The NBA Finals are back in action this Monday, as the scene shifts back to Boston after the Mavs staved off elimination with a huge win on Friday in Game 4. For Game 5, the Celtics are 6.5-point favorites, and the game total is set at 209.5. If Boston wins, the series will be over, and they’ll be set to raise banner No. 18, but the Mavs will look to force a Game 6, which would be Thursday back in Big D.
Both teams are fairly healthy, with the only real question mark being Kristaps Porzingis (Posterior Tibialis), who is questionable. The only other player on the injury report is Luka Doncic (thoracic contusion), who is listed as probable.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
After fouling out in Game 3, Luka Doncic and the Mavs had a huge statement win in Game 4. He actually fell short of salary-based expectations in each of those games, though, since his minutes were lower than expected in each game. He totaled just 29 points, five rebounds, five assists, and 48.25 DraftKings points in Game 4 but only had to play 33 minutes since the game turned into a rout.
On Monday, Doncic has the highest ceiling, median and floor projection, but only the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind Jayson Tatum (more on him below). Luka has battled nagging injuries throughout the playoffs and the Finals, but he still has an incredibly high ceiling due to his team-leading 32.4% usage rate and production rate of 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason. In the Finals so far, he has matched that average with exactly 1.44 DraftKings points per minute for 53.8 DraftKings points per game.
Doncic has an incredibly high ceiling but comes at a steep salary, and our projections indicate that Tatum may be the better per-dollar play even though Luka’s raw ceiling is unmatched.
While Luka carries most of the offensive workload for Dallas, Kyrie Irving serves as a strong secondary scoring option. He had two strong games in Dallas with 42.75 and 35.0 DraftKings points after struggling in the first two games of the series in Boston. He went 0-for-8 on three-pointers and 13-for-37 (35%) from the field in those two road games to start the series but shot over 45% in each of the Mavs’ two home games. If Dallas wants to force a Game 6, they’ll need Irving to play like he did the last two games as a complement to Luka.
Irving has the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in Monday’s game but only the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus and eighth-highest Pts/Sal. Kyrie could be a nice leverage play but brings high risk at his high salary.
The Celtics will look to end the series with a strong home game, and they’ll look to the two Jays to lead the way. Jayson Tatum has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in Game 5, behind only Luka, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in a utility spot. His salary is $2,400 less than Luka’s in a flex spot making it much easier to work him under your salary cap and still fill the rest of your roster with productive players.
Like most of the Celtics, Tatum had a miserable Game 4, but for the series, he is averaging 42.2 DraftKings points per game and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. He had over 55 DraftKings points in six of the seven playoff games before the Finals but has been held under 50 DraftKings points in each game in this series so far. It feels like a Tatum game is coming, and our projections indicate he is a great option to build your roster around as either a Captain pick or a utility play.
Coming off his MVP in the Eastern Conference Finals, Jaylen Brown posted over 40 DraftKings points in the first three games of the series as Boston built its 3-0 lead. He had 30 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds for 53.5 DraftKings points in Game 3 before shooting just 3-for-12 from the field and posting 13.75 DraftKings points in Friday’s Game 4 clunker.
Based on his production throughout the playoffs, Brown should bounce back with a strong showing in Game 5. He has the third-highest median, ceiling and floor projections in Monday’s contest behind just Luka and Tatum and has much better per-dollar projections than Kyrie as a secondary option. He has shown the potential to carry the Celtics with a monster game and has averaged a solid 1.02 DraftKings points per minute so far in the Finals.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
After the four stars, Boston’s backcourt duo of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White stand out as the best mid-range plays. Holiday has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at a utility spot, with White just behind him. Since Holiday is a little cheaper, I’d lean toward him if you can only fit one of the two guards on your team, but both are strong plays.
Holiday had 32.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 50.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 before two quieter contests in Dallas. During the series, he has averaged 31.1 DraftKings points per game and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. At only $7,000 in a utility spot and $10,500 as a Captain, Holiday offers plenty of salary relief and still brings that extremely high ceiling.
White had been rolling with over 33 DraftKings points in seven of eight games before participating in Friday’s letdown with just 13.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. He has shown throughout the playoffs that he can contribute in a variety of ways, and the versatile guard has had big scoring games and some less active contests. He is averaging 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in the Finals.
Kristaps Porzingis is questionable and could be extremely limited if he plays. His $8,000 salary as a utility play makes him hard to pay up for since he only played 21 and 23 minutes in his two games before suffering his latest setback.
If Porzingis is ruled out or extremely limited, Al Horford will likely continue to fill in his minutes and could be a great value at only $6,000 in a utility spot. Horford has produced 0.73 DraftKings points per minute in the Finals so far and has shot over 50% from the field. Horford has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players as a Captain’s pick and the fifth-highest in a utility spot, ahead of both Brown and Irving.
On the other side of the matchup, the Mavericks’ supporting cast struggled in Boston to start the series but exploded for a huge Game 4. Dereck Lively came off the bench with a second straight double-double and had 30 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes to raise his average for the series to 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. The rookie had under 12 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series before going off in the two games in Dallas. If you think Dallas extends the series, he’ll be a key contributor who has to step up.
Despite coming off the bench, Lively has been the more productive half of the Mavs’ tandem at center, with Daniel Gafford starting but playing very limited minutes. Gafford had 26.25 DraftKings points in Game 2 but has been held under 16 DraftKings points in the other three contests against Boston.
The highest ceiling of the Mavs starters besides Luka and Kyrie belongs to P.J. Washington. He had massive games against the Thunder but has been quiet against the Timberwolves and Celtics in the last two series. He had over 25 DraftKings points in each of the first three games of the series but only played 14 minutes in Game 4 and finished with 8.5 DraftKings points in the laughter.
In each of the two games in Dallas, Derrick Jones was limited to under 20 minutes as the Mavs gave their younger role players more work. He played 32 minutes and had over 20 DraftKings points in Game 2, so there is some potential if he gets the playing time, but the Mavs have been their most successful when some of their cheaper plays have been bringing energy off the bench in his spot. He is the cheapest starter on the board.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Sam Hauser ($3,400): Hauser has been the top player off the Boston bench this series and was about the only Celtic to have a decent scoring game in Game 4. He finished with 15 points on 5-of-7 from the field and made four three-pointers. He has over 15 DraftKings points in three of the four games in this series and is averaging 0.90 DraftKings points per minute while playing just over 15 minutes a game off the bench.
- Payton Pritchard ($2,800): Pritchard got some extra minutes in Game 4 but didn’t have a huge game. He typically gets 10+ minutes and a few opportunities to contribute for Boston regardless of the game situation, but he can get more time if the game gets lopsided in either direction. He’s only averaging 9.1 DraftKings points per game so far in the Finals but still works as a punt play since he does get work off the bench.
- Xavier Tillman ($2,200): Tillman has been Boston’s backup big of choice over Luke Kornet with Porzingis hurt. Tillman had 12 DraftKings points in 11 minutes in Game 3 but only 5.75 DraftKings points in seven minutes in Game 4. If Porzinigis is ruled out or is limited, Tillman could be in the mix again as a punt play, although the Mavs options in this price range have been better options in this series.
- Josh Green ($3,000): Green has averaged 18.4 minutes per game in the Finals and had double-digit DraftKings points in each of the two games in Dallas. He’s a little more expensive than ideal for a punt play and doesn’t bring quite Hauser’s scoring upside.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ($2,600): Hardaway had not scored a point in the series until hitting five three-pointers on Friday in Game 4. He exploded for 22.75 DraftKings points after totaling just 5.75 DraftKings points in the first three games of the series. That huge game seems like an outlier, but it was a reminder that he brings scoring potential off the bench at this price point.
- Maxi Kleber ($2,400): Kleber has played over 15 minutes in three of the four games in the NBA Finals and is one of the most significant contributors off the Mavs’ bench. He hasn’t posted many numbers but is getting enough opportunities to be a punt play option.
- Dante Exum ($2,200): Exum played a very limited role early in the Finals but was a key part of the Mavs rotation in Game 4. He had 10 points in 14 minutes off the bench for a series-high 15 DraftKings points. Whether it was just a one-time outlier or the start of a trend isn’t clear yet, but he did flash the potential to give an offensive boost in the Mavs’ second unit.
