The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryce Miller ($9,000) Seattle Mariners (-247) vs. Chicago White Sox
Our strategy of blindly targeting righties against the White Sox didn’t work out yesterday — but only because Seattle’s listed starter was a late scratch. We’re going right back to that well today with Bryce Miller.
Miller would be worth considering even in a tougher matchup, as he’s improved his ERA to 3.80 and his strikeout rate to 24% in his second MLB season. Both are slight improvements from last year, and point to a young player continuing to get better.
Miller is a bit thin on upside, though. For all Chicago’s faults offensively, they strikeout at a roughly average rate. Coupled with Miller’s good-not-great strikeout rate, and we’re probably relying on a long start to get to a big score. I can live with that on this slate, though, as there aren’t really any massive ceiling options on the board.
Miller is by far the safest pick on the slate, with elite Vegas data and the highest median projection in THE BAT. With his reasonable salary, it’s tough to fade him in any contest format.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
David Peterson ($6,300) New York Mets (-149) vs. Miami Marlins
On the topic of elite matchups, we have a left-handed pitcher against the Marlins. Miami is a bad offense overall, ranking 28th with an 81 wRC+. They’re a truly awful team against lefties, with a 68 wRC+ that’s by far the worst in baseball.
Peterson is coming in with similar Vegas data as Miller, but at nearly $3,000 cheaper. While he’s clearly not the pitcher Miller is, he does hold a 3.02 ERA through two starts in 2024. His 10% strikeout rate is awful, but he finished 2023 at 26%, so certainly has room for improvement.
While I’m worried about his xERA and xFIP — both are over 5.00 — this isn’t the game where negative regression is likely to strike. I’m also willing to give him a bit of a pass, as one of his two starts this year came against the best offense in baseball against lefties in the Dodgers. The other was against Washington — but that’s still a tougher matchup than he faces today.
Peterson is a cash game lock, freeing up plenty of salary for hitters. He’ll likely carry heavy ownership, with the Peterson/Miller combo particularly chalky. For that reason, I’ll probably avoid that pairing for large-field GPPs unless I’m getting contrarian with my hitters.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Sonny Gray ($10,000) St. Louis Cardinals (-175) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The debate at the top today will be between Gray and Miller, and to an extent, it’s a discussion of talent vs. matchup. The case for Gray is based on the former, while the argument for Miller relies on the latter.
Gray has a 3.21 ERA in 2024, with all of his ERA indicators even lower. He also brings a 32.8% strikeout rate, which would be top five among qualified starters if he’d thrown a few more innings this year. That gives him the most upside of any pitcher on the slate, with a lower ownership projection than Miller.
It’s also not a tough matchup by any stretch against the Pirates. They rank just one spot ahead of the White Sox in wRC+ against righties, with a slightly higher strikeout rate. All told, it’s extremely close between the two top pitchers today, with the FantasyLabs models giving the nod in median and ceiling to Gray.
Essentially, it boils down to trading an extra $1,000 in salary for a moderate discount in ownership. That’s a trade I’m willing to make in large-field GPPs, but be mindful of how you construct the rest of your lineups. Popular value hitters make more sense in lineups with Gray, while with Miller, it’s probably worthwhile to look for less chalky bats.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
With their full-strength lineup finally back in place, the Yankees popped off for 10 runs last night, including three home runs. Nothing about today’s matchup suggests they’ll be slowing down.
They’re taking on journeyman opener Dan Altavilla ($4,000) at the outset of this one, followed by a Royals bullpen with a bottom-ten 4.25 ERA. Altavilla has just one MLB appearance since 2021, with a 5.75 ERA in his last season with more than 1.1 innings pitched.
The weather is also elite for offenses in this game, boosting homers by 19% and total scoring by 23%, according to the RotoGrinders WeatherEdge tool. Those numbers are relative to the typical game at Kauffman Stadium — the third-best park for overall offense by Park Factor.
Yankees stacks are pricey but could be well worth it with another offensive explosion. I’ll want some exposure at a minimum and, ideally, a full stack.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Masyn Winn SS ($3,800) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter)
It’s interesting that the Cardinals have been so bad against left-handed pitching this season (79 wRC+), considering their lineup has two players in Nolan Arrenado ($4,000) and Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) who were historically excellent against southpaws.
I took a look at PlateIQ to see what happened and if any Cardinals currently are hitting lefties well:
Leadoff hitter Masyn Winn seems like the lone bright spot. He’s a solid pivot from the Yankees Volpe at shortstop and should save both salary and ownership. That also allows you to build less popular Yankees stacks, a solid strategy for GPP lineups with the chalky pitching combination.
Mark Vientos 3B ($3,600) New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (Braxton Garrett)
Speaking of lefty mashers, it’s worth taking a look at the splits on Vientos. He’s hitting .385 with a 1.198 OPS against southpaws this season, albeit in a limited sample size of 44 plate appearances.
Still, those are encouraging numbers. Especially against the lefty in question, Braxton Garret ($7,100), who has a 5.81 ERA through five starts. This is another game with excellent hitting weather as well, with projected conditions that boost home runs by nearly 20% and runs by 13.7%.
With his ownership likely to come in at the very low single digits, he’s an excellent GPP flier.
Michael Stefanic 1B/3B ($2,100) Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi)
Just like yesterday, Stefanic is extremely cheap while set to hit first in the Angels lineup. He scored a solid eight points on DraftKings yesterday, 4xing his minimum salary. DraftKings has bumped him up to $2,100 today, but it’s still too cheap.
With Los Angeles implied for a solid four-run total, I’d roster almost anyone in their leadoff spot at this price. Keep riding this horse until his salary rises to where it should be.
