The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($10,300) San Diego Padres (-225) vs. Oakland A’s
The top pitching option on the board for Monday’s small slate is Dylan Cease, and it’s not particularly close. Cease has been excellent this season, with a 3.51 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, plus underlying numbers that show room for improvement in both categories.
He also has nearly every other factor working for him today. Oakland is a well below-average offense against right-handed pitching, with the second-highest strikeout rate against righties in the majors. Petco Park in San Diego is a top-five park in baseball for pitchers and also features an above-average Weather Rating of 61 tonight.
All of those factors together explain the A’s Vegas total of just 2.9 runs, tied for the lowest on the slate. With a slate-leading K prediction as well, Cease is a pretty obvious choice. While his ownership will be high, I’m not sure it’s worth trying to get fancy tonight — we can build unique lineups in other ways.
Cease leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling and is an excellent play in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Chris Paddack ($7,100) Minnesota Twins (-230) vs. Colorado Rockies
Anytime the Rockies are on the road, it’s worth taking a long look at the opposing pitcher. Colorado ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties, just one point ahead of the White Sox in last place. With the Rockies striking out at a higher clip, they’re arguably the best team to target with right-handed pitching.
Which is where Paddack comes in. He has an ugly 5.26 ERA on the season, but xFIP and SIERA numbers below 4.00. His 21.3% strikeout rate isn’t anything to write home about, but given the matchup, he should still provide enough upside to justify his modest price tag.
He leads both projection sets in Pts/Sal projection and is an extremely strong cash game play, given his moneyline odds and the Rockies’ 3.3-run implied total.
For GPPs, my preferred budget option is Erick Fedde ($7,800). Fedde has a 3.27 ERA, similar ERA predictors as Paddack, and a slightly higher strikeout rate. He has the more volatile matchup tonight against a Mariners team that’s roughly average in run production against righties but strikes out at the highest clip.
With Fedde also projecting for lower ownership than Paddack, he’s the sharp tournament pivot (provided you can find the $700 in salary).
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,800) Seattle Mariners (-210) vs. Chicago White Sox
As discussed above, Chicago is currently the worst team in the MLB against righties. They’re also tied for the lowest run total on Monday’s slate, with a 2.9 mark that matches the A’s number.
All of this makes Gilbert an interesting alternative for Cease as the top pitcher on the board. Gilbert’s 3.12 ERA is actually slightly better than Cease’s, though we’re trading that for a considerably lower strikeout rate of 23.6%.
Typically, that would make him the safer but less upside option. While that’s not untrue here, his cheaper salary and lower ownership projection keep him in the GPP discussion. Gilbert’s upside is more based on a long start than massive strikeout potential, but that’s not an unreasonable outcome in this matchup.
He’s clearly not quite as good of a play as Cease today, but the reduced ownership could be enough to consider the swap. I’d also anticipate lineups featuring both expensive arms will be fairly contrarian, making that an interesting way to build lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
One of the reasons pairing both expensive arms feels viable today is the presence of the Twins stack. They’re reasonably priced at under $4,500 per player and could be even cheaper if you replace or omit Royce Lewis ($5,900).
Minnesota leads the slate with their 5.2-run implied total, making them an obvious stacking choice even if they were more expensive. That their this cheap makes them a borderline lock.
While they enable the two expensive pitcher builds, it also makes sense to pair them with Paddack. That would build in some correlation between the Twins bats and Paddack’s win bonus on DraftKings.
Either way, you’ll want some exposure to Minnesota today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($4,900) Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon)
One of the reasons I’m comfortable pivoting away from Lewis with Twins stacks is the presence of Garcia on today’s slate. The speedy leadoff hitter is $1,000 cheaper than Lewis, with excellent numbers against lefties.
That becomes immediately apparent when looking at PlateIQ:
I like Royals mini-stacks today featuring Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) and potentially one more Royal. Garcia and Witt have combined for 34 steals on the season. While it’s typically slightly harder to steal bases against lefties, the 10 allowed by Rodon on the season is tied for eighth-most in the majors.
Spencer Horwitz ($2,600) Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
Toronto is implied for a bit more than four runs today against Colin Rea ($6,200), who has a misleading 3.53 ERA but an xERA more than two full runs worse.
That makes Horiwtz a screaming value at just $2,600, considering he’s projected to lead off for the Blue Jays. Given all the spots we’d like to spend up on in today’s slate, that makes him a valuable option. Be sure to check out the official lineups later today, though. If Horwitz moved down the order, he’d be a tough sell.
Cal Raleigh C ($4,200) Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox (Erick Fedde)
The Mariners are another team I’m somewhat interested in stacking. They have a 4.2 implied total tonight as they take on the aforementioned Erick Fedde. Fedde has been good this year, but he has a career ERA over five, so there’s a chance he’s just been running hot.
Raleigh’s numbers this season are a perfect example of Seattle’s overall outlook. He has solid power with 11 home runs but a 34% strikeout rate. That makes him a boom-or-bust option at a position without much upside on Monday’s slate.
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