The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Pablo Lopez ($9,000) Minnesota Twins (-164) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
If you believe in regression (at least in terms of ERA regressing to ERA indicators), the price on Lopez is an absolute steal today. He has a 26% strikeout rate and 3.28 xERA heading into a matchup with the 24th-ranked offense against right-handed pitching in baseball.
The elephant in the room is Lopez’s actual ERA, which sits at an unsightly 5.33. Earlier in the season I’d be very confident in that number coming down to meet his ERA predictors, but I’m starting to have some doubts. He’s made 14 starts this year, and we’re nearly halfway through the 2024 season.
Whatever factors are causing him to be “unlucky” might be sticky at this point, be the bad defense, an elevated HR/FB rate, or anything else. Or they might not be, and he’ll return to the sub-4.00 ERA pitcher he’s been for the last few seasons.
The latter is probably still more likely, especially given how much of his ERA is driven by bad home run luck. His HR/FB ratio is over 16%, with an MLB average of 10.9%. This game has weather conditions that reduce homers by more than 30%, according to the MLB WeatherEdge tool at RotoGrinders.
With Vegas firmly on his side — the Rays have a 3.8-run implied total, Lopez is probably a solid play today. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs Models in median and ceiling projection, as well as K prediction.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Walker Buehler ($7,300) Los Angeles Dodgers (-182) at Colorado Rockies
While we typically prefer to avoid pitchers at Coors Field, the current state of the Rockies offense keeps their opponents in play. James Paxton held Colorado to one run through seven innings last night, and there’s a pretty compelling case that Buehler is in an even better spot.
Colorado is somewhat worse against right-handed pitching, striking out about three percent more with a wRC+ eight points lower. Depending on your metric of choice, Buehler is also the better pitcher than Paxton at this point, with a higher strikeout rate and lower xFIP and SIERA numbers.
Buehler is an interesting case this year, as his 4.64 ERA is bad, and his 5.55 FIP is worse, but all of his other underlying metrics are considerably better. Given that he’s made just seven starts, it’s a more comfortable bet that he’ll positively regress to those lower marks, though.
He trails only Lopez in Pts/Sal and K prediction in the FantasyLabs Models and makes a solid correlation play with his offense since they’re implied for a slate-high 6.4 runs tonight.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Alec Marsh ($7,600) Kansas City Royals (-135) at Oakland A’s
I’m going to try my best to build lineups with two cheaper pitching options today in order to save salary for all of the expensive bats that are projecting well on today’s slate. It’s another one where plenty of games have extremely solid hitting weather, and four teams are implied for at least five runs.
Which is where Marsh comes in. His opponent is projected to score the same number of runs as Lopez’s, with Oakland’s 3.8-run total. While he doesn’t have Lopez’s upside, there’s an argument that it’s close, thanks to Oakland’s 26.8% strikeout rate against righties.
Marsh has been solid in run prevention this year, with a 3.63 ERA and 3.97 xFIP. He’ll get a boost with the location of this game as well, which has the best Park Factor for pitchers on the slate. Coupled with his moderate strikeout potential, low salary, and manageable ownership, he’s a strong option.
I expect the combination of Marsh + another expensive arm to be more popular than Marsh and another value play, so keep that in mind when building lineups for GPPs. Marsh’s ownership isn’t all that low in a vacuum, but certain combinations will be more utilized than others.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
Houston is one of the teams mentioned above with a five-run or better implied total today, and they trail only the Dodgers with their 5.4 mark.
They’re also much cheaper than the equivalent Dodgers stack, checking in at $6,700 less in combined salary. That makes them the top team to stack on today’s slate in an elite matchup against Jonathan Cannon ($6,200) and the White Sox.
Cannon has a 5.23 ERA as a starter through his first four big-league starts, with his overall numbers somewhat better thanks to better numbers as a reliever. That’s problematic against a dangerous Houston team, especially with weather conditions set to boost home runs by more than 20% and overall scoring 18%.
Houston is an excellent option to get a premium stack for cheap, and can be paired with more expensive one-off options and/or pricier arms today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Teoscar Hernandez OF ($6,000) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
One of the reasons the Dodgers aren’t projecting as well as Houston today is because of the pitching matchup. Without Mookie Betts, the Dodgers’ best hitters are both lefties, making it difficult to pay a premium when taking on a southpaw.
However, a pair of their hitters have excellent splits against lefties, as is immediately apparent in PlateIQ:
That would be catcher Will Smith ($5,800) and Hernandez, both of whom are on the right side of their splits against lefties. Shohei Ohtani ($6,900) and Freddie Freeman ($6,300) have great numbers, too, but not as good as when they’re facing righties.
That makes Dodgers mini stacks with Smith, Hernandez, and potentially another player my preferred way to get exposure today.
Matt Chapman 3B ($4,800) San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
Unsurprisingly — with both games being played in the same city — the tremendous hitting weather that makes the Astros so appealing also is in effect for the game between the Cubs and Giants. The matchup for San Francisco isn’t one we’d typically go out of our way to target, as lefty Justin Steele ($8,200) has a 3.22 ERA on the season — but certain players stand out.
One of those is Chapman, who’s hit .333 against lefties but just .194 against righties on the season. He’s not the only one, though, as the Giants wRC+ as a team jumps more than 20 points against southpaws. They’re implied for 4.9 runs, with some stacks firmly in play today.
Jarred Kelenic OF ($3,200) Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers (Casey Mize)
We need to save salary somewhere today with all of the expensive hitters in play, and Kelenic is an excellent option. He’s too cheap for his leadoff role in the Braves lineup, considering Atlanta’s 5.2-run total today.
That’s not the only reason to roster him, though. There’s the matchup with Casey Mize ($6,000) and his 4.43 ERA. There are also Kelenic’s numbers — he has a solid .740 OPS, better than we’d expect for a player at his price range.
