As it currently stands prior to weigh-ins, we have an 11-fight card in Saudi Arabia, headlined by former champion Robert “Bobby Knuckles” Whittaker taking on Ikram Aliskerov.
Thanks to the time difference, this card kicks off at a special 12:00 p.m. ET start time, so be sure to have your lineups ready to go early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Robert Whittaker ($8,400) vs. Ikram Aliskerov ($7,800)
One of many reshuffled fights on the UFC Saudi Arabia card is the main event. Robert Whittaker was originally booked to fight Khamzat Chimaev before Chimaev withdrew due to illness. In his place stands Ikram Aliskerov, who had his fight moved from last week to this week and got a much tougher opponent in the process — more on his original opponent in the next section.
Aliskerov is 15-1 as a pro, with his only loss coming against Chimaev. Which, by definition, makes this a somewhat easier fight for Whittaker, the former middleweight champ. Which isn’t to say it’s an easy fight, as Aliskerov has finished all three of his UFC/Contender Series opponents in under half of a round.
Aliskerov is a far more technical striker than Chimaev while providing fewer (but not zero) threats in the grappling department. That’s a better on-paper matchup for Whittaker, though certainly a big stylistic shift.
Aliskerov is certainly dealing with more adjustments anyway. He went from fighting a UFC debutante to a former champion halfway across the world on a different date. Based on the timing of the announcement, he was probably already cutting weight for his original fight and now has to go through the process of “peaking” all over again.
For that reason, I expect Whittaker to take over late. Aliskerov already had questionable cardio, and this will be his first career five-round fight. For DFS purposes that makes Whittaker my preferred option, though Aliskerov has plenty of early-finish upside.
The Easy Chalk
Sharabutin Magomedov ($8,800)
Through more shuffling, Aliskerov’s original opponent, Antonio Trocoli ($6,700), is now fighting Shara “Bullet” Magomedov, the latest seemingly unbeatable Dagestani prospect. This fight was announced just late enough for Magomedov to keep his original DFS salary, making him a massive value as a -650 favorite.
He’s pretty much a lock to have the highest ownership on the slate, as he should be priced $700 higher based on his opponent’s salary. We’ve seen very little of him at a high level, but he’s 10-0 with 10 knockouts and is a creative and dynamic striker. He landed over 100 significant strikes in a three round decision win in his debut, good for 97 points even without a finish.
Finish props still aren’t up for this fight, but the under 1.5 rounds are set at -154, so it’s a fairly safe bet he doesn’t need all 15 minutes. Plus, Trocoli has to deal with all of the same issues as Aliskerov, which can’t help his case.
On the other hand, any lineup that fades Magomedov should absolutely contain Trocoli, as their combined salaries are much cheaper than the typical fight, and he provides massive leverage on the field. I won’t go that way in many lineups, but it’s worth a sprinkle.
The Upside Play
Sergei Pavlovich ($8,700)
Pavlovich is looking to bounce back from just his second career loss, an interim heavyweight title fight in which he was starched by Tom Aspinall in just over a minute. That fight was a last-minute addition to the UFC 295 card (originally headlined by Jon Jones), so probably doesn’t tell us much about his abilities.
Prior to that, he had rattled off six straight first-round wins, including sub-one-minute victories against contenders Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. He’s a massive power puncher with a huge 82″ reach. He’s essentially a real-life Ivan Drago — which is ironic since that’s his opponents nickname.
Alexander Volkov ($7,500) was Pavlovich before Pavlovich showed up, another massive Russian heavyweight. He’s the more well-rounded of the two, with solid grappling when he needs it, but he prefers to settle things with striking as well.
He has nowhere near the power and athleticism of Pavlovich, which should be the deciding factor here. Pavlovich is nearly even money (+120) for a first-round win, which would obviously see him to the optimal at his salary.
However, it could get hairy after that, as the favorite hasn’t seen a second round in more than seven years. If Volkov can survive the initial storm, he’s a live dog, so I’ll have him sprinkled in a lineup or two as well.
The Value Play
Felipe Lima ($7,900)
There are a few directions we can go here, with five of the 11 fights on the card favored to see the judges. However, Lima also has the best line movement, having flipped the odds to become the favorite while retaining his $7,900 price tag.
He’s making his UFC debut on short notice against Muhammad Naimov ($8,300), who’s 3-0 in the UFC but with relatively questionable victories. One of his wins was a knockout over Jamie Mullarkey — whose chin has totally departed him, having been knocked out four times in two years. Another was due to a freak injury to Erik Silva.
To be honest, I am a bit surprised a the line movement here, as I thought Naimov was a deserving favorite. Lima is not only stepping in on short notice but stepping up a weight class, which is a tough combination.
With that said, the market is obviously seeing something here, and Lima, at worst, has a high floor thanks to the solid odds this one goes all 15 minutes. That makes him a great cash play, though I have my reservations for GPPs.
The Contrarian Choice
Nicolas Dalby ($7,000)
With the possible exception of Trocoli — who’s primary selling point is simply low ownership — there’s an argument to be made for each of the five cheapest fighters on the card Saturday. You probably have to play one of them if you want the high-upside favorites, with Dalby being my favorite choice.
He’s on a four-fight winning streak, with the last three of those all coming as an underdog. Originally a karate stylist, he’s an underrated grappler who seems to have undergone a late-career resurgence. His advanced age (39) is my biggest concern in this fight, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down lately.
He has a tough test this time against Rinat Fakhretdinov ($9,200), who’s undefeated over the last decade, including through four UFC appearances. However, he’s only finished one opponent: Kevin Lee, who tore his ACL while entering the cage.
That leaves the door open for Dalby, who should have a massive cardio edge. Dalby tends to build throughout the fight, while Fakhretdinov’s relentless wrestling tires him out. He dropped the third round 10-8 on two scorecards in his last bout, which ended in a majority draw.
Dalby is a high-floor cash game option with plenty of GPP upside. He could get there on volume in a decision loss, while a win should almost certainly see him make the optimal lineup.
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The Swing Fight
Johnny Walker ($8,200) vs. Volkan Oezdemir ($8,000)
The tightest fight on the card is the main card opener between top-ten light-heavyweights Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker. Oezdemir has hung around the top of the division since his unsuccessful title challenge in 2018, going 4-5 in the ensuing years.
Walker is just slightly younger at age 32 but still retains a bit of “prospect” status. He’d finally seemed to have struck a balance between technical striking and his wild antics over the past few years, putting together a three-fight win streak from 2022-2023 against relatively high-ranked opponents.
That momentum was halted by Magomed Ankalaev in his last bout, a knockout loss in January. Like many of Walker’s fights, he was winning the fight — until he didn’t. His loose style gets him into trouble from time to time, and Ankalaev punished his lack of defensive responsibility.
However, that’s precisely what makes this such a good DFS fight. Both fighters bring plenty of power, and it has -235 odds to end by finish. Walker is the more dynamic striker but also leaves more openings for his opponent.
I’m leaning towards Walker, as he has slightly better odds to pick up an early win. However, it’s extremely close. The salary structure and small card also mean the winner should make the optimal even without a quick finish.
Therefore, I’ll have a healthy dose of both fighters in my GPP lineups. I don’t have a strong enough feeling towards either to consider them for cash games, though they’d be a solid option if you do.
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