Game 1 was all Boston. The Celtics jumped out to a 17-point, first-quarter lead and never looked back. Looking to go up 2-0 in the NBA Finals, the Celtics are 6.5-point home favorites in Game 2. The total is sitting at 215 points, which is a pretty high line. Can the Mavericks steal Game 2 on the road Sunday?
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
After seven-straight games recording 60-plus DraftKings points, Luka Doncic ended with an uncharacteristic 49.5 DraftKings points in Game 1. That was still the highest point total in the game, but it was not enough to pay off his price tag. Doncic finished with a 30-point, 10-rebound double-double, but he had a season-low one assist. The Mavericks only had nine assists, which was one of the many reasons they lost Game 1.
Doncic has seen his salary rise $200 since Game 1, and he still has the highest projected Plus/Minus for this showdown slate. He will likely be the slate’s top scorer yet again, but will it be enough to land in the optimal lineup? Doncic is also projected for the highest ceiling and the most usage rate in Sunday’s game with 34%. Expect a bounceback game passing the ball and for Doncic to flirt with a triple-double Sunday.
Jayson Tatum recorded a points-and-rebounds double-double for the seventh time in his last eight games. He finished with 16 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists while shooting only 6-for-16 from the field. Tatum will continue to dominate the glass in this matchup. The small frontcourt for the Mavericks ranked 26th in rebounding percentage during the season at 48.5%. Another double-double is imminent.
Tatum is projected for a slate-high 42 minutes in Game 2 and a 28% usage rate, which is second only to Doncic. His inconsistency makes him one of the best tournament plays on the slate, especially at the captain slot. Tatum had less than 40 DraftKings points in two of his last four games, but had over 70 in one game during that time. Keep an eye on his ownership, because he could be an elite option if it is low.
Jaylen Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and carried that momentum over into Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He stuffed the stat sheet with 22 points, six rebounds, three steals, three blocks, and two assists while shooting 7-for-12 from the field and attempting 11 free throws. Brown’s ability to rack up defensive stats keeps him from being a scoring-dependent fantasy producer. He is an elite pay-up option.
Brown has arguably been the best Celtics player recently. What he has done on both ends of the floor is a big reason why the Celtics have cruised into the NBA Finals and were able to capture Game 1. In the Celtics’ sweep over the Pacers, Brown averaged 29.8 points per game while shooting 51.7% from the field. The Mavericks have been a middling defense this playoffs, so Brown will continue have his way Sunday.
Despite being $600 cheaper than Brown, Kyrie Irving has the slighter higher ceiling projection. There has been a ton of chatter with Irving playing back in Boston, and that may have contributed to his poor Game 1 performance. Irving shot 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from behind the arc, totaling only 12 points and 21.25 DraftKings points. It’s hard to see Irving having back-to-back bad performances in Boston.
Priced at $9,000, this is the cheapest Irving has been the entire postseason. His cheap price tag is resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. Behind Doncic and Tatum, Irving is the third-highest owned player in the utility position and is also projected to play over 40 minutes Sunday. If Irving can find his rhythm shooting the ball against this difficult Celtics defense, he will be a fantastic option and pay off his salary.
Kristaps Porzingis was dominant in his first playoff game since getting injured in the First Round against the Miami Heat. He came off the bench and played 21 minutes. In that limited role, Porzingis lit it up with 20 points on 8-for-13 shooting and added six rebounds and three blocks, but he said he’ll come off the bench again Sunday. Even still, keep an eye on his status closer to lock.
Regardless if Porzingis is coming off the bench again or not, he looked excellent in his 21 minutes of action. Our model has him projected to play 25 minutes Sunday, which may increase if he is announced in the starting lineup. Porzingis is a major mismatch against the weak Mavericks frontcourt, especially when he can score at three levels. He is not cheap, but he did have 1.62 DraftKings points per minute in Game 1.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The price dropoff from Porzingis to Derrick White is significant, making White the perfect start at the mid-range. He had 15 points, five assists, two rebounds, and one steal in Game 1, but that was disappointing after averaging 42.1 DraftKings points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. There will likely be at least one game in this NBA Finals where White erupts, making him always a worthy target in tournaments.
White’s backcourt mate Jrue Holiday is a perfect cash-game option. His fantasy consistency makes him a great mid-range value option, but he does lack elite tournament upside given his lower usage rate. At $6,600, Holiday is pulling an identical ownership as White. To make it simple; roster White in tournaments and Holiday in cash games. Holiday has scored between 32 and 37 DraftKings points in each of his last four games.
PJ Washington was one of the better Mavericks’ players in Game 1. He nearly had a double-double with 14 points and eight rebounds despite not making a 3-pointer for just the second time in his last 13 games. Washington has looked comfortable being the third-best scoring option on the Mavericks, and his salary is very inviting. He is $6,200 on Sunday, which is $200 cheaper than Game 1 and the cheapest he’s been in the playoffs.
Al Horford‘s playing time could continue to take a hit with Porzingis getting more action, but the veteran center was a strong contributor in Game 1. Horford played 30 minutes and finished with 10 points, seven rebounds, three assists and two blocks. He is projected for similar playing time, and his price tag has dropped $400. Horford likely won’t make or break a showdown lineup and is a strong mid-range option.
Dereck Lively II continued his streak to 22 made fields without a miss. However, he only had one field-goal attempt in Game 1 and played 15 minutes due to foul trouble and the game getting out of hand. Normally, Lively is the closer for the Mavericks, so if this game is competitive, expect the versatile rookie center to be highly involved in the late-game action. Given his recent play, Lively is an incredible value play Sunday.
Derrick Jones Jr. was one of many Mavericks role players with a poor Game 1. He played 29 minutes and finished with only five points and six rebounds while shooting 2-for-9 from the field. Jones Jr. has a huge defensive assignment, but he has still shown promise with his perimeter jump shot and ability to score in the paint. He is a starter playing alongside two elite passers and has displayed an upside that he can reach.
Mavericks starting center Daniel Gafford only played 14 minutes in Game 1, which is concerning. Even at his 18-minute projection Sunday, Gafford may be overmatched in this series. However, seeing his salary drop $800 from Game 1 makes him in play as a cheap value option. He isn’t quite in the punt territory conversation, but Gafford’s salary offers potential for an incredibly strong stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($3,200): Another big gap in pricing leads us to the value and punt picks, starting with Payton Pritchard, who was an absolute disaster off the bench in Game 1. Pritchard failed to connect on all seven of his field-goal attempts and only added two rebounds and two assists in 16 minutes. However, being one of the most consistent bench players, Pritchard is a worthy punt option.
- Josh Green ($2,800): Mavericks’ Josh Green has received a ton of playing time recently, but he is not doing enough from a fantasy perspective for his price to climb. Still priced under $3,000, Green has failed to capture double-digit DraftKings points in each of his last four games despite playing 20 minutes per game during that time. He has made at least one 3-pointer in 13 of his last 14 games.
- Sam Hauser ($2,600): For what Pritchard did not do in Game 1, Sam Hauser filled that role perfectly. Hauser stole the show with eight points and four rebounds while shooting 3-for-4 from the field including two made 3-pointers. Hauser’s playing time has increased lately, and with that positive Game 1, expect it to stay around 15 minutes Sunday. He is a strong play in all formats for Game 2.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,400): Jaden Hardy‘s Game 1 box score is a little inflated after scoring 11 points in the last five minutes of blowout action. Hardy finished with 13 total points and 18.75 DraftKings points. Given the Celtics defensive backcourt, it is difficult to see Hardy having the same impact he did in the Western Conference Finals, but he has earned a role off the bench and has a high usage.
- Maxi Kleber ($2,200): Similar to Josh Green, Mavericks’ backup swingman Maxi Kleber does not provide much but has been given the playing time of a legit punt option. Kleber played 19 minutes in Game 1, but he only had five DraftKings points and one field goal attempt. He has displayed upside with his shooting, but Kleber would need to get hot to pay off even his cheap $2,200 salary Sunday.
