The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Brendan Rodgers ($3,700): Second Base, Colorado Rockies
Baseball is a sport steeped in tradition. One of the more recent practices that has emerged from the institution is the ability to identify a fantasy value play at Coors Field. Brendan Rodgers is the latest batter to emerge as an undervalued option, catching our eye as the Projected Plus/Minus leader in our model.
Rodgers’ position atop the value rankings is validated by his solid analytics profile and recent upward trajectory. Heading into Tuesday’s showdown against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Colorado Rockies second baseman has four multi-hit efforts across his last seven outings. Further, he’s driven in three and has come around to score four more times.
We’re anticipating more of the same from Rodgers in his hitter-friendly confines, particularly against a left-handed pitcher. The former third-overall draft pick rakes versus lefties, establishing a .582 slugging percentage and .950 OPS. That’s in addition to his 44.9% hard-hit rate on the season.
Rodgers has hit double-digit fantasy points in four of his last eight, a trend that should easily continue against the Brew Crew.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tarik Skubal ($10,500) vs. Minnesota Twins
There’s no better remedy for a cold streak than trotting your staff aces out for a crucial division showdown. Losers of five of their last seven, the Detroit Tigers are desperately trying to get their season back on track before heading into the All-Star Break. Thankfully, Tarik Skubal has the pedigree to right the Tigers’ course on Tuesday’s main slate.
After laboring through two starts, Skubal re-captured his Cy Young-leading form in his last start. The 27-year-old tossed 7.0 scoreless innings, reversing course on his lackluster efforts. That makes it 12 quality starts on the season, including four of his past six. With improving form, we should see Skubal throw smoke against the Minnesota Twins.
The Tigers ace has been an unstoppable force every time he toes the rubber. Skubal rates in the 89th percentile or better in several noteworthy categories, including expected ERA, whiff rate, and strikeout percentage. Even when things do go sideways, Skubal possesses the tools to pitch out of any jam, eliciting a 22.2% swing-and-miss rate on four of his five offerings.
Other than a rarely-used knucklecurve, Skubal mixes his pitchers effectively, keeping batters off guard at the plate. More importantly, we’re seeing that translate to tangible on-field results, with the Tigers’ southpaw ranking near the top of the leaderboard in nearly every advanced category. Skubal carries a hefty price tag, but he’s worth the investment against the Twins.
Hitter
William Contreras ($6,200) vs. Colorado Rockies
After a terrible start in the month of June, William Contreras is making a late push to be the starting catcher in the MLB All-Star Game. The Brewers catcher has been on a tear of late and like the aforementioned Brenden Rodgers, will benefit from the thin mountain air of Coors Field.
Entering tonight’s inter-divisional showdown versus the Rockies, Contreras is a beefy 6-for-13 over his last three outings. In total, he’s accumulated a double, home run, three runs scored, and two RBI over that stretch, and should see those numbers ratchet higher on Tuesday.
His elite bat speed and hard-hit rate put him 88th and 92nd percentile, respectively, yielding a top-end .471 expected slugging percentage. Compared to his actual rating of .451, there’s room for growth for Contreras.
That upward trajectory continues against Ryan Feltner. The Rockies probable starter has a generous 5.82 ERA this season, increasing to 7.43 at home. There, he’s given up six home runs and 60 baserunners across 36.1 innings, ensuring Contreras continues his recent performances.
Four of Contreras’ last nine hits have gone for extra bases, and that momentum carries him into tonight’s main slate. Although there are several noteworthy players available, we like Contreras’ ceiling the best. That position is reflected in our modeling, with Contreras ranking among the top batters in median and ceiling projections.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
George Kirby ($8,700) vs. Baltimore Orioles
George Kirby deserves better than the 7-5 record he’s been saddled with halfway through the 2024 season. The imposing right-hander is among the MLB leaders in ERA and WHIP but has gotten limited run support. Although we can’t speak for the assistance he’ll get from the offense against the Baltimore Orioles; we expect Kirby to end the night as one of the top-performing pitchers again.
Kirby hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs across his last six starts. Over that stretch, the former All-Star has given up seven earned runs spread out over 37.0 innings pitched for a tidy 1.70 ERA. Predictably, baserunners have been kept to a minimum, with only 33 batters reaching for an even more impressive looking 0.89 WHIP. Still, Kirby only has three wins over that stretch, a number that should start to climb with sustained efforts.
We’re also seeing the best Kirby has to offer in terms of strikeouts, amplifying his fantasy appeal. His K/9 rate has risen modestly to 9.5, above his season-long average of 8.7. His four-seamer continues to be his bread-and-butter pitch, an offering that’s inducing a 28.9% whiff rate and sitting batters down at a 32.7% rate. Throwing the pitch 36.5% of the time, Kirby should continue to get good results from his heater.
Lastly, T-Mobile Park has been Kirby’s fortress of solitude this season. He’s put up an MVP-worthy 2.35 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in seven home starts, going 5-1 along the way. Kirby’s not priced as it is, but his metrics and our projections support that he’s one of the best available on the main slate. Take advantage of his lower-than-deserved salary on Tuesday.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Yordan Alvarez ($5,500) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
No one is hitting the ball better than Yordan Alvarez right now. The Houston Astros slugger capped June with a 1.139 OPS, swatting seven dongs and 16 extra-base hits over 86 at-bats. Somehow, Alvarez set the bar even higher with his first start in July, an effort we expect him to match in Tuesday’s battle against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Alvarez is clobbering the ball right now. His .709 slugging percentage in the month of June has brought his season-long slugging percentage up to .528, but he’s still operating well below expected levels. The Astros designated hitter ranks in the 98th percentile in expected slugging percentage, putting together a .571 mark on the campaign, implying ongoing growth is anticipated. As expected that metric is being propped up by elite bat speed, hard-hit, and barrel rates, supporting that Alvarez is operating from a sustainable position.
We’re even more confident in this position, knowing Jose Berrios is on the mound for the Jays. The soft-throwing righty pitches to contact, a strategy that has earned Berrios a spot in the 28th percentile in expected ERA. Opposing batters are feasting on all of his offerings, with Berrios sitting with a sub-optimal .438 expected slugging percentage.
All of those concerns are amplified against the left-handed batting Alvarez. That’s an unneeded advantage for the 27-year-old as he bolsters his standing in the MVP conversation. Alvarez is heating up with the summer months, and Berrios is just gas on the fire.
Corey Seager ($5,000) vs. San Diego Padres
Seager remains one of the top-hitting shortstops in the bigs, and he should rake against Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres bullpen.
The left-handed batting Seager has an inherent advantage over righty Dylan Cease, but his advantage runs much deeper than that. The three-time Silver Slugger has the best analytics profile of any shortstop, sitting in the 93rd percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, and barrel rate.
Predictably, the best he has to offer always comes versus righties. Seager’s slugging percentage jumps 80 points, bringing his OPS from .672 to .862. Moreover, Cease doesn’t have anything in his repertoire that can keep Seager off-balance, sitting with a disastrous 10.8% barrel rate and putting him in the ninth percentile.
Seager enters tonight’s inter-league showdown on a seven-game hitting streak. We’re betting he adds to that total versus the Padres, resulting in more gaudy run production metrics at home. His salary has dropped, but Seager remains a top fantasy producer every time he takes to the field.
