The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Another busy Saturday in Major League Baseball has several strong slates in the afternoon to consider leading up to a very nice five-game slate on Saturday night. The featured slate begins at 7:15 p.m. ET with two divisional rivalries from the American League, as the Mariners host the Rangers, and the Red Sox and Yankees square off at Fenway. Three National League West teams host the final three games of the slate, as the Rockies welcome the Pirates to Coors Field, the Dodgers host the Royals, and the Diamondbacks take on the White Sox. There are plenty of ways to attack this 10-team slate, so let’s break down some of the highlights.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,900) Texas Rangers (+109) at Seattle Mariners
Eovaldi has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all Saturday night’s starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus using those projections. In the FantasyLabs projections, he has the second-highest ceiling and median projections and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
The Rangers lost their series-opener to the Mariners in a tight 3-2 contest, but they’ll look to bounce back behind Eovaldi Saturday night. Nasty Nate has a 3-2 record in his 10 starts, with a very solid 2.68 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He has 58 strikeouts in 57 innings and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six games.
After a brief stint on the IL with a groin strain, he has ramped back up to full strength and went seven innings against the Giants in his most recent start, earning 22.2 DraftKings points. He has over 22 DraftKings points in each of his last five games except his shorter outing in his return from the IL.
Eovaldi will be facing the Mariners for the first time this season but has a reputation for thriving in big game environments like this one. The Mariners still have the highest K% in the MLB and have scored the seventh-fewest runs in the league this season. As a team, they have a .221 batting average, which is the third-lowest in the MLB. Even though they lead the AL West, they have been a favorable matchup for opposing starting pitchers, so Eovaldi is a good stud to build around this Saturday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tommy Henry ($6,100) Arizona Diamondbacks (NL) vs. Chicago White Sox
Henry has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers using the FantasyLabs projections, and the lefty actually has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections as well since he’s in such a favorable spot against the White Sox.
In his seven games this season, Henry is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 5.19 FIP. He is expected to work as a bulk reliever on Saturday behind opener Scott McGough, but that actually has been working well for Henry, who doesn’t have to worry about reaching a minimum innings threshold to qualify for the win. Henry got the win in his last outing against the Padres, allowing two runs in 2 1/3 innings.
Before that victory over San Diego, Henry had been pitching well in Triple-A, going 3-1 in six starts for the Reno Aces with a 3.41 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. Henry could earn himself a permanent spot in the rotation with a few more strong outings since some of the D-Backs’ current starters have been scuffling.
The 26-year-old hurler is high risk but is the best cheap option by a wide margin since the others have been much worse and are in tougher matchups. Henry has a great matchup against the White Sox, who rank last in the MLB in runs, team batting average, team wOBA, and team wRC+. With only a 78 wRC+, the White Sox are well below the MLB average (100) and have continued to struggle lately, dropping five of their last six games and averaging only 2.7 runs per game over that stretch.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Carlos Rodon ($8,300) New York Yankees (-167) at Boston Red Sox
The Yankees will look to make it two in a row against the Red Sox on Saturday night, and they’ll give the ball to Rodon, who has a high ceiling based on his recent form but is high risk due to the matchup. Rodon has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT X projections.
Rodon already has nine wins in his 14 starts this season and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven starts. He has gone 7-0 in those seven starts, allowing three runs or fewer and working at least six innings in each of those seven outings. He has 38 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings over that span with a 2.28 ERA and 3.51 FIP. Rodon has totaled over 17 DraftKings points in each of those seven starts, with a high point of 29.7 DraftKings points two starts ago when he faced the Twins and had a season-high nine punchouts.
Against the Red Sox and Cooper Criswell, he has another good shot at a win on Saturday night. The Red Sox have been strong offensively overall, which is what makes Rodon risky, but they have had issues against left-handed pitchers. Boston leads the league in K% against lefties, so Rodon should be able to get some strikeouts to help compensate, even if he does allow a few runs.
The matchup in Fenway makes him a higher risk than Eovaldi, Yoshinobu Yamamoto,or George Kirby, but Rodon has been consistent enough to bring a high ceiling in this divisional matchup, making him a good GPP fit.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates are at Coors Field, and the elevation is enough to boost them to the top stack spot. They’ll face Rockies lefty Ty Blach, who is 2-4 this year with a 4.84 ERA and 4.28 FIP. He has held lefties to a .196 batting average but has allowed righties to hit .357 with a .401 wOBA. He’s dropped back-to-back starts by allowing four runs in five innings against the Reds and Cardinals.
Former Rockies player Connor Joe is a strong place to start since he is hitting .288 with a .367 wOBA against lefties on the season and should hit in the heart of the order against Blach. He’s also a .277 career hitter at Coors Field with an .830 OPS and 32 extra-base hits in 293 at-bats. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been even better than Joe against southpaws, hitting .341 against lefties with both of his two home runs this season and a .421 wOBA in the split.
In the outfield, Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Michael A. Taylor are all right-handed bats expected to be in the lineup. While Oneil Cruz is a lefty, he still could be an option since he brings so much raw potential, although he was scratched on Friday due to ankle soreness and could get another day off with Blach on the mound.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
SS Mookie Betts($6,200) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
In the aggregate projections, Betts has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate behind only his teammate Shohei Ohtani. He comes into this matchup riding an eight-game hitting streak and continues to be a top producer from the top of the Dodgers’ powerful lineup.
Betts is hitting .307 on the season with a .395 wOBA, 10 homers, and nine stolen bases to produce an average of 9.8 DraftKings points per contest. Eight of those 10 homers have come against righties like Seth Lugo, whom he’ll face on Saturday, and eight have come at home, where he has a .243 ISO.
Betts and the Dodgers beat the Royals on Friday night to open the series, and this game should be a well-pitched tight contest, as Lugo and Yamamoto go head-to-head. Betts has big enough upside to be a good option at SS and has a narrow edge in the aggregate projections over his superstar counterpart in this matchup, Bobby Witt.
OF Alex Verdugo ($4,100) New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Cooper Criswell)
Verdugo had a successful return to Fenway Park as a member of the Yankees on Friday night, homering, doubling, and producing 28 DraftKings points. He is projected to continue his big weekend on Saturday and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders not playing at Coors Field.
Over his last 24 games, Verdugo has hit .302 with four homers and a .353 wOBA. He has four multi-hit games in his last seven contests while hitting .355 with six runs scored and seven RBI. Verdugo had trouble staying focused and motivated at times during his years with the Red Sox, but going up against his former team should have him locked in for this favorable matchup against Criswell.
So far this season, Verdugo has become a key part of the heart of the Yankees’ very productive and star-studded lineup, and you can see how they stack up this Saturday using our PlateIQ tool:
2B Adael Amador ($2,600) Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Jared Jones)
Recent call ups can be a great source of value if you have to go cheap in a spot or two in your lineup. Amador has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters under $3,000 on this slate and brings a lot of upside even though he’s hitting at the bottom of the Rockies’ batting order.
With Brendan Rodgers (hamstring) sidelined, the 21-year-old Amador got the call up from Double-A, skipping Triple-A entirely for now. He has gone 3-for-18 (.167) in his five games in the majors with five strikeouts and a stolen base. Amador stole 22 bases in 21 games in Double-A for the Hartford Yard Goats while hitting .194 with seven homers and a .320 wOBA.
Even though his bat still needs to grow before he becomes a consistent MLB producer, his speed and power potential make him a great option at Coors Field, where plenty of runs are expected to be scored on Saturday night. Amador is more than just a punt play and represents an inexpensive way to get exposure to this Coors Field matchup.
