The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Sonny Gray ($9,500) St. Louis Cardinals (-240) vs. Colorado Rockies
Arguably, the slate’s best pitcher, Sonny Gray, comes into the contest with a 3.00 ERA, 2.49 xFIP, and 33.5% strikeout rate. Those numbers would keep him in the conversation for the best choice on the board in any matchup, especially with a sub-$10,000 price tag.
Of course, it’s not just any matchup today. He gets to take on the league’s 29th-ranked team against righties in the Rockies. With the Rockies away from the thin air of Coors Field, they’re averaging around 3.7 runs per game and have a Vegas Total of just 3.1 against Gray. They also strike out more than 25% of the time on the road, giving Gray plenty of upside here.
His ownership is likely to be massive today, somewhere in the neighborhood of 50%. Typically, I’d look to pivot off a pitcher in those circumstances for GPPs, but I’m not so sure today. The other reasonable options on the slate either have limited upside, more difficult matchups, higher price tags, or some combination of the above.
For that reason, I’ll look to get contrarian elsewhere and consider Gray as a lock in lineups for all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Cal Quantrill ($6,000) Colorado Rockies (+192) at St. Louis Cardinals
It’s pretty ugly at the lower end of the salary range today. Sonny Gray leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs in Pts/Sal projections, with most of the top spot in both models also belonging to relatively expensive pitchers. I prefer to spend up on pitching today while trying to find productive hitters at a lower price point.
However, if roster construction forced my hand, I think I’d look to Quantrill. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.84 ERA despite five of his 12 starts coming at Coors Field. His underlying metrics are slightly worse but not terrible, with a range from 3.99 to 4.55 when looking at his ERA indicators.
There are a couple of issues, though. One is that the Cardinals are a top-ten offense against righties, with a strong 106 wRC+. The other is Quantrill’s low strikeout rate of 17.8%. While we don’t need massive upside a this price tag, a lack of punchouts makes it hard to post a usable score if he allows a few runs.
All things considered, Quantrill makes sense in lineups that spend up on hitting, but I’d strongly prefer trying to find cheap bats if it all possible.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Greene ($8,200) Cincinnati Reds (-125) vs. Chicago Cubs
I’m a sucker for a Hunter Greene start. The Reds fireballer always has massive upside in theory — though it often doesn’t come to pass. Still, he’s hit 22 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts, including twice against the powerful Dodgers offense.
On paper, the Cubs are a much easier matchup, with a slightly below-average wRC+ against righties and a top-10 strikeout rate. In practice, they got to him for five runs in his last start, leading to a single-digit DraftKings score.
Still, Greene’s ERA is way down overall this season, at 3.44. He’s arguably been even better than that, with a 2.88 xERA. Part of that is probably due to his home ballpark: Greene has a somewhat high fly-ball rate, with home games at the best park in baseball for home runs.
He’s at home again tonight, so that could still be an issue, but even if he stays closer to his actual ERA, that’s not a deal breaker. He’s capable of torching your lineups, but he also brings tremendous upside. Given his reasonable price and low ownership projection, I’m willing to take the risk for tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
One of the reasons I feel comfortable spending up at pitching today is due to the projection on the Red Sox. Their 5.3-run implied total is tied for tops on the slate, but their first five projected hitters average under $4,600 per player.
They have an excellent matchup on the road in Chicago against Jake Woodford ($5,800). Woodford has made just one appearance in 2024 but had a 6.23 ERA through 15 appearances (eight starts) last season.
Boston also gets bonus points for being on the road, where they’re guaranteed nine innings of at-bats. Where they’re playing is important, too, as winds in Chicago are forecasted to blow straight out at double-digit speeds.
Based on RotoGrinder’s WeatherEdge tool, the forecasted conditions boost home runs by more than 35%. It’s a small sample size, but even a much lesser effect would be huge for the Boston bats.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Will Benson OF ($3,800) Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (Javier Assad)
I like getting some exposure to the Reds at home tonight thanks to the Park Factor, especially in lineups with Hunter Greene. That builds in some correlation between the hitter’s success and Greene’s chance of hitting the four-point win bonus.
With salary an issue, I wanted to see if any cheaper Cincinnati hitters fit the bill. PlateIQ found one:
Benson has crazy numbers against righties dating back to the start of 2023. He’s a boom-or-bust option (note the strikeout rate) and a bit expensive for a No. 9 hitter, but could pay off in a big way.
Mookie Betts SS ($6,100) Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter)
As good as Betts has been this season, it’s easy to consider him a top option on a daily basis. He’s a top-10 hitter in baseball by wRC+, with an OPS over .900 and nine steals to boot. On top of that, the powerful lineup behind him raises his chances of scoring anytime he’s on base.
He’s been even better against lefties. His average jumps to .333 against southpaws, and he was a beatable one today in Bailey Falter ($6,500). It’s hard to do a full stack of the Dodgers, but I’ll be trying to find the salary for Mookie tonight.
Adam Duvall OF ($3,700) Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
Like the Dodgers, the Braves have a five-run implied total, but price tags on their top hitters that make them hard to play as a full stack. They’re also taking on a lefty pitcher in Mitchell Parker ($7,200), though the matchup is a bit tougher than against Falter.
Duvall is a classic lefty specialist, hitting .102 on the season against right-handers but .286 against lefties, with all five of his home runs against southpaws. He’s a cheap way to get exposure to the Braves tonight.
