The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jack Flaherty ($8,700) Detroit Tigers (+101) at Boston Red Sox
We have plenty of pitching options today, as six of the eight teams in action are implied for fewer than four runs. That means a roughly similar level of run prevention from all of the associated pitchers, with strikeouts likely to be the deciding factor on pitching scores.
This is why Flaherty is my favorite choice on the slate. His 33.3% strikeout rate is second-best among qualified starters in 2024, trailing only the White Sox pitcher Garret Crochet and by just 0.1%. Flaherty is priced as a much lesser option than he is thanks to a few rough starts in early April.
He’s been lights out since then though, with five consecutive quality starts. His 3.84 ERA is still recovering from his early struggles, but his xFIP and SIERA are both in the very low twos. He also has a solid matchup against a Boston team that ranks below average against righties, boasting a top-ten strikeout rate.
Flaherty trails Zac Gallen ($9,500) by less than a point for the top median projection in the FantasyLabs Models but comes $800 cheaper and with more upside.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Christian Scott ($6,900) New York Mets (+100) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Christian Scott is drastically underpriced considering the Vegas Data in this game. Arizona is slightly favored, but they’re implied for just 3.7 runs against the Mets rookie. While saving salary isn’t much of an issue on this slate, it’s still helpful when possible.
Coupled with his strong numbers through four MLB starts, that makes Scott a strong play. He has a 3.97 ERA and somewhat better underlying numbers, plus a 22.8% strikeout rate that should probably trend up based on his 12.1% swinging strike rate.
The matchup with the Diamondbacks doesn’t give us any reason to fade Scott, either. They rank 25th in wRC+ against righties, with a roughly average strikeout rate. I’m not projecting Scott for massive upside, but he’s a solid bet for a usable score relative to his salary.
That makes him an excellent cash game option to pair with a pricey pitcher. He leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Ray Kerr ($5,900) Atlanta Braves (-198) vs. Washington Nationals
On the topic of “underpriced relative to the odds,” we have Ray Kerr. His Braves are heavily favored against the Nationals today, who are implied for just 3.7 runs. Of course, this one comes with a big caveat, as he was a last-minute replacement for Reynaldo Lopez as Atlanta’s starter.
Kerr has just one start in 2024, giving up five runs over four innings to the Pirates. On the plus side, his overall numbers including relief appearances are much better. His 5.84 ERA masks a 3.84 xERA and 2.86 xFIP, and he has an excellent 16.1% swinging strike rate.
The Pirates are/were a much tougher matchup as well. Pittsburgh has a 101 wRC+ against lefties, way above Washington’s 81 mark. That ranks bottom-five in the league, so Kerr doesn’t need to be elite to pay off his salary.
The biggest question mark is whether he can last long enough into this game to justify the roster spot, but that might only need to be four or so innings at his price tag. With the $1,000 in savings and arguably higher upside, I prefer him to Scott as my GPP salary saver. He is also projecting for a bottom-three ownership rate, an important factor on smaller slates.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The corollary to “lot of strong pitcher options” is “not a lot of good hitter options.” There are only two teams implied for more than four runs, but fortunately both of those are around five.
That’s led by the Braves at 5.1 runs, as they host the Nationals and pitcher Trevor Williams ($6,500). Williams actually has a 2.29 ERA on the season, but his underlying numbers are in the upper threes. That’s not a “must target” matchup, but it’s not as tough as it appears at first glance.
On a larger slate, Atlanta would be a bit too expensive to justify stacking. However, we don’t have many options tonight. They’re the obvious one, though be careful. Their elevated ownership means you probably need to pair them with some sneaky pitchers to have a shot in big GPPs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Luis Rengifo 2B/3B ($4,600) Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon)
The Angels are somewhat-surprisingly a top-five team against left-handed pitching. They’re facing Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon ($8,200) today. While Vegas isn’t optimistic (implying them for just 3.7 runs), this could be a sneaky team to target.
Using PlateIQ, I wanted to see which Angels hitters stood out:
Rengifo’s absurd .435 wOBA stands out immediately. Digging a little deeper, he’s hitting .515 (!) against lefties this season. That’s obviously not going to continue (and is based on 34 plate appearances), but it’s still a good sign.
Plus, the Angels will be massively contrarian today, and his multi-position eligibility helps fit him around other stacks.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,100) New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
You know who else has excellent numbers against lefties? That would be Aaron Judge. His batting average is just .250, but he has a ridiculous 1.111 OPS. While he’s running a bit hot in 2024, his career mark is an elite .997.
The even better part is Judge is almost as good against righties, so there’s no reason for the party to stop when the relievers come in. The Yankees are my favorite stack tonight, but even if you’re not going that route, Judge is a must play.
