The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jarred Kelenic ($3,200): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves
When Ronald Acuna Jr. went down with a season-ending left ACL tear, the Atlanta Braves knew they would have to maximize production from the rest of their lineup. Thankfully, Jarred Kelenic was up to the challenge, earning a promotion to the top of the lineup with his recent efforts. We’re anticipating more of the same from the Braves outfielder as they take on the Detroit Tigers for the penultimate contest of a three-game set.
Kelenic is riding a five-game hitting streak into tonight’s inter-league battle, but his proficiency at the plate stretches back to the end of May. Over that stretch, the former first-round pick has hits in 12 of 16 with an improved .556 slugging percentage, representing three homers, three doubles, and a triple. Naturally, that correlates with improved run production, with Kelenic accounting for six runs scored and eight driven in.
Moreover, Kelenic’s underlying metrics validate the ongoing success at the dish. He rates in the 77th percentile with a 46.3% hard-hit rate and 90th percentile with a 39.7% sweet spot rate. That’s in addition to his above-average bat speed, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
The Braves are relying on Kelenic for sustained production, and he’s responded to the challenge. We’re betting he continues that charge into Tuesday’s showdown against Casey Mize, who surrenders a concerning amount of hard contact every time he’s toeing the rubber. Kelenic’s fantasy ascent continues, but he remains an underappreciated asset.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($9,300) vs. Chicago White Sox
Through his first two starts of the month, Framber Valdez was absolutely sensational; however, that momentum was disrupted in his most recent outing. Nevertheless, we like the Houston Astros pitcher to get back to his elite ways with a strong showing against the lowly Chicago White Sox on tonight’s main slate.
Valdez was hit hard last time out. The two-time All-Star was tagged for five earned runs across 4.0 innings pitched against the San Francisco Giants, halting an impressive streak. In his two starts prior to that, Valdez had allowed just one earned run in each contest, totaling 16.0 innings pitched and a complete game. Further, we saw the return of his high-end strikeout potential as Valdez sat down eight Los Angeles Angels batters in his complete game effort.
There are several indicators suggesting that Valdez should continue his growth against the White Sox. First, he’s operating below normal ranges in several advanced categories. Specifically, his 18.6% strikeout percentage is below his career average of 23.0%. Additionally, he’s decreased his barrel rate while lowering his launch angle, inducing more soft groundball contact. Consequently, he’s less prone to giving up home runs, which was an issue at times last time. Lastly, Valdez benefits from hurling against a White Sox team that ranks second last in OPS and dead last in runs scored.
Valdez is primed for a bounce-back effort Tuesday at Guaranteed Rate Field. He was finally starting to see better on-field results, reflecting his improved standing in several key analytics categories. With Chicago offering little resistance, he’ll continue that trajectory on the main slate.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,400) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Kansas City Royals continue their nine-game road trip, kicking off a three-game series versus the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night. Led by Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are in the running for their first division crown since 2015, and an inter-divisional showdown against the A’s inches them closer to their ultimate goal.
Irrespective of the opponent, Witt Jr. and the Royals have put their best foot forward every time they step onto the diamond. The former second-overall selection already leads the league in runs and hits, inching closer to the league lead in RBI with 51 on the year. Predictably, this success is grounded in elite analytics, indicating that Witt Jr. has struck a sustainable balance, if not left himself room to grow.
The Royals shortstop has better analytics than virtually everyone else in baseball. He rates in the 99th percentile in expected batting average, falling modestly to the 98th rung in expected weighted on-base average and expected slugging percentage. Moreover, his OBP is 50 points shy, and his slugging percentage is 60 short of those benchmarks, implying that Witt Jr. has yet to reach his pinnacle.
Not that he needs it, but Witt Jr. has the added advantage of teeing off lefty Hogan Harris tonight. The A’s starter gives up an alarming 10.3% barrel rate, contributing to a sub-optimal 4.59 expected ERA. That gives the right-handed batting Witt Jr. an unfair advantage as he cements himself as a frontrunner in the AL MVP conversation.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($9,000) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Minnesota Twins have designated Pablo Lopez as the starter in tonight’s series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays. Given his solid underlying metrics, track record at home, and the Rays’ offensive inefficiencies, the hard-throwing righty should have no problem reaching his fantasy ceiling on Tuesday night.
Lopez is better than his traditional stats imply. Toting around a lackluster 6-6 record and 5.33 ERA, the 28-year-old has a significantly more appealing analytics profile. He rates in the 71st percentile or better in nearly every category, including 73rd in expected ERA, 95th in extension, and 75th in strikeout rate. More importantly, that position supports that Lopez is a progression candidate for his coming start.
Not surprisingly, Lopez reserves his best efforts for his friendly confines. His ERA drops from 6.16 on the road to 4.50 at Target Field, with his home runs per nine innings getting cut nearly in half, going from 2.13 to 1.18. Those are promising metrics as Lopez and the Twins head into a crucial three-game set versus a team they are competing against for an AL wild card spot.
The Rays haven’t been able to replicate the stats that have made them a playoff team five years running. They rank fifth-last in runs scored and third-last in OPS, giving Lopez plenty of wiggle room as he looks to round into his former all-star form. Our algorithm supports that he’ll inch closer to that standing, with Lopez leading the way in our median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Yordan Alvarez ($5,400) vs. Chicago White Sox
Yordan Alvarez has recaptured his MVP-worthy form with his recent efforts. The Astros slugger got off to a tepid start in 2024 but has elevated his OPS to 1.212 in the month of June. That’s just the tip of the iceberg for the former Rookie of the Year, who remains well short of his expected benchmarks across the board.
With nine home runs through the first two months of the season, Alvarez has nearly matched that production through the first two and a half weeks of June. Already, the two-time all-star has five long fly balls, representing nearly half of his 11 extra-base hits. In doing so, he’s put together a .788 slugging percentage this month. Still, his season-long benchmark of .511 is still below his expected slugging percentage of .561, implying the best has yet to come.
White Sox probable starter Jonathan Cannon can expedite some of that growth. The rookie right-hander has been serving up meatballs this season, ranking in the 37th percentile in barrel rate and sixth percentile in hard-hit rate. That plays into Alvarez’s strengths, sitting in the upper echelon of MLB hitters in both categories.
Alvarez has one of the most appealing ceilings on the main slate. He’s been one of the hottest hitters in the league over his recent sample and should have no problem feasting on Cannon’s offerings. Include Alvarez on your rosters tonight.
Teoscar Hernandez ($6,000) vs. Colorado Rockies
You can’t talk about the Los Angeles Dodgers without bringing up the likes of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. But Teoscar Hernandez has quietly asserted himself as a top contributor in that lineup. Although his salary reflects his ceiling on tonight’s main slate, the Dodgers outfielder is still worth the investment against the Colorado Rockies.
Not even at the halfway point of the season yet, Hernandez has almost matched the 26 home runs he had in 2023. Heading into tonight’s NL West battle against the Rox, Hernandez has 17 homers, putting him on track to surpass his previous career-high of 32. Of course, that correlates with top-end run production, with Hernandez’s 51 RBI ranking fourth in the National League.
As is the case with many of our selections, there’s a progression component to Hernandez’s appeal. The two-time Silver Slugger is operating below expected levels in slugging and on-base percentage, implying that he should ratchet his stats even higher ahead of the All-Star break.
As we saw last night, Coors Field is a boon for run production. Hernandez can take advantage of that hitter-friendly environment again on Tuesday night, quietly reaching his fantasy ceiling in one of the most dangerous lineups out there.
