The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Vaughn Grissom ($2,300): Second Baseman, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox kick off a four-game weekend set with Thursday’s tilt against the Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox are coming off back-to-back series losses against the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles, needing to extract more value from their batting order. Thankfully, we’re all expecting more from Vaughn Grissom.
The Red Sox second baseman has had sufficient time to get acclimated to everyday life in the MLB. Grissom’s start to the season was delayed until May due to a hamstring injury, putting him behind the eight ball out of the gates. But with 80 plate appearances to his name, it’s time that Grissom starts producing at a more consistent level.
Coming into Thursday’s series opener, the 23-year-old has hits in three of his past four games. Still, he remains well below expected levels. His .162 slugging percentage is half of its expected value (.324) while his .149 batting average is almost 100 points off expected (.242). This is despite posting a top-end 40.4% sweet spot contact rate that would put him among the top 20% of hitters in the MLB.
Jack Flaherty has been hit hard over his past few starts, giving up seven hits in two of his past three and two home runs in his last start. Grissom and the Red Sox are poised to take advantage of that in tonight’s showdown, with the youngster primed to continue his upward trajectory. Grissom is our preferred value candidate on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zac Gallen ($9,500) vs. New York Mets
Zac Gallen remains a force from the bump, maintaining his usual standards early in 2024. We could see him fly even higher on Thursday night against the New York Mets, as his Arizona Diamondbacks invade the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field against one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors.
The D-Backs ace has exceeded his usual standards over his past couple of starts. Gallen has pitched into the seventh-inning in both outings, totaling 13.2 innings pitched, six earned runs, and 15 strikeouts. Still, he’s been the tough-luck loser in both games, losing to the Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins. That makes it four straight quality starts for Gallen in the month of May, dropping his ERA to a Cy Young-worthy 2.81 and his WHIP to 1.01.
That elite play should continue into Thursday’s start against the lowly Mets. So far this season, New York has compiled the ninth-worst OPS, 11th-fewest runs, and a disappointing 23.7% strikeout rate. Somehow, the Mets have looked even worse over the past week, dropping their OPS to .588 and runs per game to 3.0, assuring Gallen’s run of superiority continues into June.
Insulated by the unhittable depths of Citi Field, Gallen should cap the month of May with another sterling outing against the Mets. With limited options on a smaller slate, he will likely be courted by many other DFS punters, so be ready to look further down the depth chart with batters.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels
As we’re seeing, the New York Yankees are every bit the part of World Series contenders we expected them to be. Led by former MVP Aaron Judge and MVP candidate Juan Soto, the Yankees have asserted themselves as the preeminent powerhouse in the American League. You wouldn’t be wrong for rostering either slugger on tonight’s docket, but we give the edge to right-handed batting Judge versus southpaw Patrick Sandoval.
After a tepid start to the year, Judge is rounding into MVP form. The three-time Silver Slugger has an otherworldly 1.366 OPS this month, sending 23 of his 32 hits for extra bases. Included in that are 11 home runs, precipitating 21 RBI and 25 runs scored. That torrid pace has been even more pronounced lately, with Judge swatting four dingers over his previous seven outings.
Predictably, Judge has the analytics profile supporting ongoing success. He rates in the 100th percentile in most advanced categories, including but not limited to barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Factoring in his disciplined plate approach, and there may be no stopping Judge from obtaining his second MVP in three years.
The scary part is that Judge is projected to continue this mind-numbing pace. He remains 100 points shy of his expected slugging percentage, implying that he is still a progression candidate. Surely that will continue against Sandoval, as Judge’s OPS goes from .995 versus righties to 1.111 against southpaws.
He’s not the priciest option on the slate, but he should be. Don’t pass up Judge against the Halos on Thursday night.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Nick Pivetta ($7,800) vs. Detroit Tigers
It’s been a tumultuous start to the season for Nick Pivetta. The former fourth-round pick burst out of the gates, allowing just one earned run across his first 11.0 innings pitched before a right elbow flexor strain forced him to the sidelines. However, Pivetta hasn’t been able to replicate that success since returning, getting tagged for 13 earned runs over his last 19.0 innings pitched. Nevertheless, he’s an ideal buy-low candidate on tonight’s main slate.
Pivetta was roughed up to the tune of five earned runs over 3.1 innings pitched in his last start, but that was a deviation from the two promising starts before that. The hard-throwing righty had pitched into the sixth inning in two straight games, giving up a paltry three earned runs across 11.2 innings pitched. The resulting 2.31 ERA across that modest sample more closely resembles the standard Pivetta set through his opening two starts of the season.
We’re expecting a bounce-back effort from Pivetta on Thursday night. He’s not nearly as bad as he looked in his most recent start, and the intermittent All Star caliber efforts should be a more consistent theme as he works his way back from the elbow injury. Tonight’s the night you can set your roster apart with Pivetta, as he leads our median and ceiling projections.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Michael Harris ($4,400) vs. Washington Nationals
The Atlanta Braves are desperately looking for production after the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season; however, the early returns haven’t been promising. With just eight runs scored in three games without Acuna Jr, Atlanta will need everyone to do a little more. Included in that is Michael Harris II, who is expected to be a catalyst at the bottom of the Braves’ order.
Harris opened the month on an icy 0-for-26 streak, going hitless through his first seven games in May. Still, he’s put in a more sincere effort as the end of the month approaches. Over the last few weeks, the Braves’ outfielder has gone 19-for-68 for a respectable .279 batting average, six RBI, and seven runs scored. But we’re still expecting more from Harris.
The former Rookie of the Year is operating below expected levels across the board. His season-long batting average of .258 is below the expected benchmark of .270, while his expected slugging percentage of .397 is over 20 points higher than his actual percentage of .373.
It’s been an improved effort from Harris over the latter part of the month, but he has yet to reach the pinnacle of what he has to offer. We’re expecting Harris to continue that ascent in tonight’s NL East battle against the Washington Nationals, reaching his fantasy ceiling and operating as one of the top value players on the board.
Corbin Carroll ($4,300) vs. New York Mets
We still believe in Corbin Carroll, and it looks like the reigning NL Rookie of the Year is starting to believe in himself too. The Diamondbacks’ franchise cornerstone has reignited the All-Star flame with his recent performances, but his salary hasn’t caught up to reflect that production. As such, he’s not only a top value play but also has one of the highest ceilings on tonight’s four-game slate.
Carroll is coming off a three-hit effort on Wednesday night, his first multi-hit effort since May 12, but we’ve been most impressed with his renewed power stroke. Six of Carroll’s last nine hits have gone for extra bases, including four triples since May 18. As expected, added bases correlates with more run production, with Carroll accounting for five runs scored and four RBI across the two-week sample.
Mets starter Christian Scott has had a hard time keeping the ball in the park. The rookie right-hander has given up a homer in three of his first four starts, including both outings at Citi Field. That bodes well for Carroll, as he fights his way back into fantasy relevancy.
Recent form suggests that Carroll is well on his way to reasserting himself as an optimal hitter. We’re banking on that continuing against the Mets, with Carroll ending the night as one of the top fantasy producing batters of the day.
