The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($9,500) Minnesota Twins (-245) vs. Oakland A’s
It’s a fun slate for pitchers, as there are at least three entirely reasonable strong picks on the slate, as well as a few fringe candidates. As such, there are a number of different viable ways to build lineups across different price points.
With that said, both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BAT’s agree that Ryan is the best raw option. He leads both models in median and ceiling, with a couple of points separating him from the rest of the pack. That’s a pretty significant lead, especially since his salary isn’t that far ahead of the other options.
Ryan has a 3.30 ERA and 27.4% strikeout rate this season, both numbers I’d consider just shy of elite. The matchup carries him the rest of the way there today, as Oakland is a bottom-ten offense with the second-highest strikeout rate against righties.
Ryan also leads the slate in ownership projection, but given the variety of options today it’s fairly easy to build unique lineups even with Ryan. That keeps him in the GPP conversation, and he’s a clear top option for cash games.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,500) Seattle Mariners (-165) vs. Chicago White Sox
Consider the entry on Castillo as our regularly scheduled reminder that “value” and “cheap” aren’t synonymous. Castillo isn’t really cheap on Thursday’s slate, but he stands out as the best value by a wide margin in both projection sets.
That’s because we rarely get pitchers at his price point with his elite Vegas data. Chicago is implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs, with the Mariners as moderate favorites. They’re tied for the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching (with the Rockies), so $8,500 is a value on almost any pitcher against them.
But Castillo isn’t just any pitcher. He has a solid 3.35 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate while averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game. His game log is all over the map, with four starts of at least 25 points and five in the single digits — but today’s matchup makes the former outcome more likely.
His ownership is similar to Ryan’s for the best on the slate, and I likely won’t play them together in tournaments. They’re an excellent cash game pairing, though, and I’ll have one or the other in my GPP lineups.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Garret Crochet ($9,400) Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. Seattle Mariners
Garret Crochet is by far my favorite semi-contrarian option today, thanks to his massive upside. He’s my preferred SP2 in lineups built around Ryan or Castillo, even if that means eating some negative correlation in terms of win bonus potential in the latter case.
He’s projecting for about half the ownership of the previously mentioned pitchers, with a combination of his price tag and moneyline odds keeping interest a bit lower. His ceiling is arguably the best on the slate, with a 34.3% strikeout rate that’s just 0.2% behind the league lead (among qualified starters).
That’s bolstered by the fact that the Mariners strike out at a high clip, 26.1% against lefties. Combined, that gives Crochet the best K Prediction in our models at 7.42.
Obviously, he needs to pick up some innings and keep runs down to post the best score, but he’s fairly likely to do that as well. He has a 3.33 ERA but even better ERA predictors on the year. This game is also one of the few without weather that helps hitters — by virtue of being indoors — and is at the best pitcher’s park in baseball.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
You probably aren’t getting to this full Dodgers stack and playing two of the top pitchers today, but it’s worth a shot. They’ve scored at least 11 runs in three of their last six contests, and nothing about today’s matchup against Michael Lorenzen ($7,000) suggests they can’t do so tonight.
While Lorenzen has a 3.05 ERA through 10 starts, all of his ERA predictors are at least 4.50, if not higher. He’s been getting extremely lucky, with that luck likely to run out against one of baseball’s best lineups.
It almost feels like a cop out suggesting that the Dodgers are a top stack, because that’s true on a daily basis. However, the salary dynamics of this slate means they should be less popular than usual, making it worthwhile to explore ways to fit them into your lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Corbin Carroll OF ($4,500) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
After a rough start to the season, Corbin Carroll is rounding into the form that saw him win National League Rookie of the Year in 2023. He was hitting .193 through April, .203 in May — and is now up to .300 in June.
As the leadoff man for a team with a five-run implied total, he’s in a good spot today. I also noticed something intriguing about opposing starter Griffin Canning ($5,000) using PlateIQ:
That’s a lot of red against lefties, with a large enough sample size to trust that something is going on. I’ll be focusing on left-handed hitters when stacking the Diamondbacks today, beginning with Carroll.
Francisco Lindor SS ($4,700) New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (Roddery Munoz)
While he isn’t exactly cheap, Lindor (and the Mets in general) is an interesting pivot from the Dodgers today, with a slightly higher implied total but considerably cheaper prices.
Lindor represents a $1,400 savings compared to Mookie Betts while projecting just behind him in THE BAT. It’s mostly driven by the matchup, though the weather conditions in New York also boost run production by 25%.
Ryan Jeffers C ($4,500) Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland A’s (Luis Medina)
The Twins are the fourth of the teams with an implied total of five or more runs today and like the Mets, represent a potential pivot from the expensive Dodgers. You can save $900 moving from LA’s Will Smith down to Ryan Jeffers while only giving up about a point of projection.
Jeffers doesn’t hit for average as well as Smith but is the better pure power option. He’s hit two more home runs and has a higher ISO. He also has a juicy matchup against Luis Medina ($5,500), who has a 5.23 ERA and 5.87 xFIP in 2024.
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