The Boston Celtics took care of business at home, winning the first two games of the NBA Finals. With the series shifting to Dallas, the Mavericks are surprisingly 2.5-point home favorites in Game 3. Both games easily hit the under which is why the total has dropped to only 212.5 points tonight. In desperation mode, expect a rejuvenated Mavericks team. The Celtics have a chance to basically put this series to bed tonight.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Luka Doncic has been the best player on the floor, but the Mavericks have nothing to show for it. He is coming off a 32-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double in Game 2 while shooting 12-for-21 from the field in 42 minutes. Doncic is very expensive, but he easily has the highest projected ceiling in our Player Model. Playing at home in a game they have to win, it is hard not to roster Doncic in the captain spot.
Doncic also leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus while being projected for a 34.5% usage rate. Even at his price point, Doncic has a 97% Bargain Rating. It is unlikely that anyone will sniff his ceiling, which makes him simply the best play on the slate. Whether he is in the captain or utility spot, getting exposure to Doncic is a necessity with the Mavericks playing with their backs against the wall.
Jayson Tatum nearly joined the triple-double crew with 18 points, 12 assists, and nine rebounds in Game 2. Ironically, it was just the third time in his last 14 playoff games that Tatum did not record double-digit rebounds. However, he shot a pitiful 6-for-22 from the field after shooting 6-for-16 in Game 1. His usage rate is high, but Tatum can not buy a shot right now. Luckily, his peripherals have exceeded expectations.
It does not seem like a matchup concern because Tatum is getting great looks. With the second-highest projected ceiling and usage rate along with the highest projected minutes after playing 45 in Game 2, it is very enticing to roster Tatum in tournaments. His high price tag will likely keep his ownership in check. If Tatum can find his shooting touch, he is arguably the only player who can battle with Doncic at the top.
There is a sizeable salary drop-off to Jaylen Brown from Jayson Tatum, which makes Brown look that much better in our tools. Brown has been a model of consistency over his first two games of this series. He has 22 and 21 points through the first two games while shooting a combined 15-for-27 from the field. His three steals in each game proves how critical he is to the Celtics’ success on both ends of the floor.
Brown has seen his salary continue to rise $200 in each game throughout the NBA Finals. He also has the third-highest projected usage rate for tonight’s game, and his consistent shooting has propelled him to one of the best plays on the slate. Brown has shot less than 50% from the field in three of his 16 playoff games. He has a ceiling to target in tournaments and a consistency that makes him a cash game option.
If Kyrie Irving keeps playing how he did in the first two games, he may not have to go back to Boston. In back-to-back games, Irving has averaged 14 points, four assists, and only 23.9 DraftKings points per game. During that stretch he has shot 35.1% from the field and a combined 0-for-8 from behind the arc. It has been a first two games to forget about for Irving, who returns to Dallas in a basically must-win scenario.
Despite two poor games, Irving still has the third-highest projected ceiling on this Showdown slate. After putting on a clinic against the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, it is expected that Irving will have a bounce-back performance in Game 3. His salary dip to $8,800 is the lowest it has been all postseason making him that much more enticing. Irving is simply too cheap for this Game 3 opportunity.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Kristaps Porzingis has a price dip from $8,600 to $8,000, which now puts him in the midrange. After a great Game 1, Porzingis followed that up with a solid Game 2 before suffering a torn medial retinaculum in the third quarter. Porzingis said he will do everything in his power to play Game 3, but his questionable tag is real. With a 25-minute projection, it will be difficult to get exposure to Porzingis even if he plays.
Whenever the Mavericks made a run in Game 2, it was Derrick White who seemingly stepped up each time to make a clutch shot. He attempted a game-high 10 3-pointers last game, making four of them. If Porzingis is out, that will make White look that much better. During the season without Porzingis, White averaged a +3.04% usage rate, which was second highest on the team, and a +2.39 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
So much for Jrue Holiday only being a cash-game play. He erupted in Game 2 with 26 points and 11 rebounds while shooting an absurd 11-for-14 from the field. Holiday finished with over 50 DraftKings points for just the third time all season. He is another starter who will be relied on more if Porzingis is unable to play. The $7,000 mid-range salary is reasonable for a player who comes with elite consistency.
PJ Washington has been another consistent option from a fantasy perspective throughout the first two games. He is averaging 15.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while playing 38 minutes a night. Being able to stretch the floor for Doncic and Irving and be the third scoring option has been a perfect role for Washington since joining the Mavericks. He is a consistent value option who will play around 40 minutes.
Al Horford has not had his eruption game, as he did in the last two series, where he made six and seven 3-pointers, but potentially playing without Porzingis would certainly boost his production. Horford has been stuck around 30 minutes or less, but that would rise if Porzingis is unable to play. However, even playing his normal time, Horford can still exceed his salary. His $5,600 price tag provides room for upside.
Daniel Gafford has catapulted up the salary ranks after putting together a near double-double in Game 2 with 13 points and nine rebounds. Even playing 23 minutes, Gafford posted a 1.14 DraftKings points per minute and shot 6-for-9 from the field. Projected to play more than his frontcourt teammate, Gafford is a strong value play. He is an active player when given the minutes and will flirt with another double-double.
Derrick Jones Jr. was more active in Game 2 and finished with 21.25 DraftKings points. He made all four of his 2-point attempts but misfired on all three from behind the arc. Luckily, Jones Jr. shoots the ball substantially better at home compared to on the road. In his last three home playoff games, Jones Jr. is shooting an impressive 60.9% from the field and 75% from distance while averaging 14 points per game.
After such a great postseason run, Dereck Lively II has been disappointing in the first two games of the NBA Finals. He has only scored two points in each game and has played under 20 minutes in both games. However, his salary has dropped considerably to $4,400. He was $5,800 in the last game of the Western Conference Finals. That salary drop makes him a popular value play in all formats for tonight’s Game 3.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($3,000): The gap between the last mid-range play and the punt picks is getting larger by the game. Celtics’ backup point guard Payton Pritchard is now only $3,000 but has failed to reach double-digit DraftKings points in four straight playoff games. It took a near halfcourt heave for Pritchard to hit his only field goal of the past two games. He can get hot but is a risky value play.
- Josh Green ($2,800): Josh Green is another player who has failed to reach double-digit DraftKings points in a while but is getting consistent playing time. Projected for 15 minutes and only 17% ownership, Green is an average value option. He will not make or break a lineup and has the potential to shoot much better playing at home. However, this is a difficult matchup for all Mavericks’ guards.
- Sam Hauser ($2,600): Sam Hauser stole the show in Game 1 but snapped back to reality in Game 2, shooting 0-for-5 from behind the arc. He will likely play 10+ minutes tonight in Game 3, but he needs to hit shots to be relevant. If Hauser can make a couple of 3-pointers, that may be all that he needs to crack the optimal lineup. Just like the rest of these punt picks, Hauser is extremely risky.
- Maxi Kleber ($2,400): After a poor Game 1, Maxi Kleber was even worse in Game 2. The backup forward missed all four of his field goal attempts, including two from behind the arc. He only added two rebounds in 16 total minutes. The playing time is there for Kleber, but the production is lacking. Even playing at home and at this salary, it is difficult to get exposure to Kleber who has been awful.
- Dante Exum ($2,200): It was Dante Exum who got the nod over Jaden Hardy for the scrap minutes in Game 2. Exum made his only field goal attempt and also added one rebound and one assist in 10 minutes. Which player will get the playing time is a crapshoot, making both a dart throw at best in tournaments. Exum gets the nod over Hardy in Game 3 only due to his higher minutes projection.
