The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a ten-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shota Imanaga ($10,600) Chicago Cubs (-295) vs. Chicago White Sox
This is a slate with plenty of viable pitching options, particularly at the top of the price range. The FantasyLabs and THE BAT models disagree on their leader in median projections, with THE BAT favoring Imanaga and Labs giving the nod to Max Fried ($9,000). Both sites also have Luis Gil ($10,800) in second place.
That makes it tough to pick between the options. On the plus side, that means ownership projections should be fairly spread out. On the downside, picking wrong probably torpedoes any chance of that lineup winning anything of substance.
For my money, the best pick is Imanaga. His 15.2% swinging strike rate is the best on the slate and should translate to a much higher strikeout rate than his already strong 25.2%. He also has a sub-2.00 ERA, with xERA and xFIP numbers below three.
Crucially, he has by far the best matchup. The crosstown rival White Sox have a 71 wRC+ against lefties, which ranks 29th in the league. Boston and Minnesota (Fried and Gil’s respective opponents) have wRC+ numbers of 95 and 100 against the pitchers they are facing today.
It wouldn’t shock me to see any of that group (or even some other arms) lead the slate, but Imanaga’s matchup and upside make him the likeliest option.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Frankie Montas ($6,000) Cincinnati Reds (-135) at Colorado Rockies
While there’s plenty of high-priced pitchers worth your attention today, it’s a bit ugly at the low end of the salary scale. The highest Pts/Sal projections belong to players in the $9,000 range (including the aforementioned Fried), and the cheaper players all have major concerns.
The budget option I feel best about is Montas. He has fairly rough Vegas data, with the Rockies implied for north of five runs. However, Colorado has a fairly wide range of outcomes, as their home ballpark could lead to a big day, but they rank 29th in wRC+ against righties.
It’s also worth noting in this series specifically that Coors Field is actually an upgrade for Reds pitchers in terms of home runs and only a slight downgrade in terms of overall scoring relative to Cincinnati’s home park. This means Montas’ 4.60 ERA is fairly in line with his typical expectation here.
That’s obviously not great, and he’s not a big strikeout arm either. But he is just $6,000, and sometimes that can be enough. He also correlates nicely with Reds stacks, which is worth considering given their massive total.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jack Flaherty ($9,200) Detroit Tigers (-115) at Texas Rangers
I didn’t mention Flaherty in the above discussion of top arms today, but he’s my favorite GPP option on the slate. First, his ownership projection is a bit lower than all of the pitchers in that column, including George Kirby ($8,800). His salary being a bit lower than Imanaga’s and Gil’s also helps, as lineups with two of Kirby/Fried/Flaherty are entirely viable.
More importantly, he’s been awesome this season. His ERA is a good but not great 3.46, but all of his leading indicators are considerably lower, including a 2.03 xFIP. He leads all qualified starters with an absurd 34% strikeout rate, with at least nine strikeouts in each of his last three games.
Texas is a slightly tougher matchup than the teams he’s faced during that span, but their 103 wRC+ against righties is just a tick above average. They put up just one run against Tarik Skubal last night, and Flaherty has been every bit as good this season.
Flaherty doesn’t project as a top arm tonight, but he’s my favorite pivot for larger-field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
I alluded to this Reds stack earlier for a reason. They’re second on the slate with their 5.6-run implied total, just slightly behind the Chicago Cubs. Obviously the big appeal is that this game is at Coors Field, where the Big Red Machine put up 13 last night.
They’ve come alive offensively in general though, scoring five runs in three straight games at Wrigley before heading west.
They’re also on the strong side of their platoon splits against lefty Ty Blach ($5,000), with their wRC+ jumping from 85 versus RHP to 96 against lefties.
Effectively, everything is pointing in the same direction for the Reds, so at least some exposure to them is a must.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($4,900) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (Kyle Harrison)
With the game at Coors Field and the Cubs’ excellent team total, I’m not anticipating that the Diamondbacks will get much attention today, especially their high-priced players like Marte given how hard it is to fit the players we want.
However, it’s an awesome spot for Marte against Kyle Harrison ($8,100), a lefty with an ERA and leading indicators in the mid fours.
That’s because the switch-hitting Marte smashes lefties, as becomes apparent in PlateIQ:
Those numbers are probably unsustainable and based on a somewhat small sample size of 97 plate appearances. With that said, he’s hit .305 with an .889 OPS against lefties in his career, so this is certainly the right side of his splits.
Christopher Morel 3B ($4,200) Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
The Cubs are projected for over six runs tonight, meaning we certainly want some exposure to their offense. However, it’s not exactly clear who the best options are outside of a full team stack.
All things considered, I like Morel. He’s due for some solid regression thanks to an xwOBA nearly 80 points higher than his wOBA and a weirdly low BABIP of just .205. He also contributes a bit on the bases, with five steals despite not getting on base as much as we’d hope.
Some of that regression should hit tonight against Chris Flexen ($5,500) and his 5.50 ERA.
Michael Harris OF ($4,400) Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
Something seems off with Kutter Crawford ($8,200), who was recently a borderline Cy Young candidate, but he has given up 11 runs over his last two starts (10.1 innings). His xERA and xFIP remain higher than his actual ERA, so perhaps it was just some justified regression coming to roost.
Either way, I like the Braves tonight. They have a 4.6-run total, and Fenway Park is excellent for lefty hitters, as it has a 75 Park Factor. This is why I like the value on the left-handed Harris on top of his lead-off spot in the Braves lineup without Ronald Acuna.
