The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Austin Hays ($2,300): Outfielder, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles outfielder had a massive two home run game on Monday in Toronto to post his first 30-point DraftKings result of the season. In a part-time role, Austin Hays has four straight positive Plus/Minus games with a +2.43 average Plus/Minus over the last 10.
Overall, Hays is batting .209/.266/.337 on the season, with his only two home runs coming on June 3. In 86 at-bats, he has .420 xSLG and .313 xwOBA.
Hays is an interesting dart throw today against right-hander Jose Berrios. The Blue Jays hurler is 5-4 with a 2.78 ERA in 12 starts. He has a 1.08 WHIP and allows a .324 xwOBA.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($9,800) at Los Angeles Angels
Dylan Cease has struggled a bit over the last four starts. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in each outing and four total home runs. The model expects him to turn things around today in Los Angeles.
On the season, Cease is 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He showed his high ceiling potential on May 8 with 12 strikeouts and 41.35 DraftKings points against the Cubs.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Angels lineup has a .142 ISO and .288 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The bottom five hitters in the order each have strikeout rates above 23%.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,400) vs. Minnesota Twins
We know Aaron Judge is capable of going on historic runs in the batter’s box, but it is still amazing to see the production he has mounted over the last month. In May, Judge clobbered 14 home runs to drive in 27 runs and added 12 doubles along the way.
The Yankees superstar is batting .293/.422/.662 on the season and leads the American League with 21 home runs, 19 doubles, and 147 total bases. Even with a high DraftKings price tag, he has an insane +5.91 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Yankees host the Twins for game two of their mid-week series against Chris Paddack. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 11 starts.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($9,200) at Oakland Athletics
Without a $10,000+ pitcher on the main slate, the model likes Logan Gilbert tonight with a plus matchup against the Oakland Athletics.
Gilbert is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA on the season. He has a strong 1.00 WHIP with a .273 wOBA and .396 xSLG. He took a step back in May with a 4.66 ERA in six starts, but an eight-run outing on May 9 skewed those numbers a bit.
The Athletics have a low park rating on both sides of the plate tonight at home and a low run projection. Gilbert has a respectable 23.9 K% on the season and the Athletics projected lineup has a 24.2 K% against right-handers.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Anthony Volpe ($4,900) vs. Minnesota Twins
With many of the best offensive teams playing early in the day, the Yankees end up with one of the highest implied run totals on the main slate. Their lead-off hitter, Anthony Volpe is elevated in the model as a value play at $4,900 in comparison to the top tier of shortstops and their price tags at $5,700 and above.
Volpe is batting .283/.350/.437 on the season with six home runs and 25 RBI. He ranks sixth in the American League with 70 hits and seventh with 11 stolen bases. His ceiling is not as high as the top-end fantasy shortstops, but he is certainly capable of double-digit points. He has reached that mark in half of his last 12 games.
Corey Seager ($5,700) vs. Detroit Tigers
Fantasy owners looking for a step up from Volpe at the position can feel confident with Corey Seager in their lineups. The Rangers star has a +3.65 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and is only a few days removed from an insane stretch of eight home runs in nine games.
Overall, Seager is batting .269/.359/.472 on the season with 13 home runs and 29 RBI. He had a rough start to the season in April but put up a .287/.387/.660 hitting line in May with 11 home runs and has a .375/.444/.438 mark so far in June.
Seager will face right-hander Kenta Maeda with his 2-2 record and 6.25 ERA. The 36-year-old veteran has allowed a .379 wOBA and .484 xSLG on the season. This is a great spot for Seager.
