The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Another great weekend of fantasy baseball gets underway this Friday, and there are 10 games on the main DraftKings slate, which gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Coors Field is in play as the Rockies host the Nationals, and there are also some very interesting interleague matchups including the two teams from Los Angeles going head-to-head and the Braves stopping in the Bronx to take on the Yankees. There are lots of ways to attack the slate, so let’s see what the models say about the strongest plays.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby ($9,400) Seattle Mariners (-162) at Miami Marlins
Kirby and the Mariners face the Marlins in Miami and are the third-heaviest favorites on the main slate. The Marlins have the lowest implied run total on the slate, and Kirby has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-highest in THE BAT X projections.
One reason Kirby has the edge over the other high-priced options is that he is in a soft matchup against the Marlins. Miami has scored the second-fewest runs in the MLB this season and has the second-lowest team wOBA. Over the last 30 days, they have averaged just 3.0 runs per game while hitting just .236 with a .275 wOBA.
Kirby comes into this favorable matchup throwing the ball well. He has only given up a total of four earned runs over his last four starts, with 27 strikeouts in 24 innings. He put up over 18 DraftKings points in each of those four starts, which resulted in two no-decisions and two wins. This season, Kirby is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 2.97 FIP, but he has found a good groove on the mound while the Marlins have been lost at the plate.
Chris Sale and Dylan Cease each have lots of upside and could outscore Kirby, but they could also be disasters in tough matchups against strong lineups. Kirby has almost the same ceiling and is in a much softer matchup, which is why he’s my preferred stud option.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Rodon ($8,600) New York Yankees (-105) vs. Atlanta Braves
Rodon isn’t extremely cheap at this salary, but he still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the 20 scheduled starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the seventh-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. If you’re looking for a bargain option, check out my GPP pick below, but Rodon is positioned to out-produce his price tag in this home game against the banged-up Braves.
The 31-year-old lefty was on a great run before slipping up in his most recent start against the Red Sox. Before being roughed up at Fenway, he had won seven straight starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in each outing. He is 9-3 in his 15 starts this season with a 3.28 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 8.58 K/9. He posted over 17 DraftKings points in each of his games during that personal seven-game winning streak and will look to get back in that groove against the Braves.
Atlanta’s offense is still formidable, but the Braves are missing some thunder without Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Michael Harris (hamstring). Over the last month they rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive measurements and aren’t a “must avoid” matchup like they were earlier this season.
Rodon has been especially strong at home with a 2.30 ERA and 3.30 FIP this year at Yankee Stadium. He should be in a strong bounce-back spot against Atlanta.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
DJ Herz ($6,300) Washington Nationals (-113) at Colorado Rockies
Herz is a perfect high-risk, high-reward play for GPP lineups. In the FantasyLabs projections, Herz has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all 20 starting pitchers. He also has the third-highest strikeout prediction on the entire slate.
The 23-year-old lefty was stunning in his last outing, piling up 13 strikeouts in six innings and giving up just one hit against the Marlins. He earned his first MLB win along with an impressive 42.9 DraftKings points. His ceiling is obviously very high with that kind of strikeout upside, and he has shown that kind of ceiling throughout his rise through the minors with 53 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings at Double-A last year, followed by 42 strikeouts in 36 innings at Triple-A before being called up this year. He has only made three MLB starts, but his 3.77 ERA backed up by a 2.17 FIP and 21 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.
As obvious as Herz’s upside is, the risk factors are also apparent. He has very limited MLB experience, and he has to deal with pitching in the brutal environment of Coors Field. This will be his first road start in the majors, so it’s hard to know exactly what to expect.
His volatility and wide variance of potential results make him tough to rely on, but his upside makes him a great option if you’re looking to boost your GPP ceiling and can afford the additional risk.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Projected Points using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Coors Field effect boosts the Nats to their spot as the top stack, especially since they get a great matchup against Dakota Hudson. Hudson has a 2-9 record in his 14 starts with a 4.89 ERA and matching 4.89 FIP. He has actually been pretty solid on the road but has a 7.01 home ERA and has let opponents hit .323 with a .397 wOBA against him at Coors Field. Hudson specifically struggles with left-handed batters, who have a .348 wOBA against him on the season and are hitting a blistering .387 with a .473 wOBA against him at Coors Field.
As a result of those splits, switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz makes sense, along with lefties Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario, who have both shown power potential this season. From the right side, Lane Thomas always brings a high ceiling with his good blend of power and speed and has produced 10.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 13 contests.
At the top of the lineup, C.J. Abrams will be a key name to watch for in the lineup since the leadoff-hitting shortstop would be an elite play if he’s ready to return from a few days off due to a cyst on his wrist. Abrams was playing great before missing the last two days and is worth paying up as part of this stack if he’s ready to return.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
1B Nolan Schanuel ($3,300) Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers (Landon Knack)
Schanuel sky-rocketed to the majors last season, but the 22-year-old had a hard time adjusting to MLB pitching. He hit .275 with a .337 wOBA in 29 games last year but was only hitting .207 with a .269 wOBA through his first 57 games this season.
The Angels stuck with Schanuel, though, and even continue to use him at the top of the lineup. He’s showing signs of starting to come around and has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 1B on Friday’s slate. Over his last eight games, Schanuel is 11-for-28 (.393) with eight walks, five runs scored, two doubles, a home run, and a stolen base.
Of all catchers in the MLB this season, Wong has the highest batting average and fifth-highest wOBA. He’s hitting .332 with five homers, a .375 wOBA, and a 140 wRC+. Wong has been even better against lefties, hitting .355 with a .404 wOBA. The 28-year-old backstop also has done most of his damage on the road, so all the splits and signs point to him being poised to return excellent value against Abbott.
C Connor Wong ($3,500) Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Wong had the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all catchers, even beating out Ruiz at Coors Field. The Red Sox game Wong a couple of maintenance days in Toronto this week, but he’s expected to play all three games this weekend in Cincinnati, according to manager Alex Cora.
The 28-year-old is having a breakthrough season and is still surprisingly affordable. He has the highest batting average of all regular catchers this season with the fifth-highest wOBA. He’s hitting a solid .332 with five home runs, a .375 wOBA, and a 140 wRC+. While the Red Sox have a high K% against lefties as a team, Wong has been very effective against southpaws like Andrew Abbott. He has hit .355 with a .404 wOBA in the split and also has done most of his damage when the Red Sox are on the road.
The Red Sox are one of the better value stacks available and should be in a good run-scoring environment at Great American Ballpark. Here’s how Wong and the rest of the Sox stack up against Abbott using our PlateIQ tool:
OF Miguel Vargas ($2,900) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
Vargas was recalled when Mookie Betts (wrist) landed on IL, and he should get the start on Friday night since the Dodgers are facing a lefty. He has the third-highest ceiling projection of the OF under $3,000 and the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in that price range, according to the aggregate projections.
Vargas has made the most of his limited opportunities, going 3-for-6 with a double, a walk, and two RBI since returning to the team on Monday. He has hit .308 in his 10 games in the MLB this year with one home run, one stolen base, and an average of 7.4 DraftKings points per contest. At Triple-A, Vargas hit .290 in 41 games this season with eight home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .436 wOBA.
He brings both power and speed potential if he gets the start against Sandoval, so rolling with him under $3,000 is a great way to save some salary and still have a good ceiling.
