The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Daniel Vogelbach ($2,700): First Baseman, Toronto Blue Jays
Daniel Vogelbach’s time with the Toronto Blue Jays is analogous to the team as a whole. Vogelbach is off to a tepid start, but he is showing signs of breaking out over his recent sample. We’re anticipating that trajectory to continue for both Vogie and the Jays in Tuesday’s clash versus the Chicago White Sox.
Vogelbach has one of the most disciplined approaches at the plate. His 18.1% chase and 17.8% whiff rates put him on the elite end of the spectrum, letting him hunt for quality pitches. Predictably, his power metrics reflect that with the Blue Jays’ bench player’s 43.8% hard-hit and 37.1% sweet spot ratings.
Still, Vogelbach’s actual stats have yet to reflect his effective at-bats. He’s hovering well below his expected slugging percentage and batting average but is showing signs of growth lately. In limited action since May 19, Vogie’s OPS has jumped nearly 200 points, going from .395 to .565. In total, he’s gone 4-for-11 from the plate with one double, a home run, three runs scored, and an RBI.
The Blue Jays have a relatively unobstructed path versus Mike Clevinger, boosting Vogelbach’s projected value. Clevinger has the worst expected ERA in the majors, getting barreled 14.8% of the time. That bodes well for Vogelbach’s disciplined approach at the plate, setting him up to reach his fantasy ceiling on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($11,000) vs. San Francisco Giants
DFS punters have their pick of the choicest pitchers on tonight’s main slate, but Zack Wheeler towers above the rest. The Philadelphia Phillies’ ace has asserted himself as the NL Cy Young front runner thanks to his dominant early-season efforts. That momentum carries Wheeler and the Phillies into tonight’s battle at Oracle Park.
Wheeler has one of the best analytics profiles in the bigs. His 2.76 expected ERA puts him among the top 13% of MLB pitchers, while his .200 expected batting average and 86.6 mph average exit velocity rank in the 90th and 87th percentile respectively. As expected, those metrics translate to tangible on-field results.
Through his first 11 starts of the season, Wheeler has compiled a 6-3 record with a 2.53 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Moreover, the former All-Star has allowed more than two earned runs just once over his last seven starts, a span that includes five quality starts. Altogether, Wheeler is toting around a 6-0 record, 2.27 ERA, and 0.94 WHIP across the six-game sample.
Oracle Park remains a pitcher’s haven, setting Wheeler up for sustained success against the San Francisco Giants. We’re expecting him to reach his pinnacle as the slate’s top arm in this crucial National League showdown.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,400) vs. Colorado Rockies
There’s nothing quite like an evening game at Coors Field to get the fantasy blood flowing. For Jose Ramirez’s sake, that could mean another exceptional performance stacked on top of his recent improvements. The four-time Silver Slugger has rediscovered his MVP form, and we should see the best Ramirez has to offer against Ryan Feltner and the Colorado Rockies bullpen.
Over the past few weeks, Ramirez has elevated his play back to elite levels. He has an MVP-caliber .768 slugging percentage since May 4, equaling 10 homers, six doubles, and 27 hits. Naturally, those top-end stats correlate with preeminent run production, with Ramirez accounting for a monstrous 30 RBI and 18 runs across the 21-game sample.
After last week’s 6.0 innings of shutout ball, Ryan Feltner is due for a letdown. Unfortunately for him, Ramirez is here to expedite that regression. The Cleveland Guardians third baseman leads our median and ceiling projections by a pronounced margin and has the PlateIQ profile validating those expectations. We’re adding him to all of our lineups, expecting Ramirez to end the night as the top-performing fantasy producer.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($6,500) vs. Seattle Mariners
This season hasn’t gone the way many thought it would for Hunter Brown. The Houston Astros’ starting pitcher burst onto the scene in limited action in 2022, flashing signs of brilliance throughout his first full season in the MLB last year. However, up to this point, 2024 has been an unadulterated mess for the hard-throwing righty. Nevertheless, Brown has been efficient over his recent sample and is poised to end the night as an unsuspecting fantasy stud against the Seattle Mariners.
Brown hasn’t been nearly as bad as his stats imply. Granted, his 4.40 expected ERA remains in the bottom half of the league, but it’s much better than his current benchmark of 7.06. Likewise, Brown’s opponent’s batting average of .299 is significantly higher than expected, currently plateaued at .260.
As bad as things look, Brown has looked a lot better over his past few starts. Since the start of May, the former fifth-round pick has a respectable 3.98 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, bringing down his April totals of 11.84 and 2.37. Throughout that time, though, Brown has kept up his K/9 rate of 8.96.
Benefiting Brown, T-Mobile Park remains the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors. Not surprisingly, the Mariners have the third-worst OPS and third-most strikeouts at home this season despite playing just 26 games in Seattle in 2024.
All of those factors support that Brown should easily exceed the implied value of his $6,500 salary and end the night as one of the top fantasy performers on the slate.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,000) vs. Chicago White Sox
Daniel Vogelbach isn’t the only Toronto Blue Jay we’re expecting to get in on the action tonight. The AL East basement dwellers have extracted maximum value from most parts of their lineup recently, but none more so than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Blue Jays’ slugger has taken a lot of heat earlier in the year for his slow start to the season, but he’s rounding into form as of late. The three-time All-Star has an MVP-esque .998 OPS since the start of the month, recording a .393 batting average with seven extra-base hits, 13 runs, and 14 RBI.
More importantly, Guerrero Jr. is projected to continue that onslaught as he reaches for his expected levels. Through 233 plates appearances this season, Guerrero’s actual slugging percentage (.421) remains 80 points shy of his expected total (.500), while he also remains shy of his expected batting average, falling 11 points off the total.
Vladdy Jr. still has some of the best power metrics in the league. His 59.1% hard-hit rate puts him in the 99th percentile, and his average exit velocity and barrel rates reside on the elite end of the spectrum.
All signs point toward renewed success for Guerrero Jr. and the Jays. Even with a salary of $5,000, Vladdy is one of the top-value players on the board.
Ozzie Albies ($5,400) vs. Washington Nationals
The loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season will have a resounding impact on the Atlanta Braves. Acuna Jr. was a force for the World Series contenders and a mainstay in the heart of the order. Now the Braves will have to get someone to step up to account for that lack of production, but they have just the man for the job in Ozzie Albies.
Albies has been one of the Braves’ top hitters over their recent stretch. The switch-hitting second baseman has hits in 12 of his previous 14 outings, totaling three doubles, five runs, and six RBI over that stretch. Further, he’s padded his fantasy value this season with the occasional stolen base and a 37.0% sweet spot contact rating at the plate.
Albies has been much more productive as a left-handed hitter. Eleven of his 15 extra-base hits, 20 of his 25 RBI, and 17 of his 24 runs scored have come off right-handers.
The Braves can’t afford to lose sight of their championship aspirations this season, or they risk getting left behind in the NL East. Thankfully, Albies can keep them on track and deliver another meaningful fantasy performance on tonight’s main slate.
