The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes ($9,500) Pittsburgh Pirates (-190) vs. Cincinnati Reds
We’ve seen enough from Paul Skenes to believe he’s as good as advertised. The rookie has made six MLB starts this season and now has a 2.43 ERA, 1.96 xFIP, and 35.4% strikeout rate. He doesn’t have enough innings logged to qualify for official leaderboards, but his strikeout rate trails only Garret Crochet (and just barely) among qualified starters.
Now, he draws an extremely favorable matchup with the Reds. Cincinnati is a bottom-five offense by wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with a top-three strikeout rate. They can be annoying when they’re at home, thanks to their ballpark boosting home runs at a high rate, but this game is in Pittsburgh. Everything is pointing up for Skenes.
Especially his projected ownership, which is nearly double the second-place pitcher on the slate. Rather than fade Skenes, my strategy will be to find unique ways to build around him. He’s too good of an option to avoid entirely today, and pairing him with less-popular bats or another expensive arm should keep overall ownership to a manageable level.
Skenes leads THE BAT projections in median and ceiling and has a slate-high 7.17 K Prediction.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Yusei Kikuchi ($8,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-135) vs. Boston Red Sox
It would certainly be nice to find a cheaper option on today’s slate, with some expensive pitchers and the Dodgers visiting Coors Field. However, the flip side of that discussion is that with a few pricier options projecting well, you could fall well behind the field by rostering a lower upside option.
This leaves us with Kikuchi, who’s far from cheap but arguably the cheapest pitcher with a reasonable shot at leading the slate in scoring. He has a 3.26 ERA on the year, with similar underlying numbers and a 23.6% strikeout rate. He also has an excellent matchup/situation tonight against the Red Sox.
Boston is a far better team against righties than lefties. Against southpaws this year, their wRC+ as a team is five points lower, but more importantly, they strike out at the highest rate in the league. Kikuchi is already in line for some positive regression to his strikeout rate by virtue of his swinging strike rate — so facing the Red Sox makes him even more likely for that to happen.
Plus, this is one of the few games on the slate without weather conditions that favor hitters, so it makes sense to target at least one pitcher from the contest. Kikuchi leads THE BAT projections in Pts/Sal, narrowly ahead of Skenes.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Fried ($9,800) Atlanta Braves (-202) vs. Detroit Tigers
Fried has the lead over Skenes in median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs Models while coming in at around half of the ownership. That obviously makes him a very interesting GPP pivot on Monday, even if it means paying a bit of a salary premium to get to him.
Fried doesn’t bring the strikeout upside of Skenes (or arguably Kikuchi), with a 22.4% rate on the season. Unlike Boston, the Tigers are a low-strikeout team against lefties, with just a 21.2% rate. However, they’re much worse overall offensively, with just an 84 wRC+ against southpaws.
That doesn’t mean Fried can’t outscore Skenes, though. Fried has already thrown two complete games this season, one of those a three-hit shutout. He clearly has the ability to go deep into games and has a solid chance to do so here against a Tigers team with a Vegas total of just 3.4.
It’s not the likeliest outcome, but it’s certainly possible. Skenes and Fried combinations — while difficult to fit — are also an interesting way to capture upside at what should be pretty low combined ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
I couldn’t tell you when — or if — I last saw a hitter with a $7,000 salary on DraftKings, but we’ve got one today in Shoehei Ohtani. Now likely elevated to the leadoff spot in the Dodgers lineup, Ohtani has a massive opportunity with a game at Coors Field.
He and the Dodgers are implied for just under seven runs as of this morning and will probably close on the other side of that number. It’s obviously not just Ohtani driving that projection, as the top four hitters in the LA lineup all rank inside the top 25 in all of baseball in wRC+.
Now on the road in the best hitter’s park in baseball, with excellent hitting weather, the sky is the limit for the Dodgers. I’ll want some exposure in all of my lineups, though likely won’t be able to afford this specific stack.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nolan Jones OF ($5,100) Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (James Paxton)
There’s an argument to be made that the Rockies are the better stack tonight than the Dodgers — at least relative to salary. They’re implied for a very solid 5.4 runs, with their first five hitters coming nearly $7,000 cheaper than the equivalent Dodgers stack.
The best of the bunch is Tovar, who despite having a lefty-on-lefty matchup still stands out in PlateIQ:
I love this matchup with James Paxton ($7,100) in general. He has a 3.92 ERA, but ERA indicators over 5.00. With just a 13.8% strikeout rate, he’s particularly ill-suited to pitch at Coors Field, so I’m expecting runs from both teams today.
Brett Wisely 2B/SS ($3,000) San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (Javier Assad)
The Giants are implied for five runs today, largely thanks to elite hitting weather in the forecast at Wrigley Field. Current conditions boost home runs by an insane 58% and total runs by 27% according to the RotoGrinders WeatherEdge tool.
This makes getting their leadoff hitter for just $3,000 a great value, even if he’s unlikely to join in on the home run fun. Wisely is hitting .313 on the season and should have plenty of opportunities to score if he can get on base, making him a solid value on a slate where we need to save salary.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($5,700) Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
Nobody is going to be on Schwarber (or the Phillies in general) today, thanks to all of the expensive options with slightly better projections elsewhere on the slate. Which is precisely what makes him so interesting.
He’s taking on Randy Vasquez ($5,500), who has atrocious numbers against left-handed hitters on the season. Vasquez has allowed a .448 batting average and .707 slugging percentage against lefties this year, so Schwarber could be a big problem.
Philly in general is an interesting under-the-radar team today, with a 5.6-run implied total and — stop me if you’ve heard this already — excellent hitting weather today.
