The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,800) Detroit Tigers (-166) at Los Angeles Angels
That the Detroit Tigers are the heaviest favorites on the slate says a lot about Jack Flaherty. It also says a lot about the slate, as the Tigers’ -166 moneyline typically would be fairly middle of the road. Either way, Flaherty has been elite this season, with a 2.92 ERA and even better ERA predictors.
More importantly for DFS, his 33.3% ranks third in the MLB among qualified starters. He has two games with double-digit strikeouts, plus three more of at least nine. He also hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his starts over the last month.
All of which makes him a solid DFS option on a daily basis. He’s even more valuable tonight, thanks to the matchup with the Angels. They have an above-average strikeout rate and below-average wRC+ against righties.
Plus, it’s not like we have any other strong options. Flaherty will be massively owned on this four-game slate, but it’s still hard to justify fading him. I’ll get unique elsewhere and eat the chalk on the clear top pitcher. He leads our projections in median and ceiling by a wide margin.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Davis Daniel ($5,500) Los Angeles Angels (+140) vs. Detroit Tigers
Things get a bit more interesting behind Flaherty, with five of the slate’s eight pitchers bunched extremely tightly in terms of Pts/Sal projection in our models. The (slight) leader in that category is Davis Daniel, who’s making his first big league appearance of the season against the Tigers.
Daniel has just 12.1 innings of major league work to his name, coming across three relief appearances last fall. The 27-year-old is hardly a “prospect,” but he did have a 2.19 ERA across those outings. His ERA predictors range from slightly to considerably worse, with a 3.77 xERA but 6.00 xFIP.
Full-season projections have his ERA settling in the mid-fours, though with the Tigers being a plus-matchup for pitchers, there’s optimism he’s better than that tonight. They rank one spot ahead of the Angels in wRC+ against righties but also have a higher strikeout rate.
Either way, we don’t need much out of Daniel to justify his salary. That makes him a fine cash game play, with some GPP value depending on his ownership.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Andrew Abbott ($8,000) Cincinnati Reds (+110) at St. Louis Cardinals
Abbott is my favorite starter among those in the lower tier of ownership projection, with just a 16% mark despite the small size of tonight’s slate. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.40 ERA and 3.21 xFIP, plus he gets a nice upgrade by virtue of this game being on the road — since his home ballpark boosts home runs more than any other in baseball.
He also gets an upgrade to his typical performance by virtue of the matchup. The Cardinals are dreadful against lefties, with a 75 wRC+ that’s ahead of only Miami for worst in the league. All of which makes the Cardinals’ 4.6-run implied total somewhat surprising.
Some of it may be due to the results the last time he faced the Cardinals. St. Louis got to him for six runs in six innings in a game in Cincinnati a month ago. However, Abbott has gone at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in every start since. That game being in Cincinnati is also relevant since four of the six runs were on homers, and those might not have left other ballparks.
While Abbott doesn’t have massive upside, it wouldn’t take a lot to go right for him to post the second-highest score on the slate (behind Flaherty). That makes him my favorite GPP option on the slate at his small ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
One of the reasons I’m comfortable paying up to be contrarian at pitcher is due to the hitter landscape. The Detroit Tigers somehow have the highest implied total on the slate at 4.9 runs while checking in at just $4,000 per player for their first five projected hitters.
They’re also taking on what’s expected to be the second most popular starter on the slate in Davies, so stacking Detroit creates a decent amount of leverage — crucial on tonight’s slate.
Combined with the correlation between the Tigers’ offense and Flaherty, that provides plenty of game theory justification for a Detroit onslaught. A word of caution, though. Detroit’s lineup order tends to be extremely fluid, so check back in this afternoon/evening to make sure you’re getting the top-of-the-order hitters you want.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B ($4,300) Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)
The next order of business in building a unique lineup around Flaherty is rostering hitters against Miles Mikolas ($7,500) since the Cards starter trails only Davis and Flaherty in ownership projection. Mikolas has considerably worse numbers against lefties this season, with their OPS more than 100 points higher against him than righties.
The Reds pair of switch-hitting infielders fit the bill, as becomes apparent in PlateIQ:
While Elly De La Cruz ($6,100) is projecting better overall, considering their costs, I prefer Candelario. He does his best work against righties, while De La Cruz has better numbers against lefties, though, of course both can be played together.
Juan Soto ($6,200) New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
With injuries elsewhere in the lineup and a struggling pitching staff, the Yankees are 2-8 in their last ten games. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge ($6,500) are still playing well, though, and are becoming the 2024 version of the classic Ohtani/Trout tweet:
every time I see an Angels highlight it’s like “Mike Trout hit three homes runs and raised his average to .528 while Shohei Ohtani did something that hasn’t been done since ‘Tungsten Arm’ O’Doyle of the 1921 Akron Groomsmen, as the Tigers defeated the Angels 8-3”
— ℳatt (@matttomic) May 18, 2021
While New York has a smaller implied total than the Tigers, their production is much more heavily concentrated on these two players. They’re strong options if building Detroit stacks involving fewer outfielders and/or using cheaper pitchers on Thursday.
Andres Giminez 2B ($4,500) Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (Michael Wacha)
Another option I like for stacks is the Guardians, who are taking on Michael Wacha ($7,000) of the Royals. Wacha has been solid overall with a 4.07 ERA, but lefties have a .335 wOBA against him. He’s much tougher on righties, who have a .271 wOBA.
Cleveland’s projected lineup is exclusively left-handed or switch hitters, so we have plenty of options. Giminez trails only Jose Ramirez ($6,000) in median projection while coming in $1,500 cheaper, making him my starting point.
