comes in dark mode):
OF Eli White ($2,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
The Braves called up White earlier this week to help them fill in their outfield, and the 30-year-old utility player is expected to get the start against Suarez this Saturday. He has the highest Pts/Sal of all batters and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, behind only Bobby Witt.
White made his season debut on Friday but went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Even though he didn’t produce any fantasy points in his first game in the MLB this season, White does have good upside. He hit a very solid .294 in his 53 games in Triple-A this season while adding seven home runs and 18 stolen bases. His .390 wOBA and his speed potential give him plenty of upside against Suarez at the minimum salary if he gets another start.
