The Celtics are up 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals and can advance to the NBA Finals with a win on Monday night in Game 4 in Indiana on Monday. The Celtics are 7.5-point favorites in Game 4, and the game total is set at 222.5 for the second straight game. Both Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) and Jrue Holiday (illness) are questionable for the game after Holiday played through a questionable tag in Game 3 and Haliburton was forced to sit out.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The availability of Tyrese Haliburton will be the key to the contests again on Monday. Haliburton is listed as questionable after leaving Game 2 with a hamstring injury in the third quarter. He missed 10 games earlier this season with a hamstring strain, so there’s a real chance he’ll miss a second straight game. If he does play, he could be severely limited like we saw when he tried to play through the injury in the third quarter of Game 2. If available, he’ll be a high-risk, high-reward play but will have a hard time living up to his salary of $9,600 in a Utility spot.
When he has been available in the playoffs, Haliburton has produced a 21.8% usage rate and 31.5% assist rate for 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 34.8 minutes per game. He has shown a high ceiling, and this will be a chance to get him at low ownership if he does play, but the risk is extremely high.
Pascal Siakam is one of many Pacers who will need to step up if Haliburton is out. He leads the Pacers’ starters with a 26.5% usage rate in the playoffs and has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the three games in this series, with a high point of 52 DraftKings points on 24 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists in Game 1. He had 22 points and six assists in Game 3 and will need to put up a big game if Indiana wants to extend this series.
Siakam has the potential for a 30-point double-double whether Haliburton plays or not, and if you think the Celtics will come out sluggish in a close-out game, Siakam is one of the top Pacers plays to build around either in your Captain spot or at least as a Utility. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections and the third-highest usage projection in this matchup with Haliburton not in the projections.
On the other side of the matchup, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continue to lead the way for the Celtics. As he has all series, Tatum has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections in this contest, with Brown just behind him in each category. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a Utility spot.
After “only” 23 points and 36.5 DraftKings points in a disappointing Game 2, Tatum bounced back with 70.5 DraftKings points in a huge Game 3. He finished with 36 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists for his best statistical game of the playoffs. He has over 60 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs with a 29.6% usage rate and 40.3 minutes per contest.
Brown took a bit of a backseat to Tatum in Game 3 but still managed to chip in 24 points and 35 DraftKings points. He has at least 35 DraftKings points in five of his last six games and has been very good in this series, with 49.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 52.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has the ability to go off with a monster game to close out Indiana, and he comes a little cheaper than Tatum as an option to build around.
Both Celtics stars have been very strong in this series and throughout the playoffs, and with so much value elsewhere, it’s possible to include both in your roster builds. Brown’s projected Plus/Minus in a Utility spot is fourth on the slate behind Tatum and the two Pacers’ guards highlighted below. He’s still a strong consideration, but Tatum should again be the priority for Game 4 lineups.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
With Haliburton out in Game 3, the Pacers’ supporting cast stepped up, and they should be a good source of value if asked to take on a larger role again in Game 4. The Celtics’ supporting cast has also excelled in this series, so there are several strong mid-range options to consider.
Without Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard started at point guard instead of shooting guard and had his best game of the postseason. He had 32 points, nine assists, and 51.5 DraftKings points in 40 minutes and almost led Indiana to an upset victory. He was outstanding at his salary of just $6,000, and it has only gone up to $6,200 for Game 4. His performance didn’t exactly come out of nowhere since he had produced over 26 DraftKings points in four straight games before his breakthrough, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight.
Nembhard has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind only Tatum, and he has the sixth-highest ceiling projection even though he only has the ninth-highest salary. In the playoffs, Nembhard has produced 0.85 DraftKings points per minute, but that number jumps to 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton off the floor.
Another key name if Haliburton is out is T.J. McConnell, who has been excellent when given playing time. During the regular season, he filled in admirably while Haliburton was out and also stepped up in Game 3. He had 23 points, nine rebounds, and a playoff-high 45.25 DraftKings points in 30 minutes.
He remains slightly cheaper than Nembhard and brings a very high ceiling if he gets more minutes. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
In the regular season, he produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 28.6 DraftKings points per game in the 11 games he played without Haliburton. In the playoffs, he has produced 1.21 DraftKings points per minute overall and 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. His rates are higher than Nembhard’s, but even without Haliburton, the veteran still came off the bench and played fewer minutes than the second-year starter.
If Haliburton is out again, both Nembhard and McConnell are worth considering as a Captain play. Nembhard seems to have a slight advantage in playing time and production and has the highest Pts/Sal in both the Captain and Utility spot. If you do use Nembhard at Captain, he leaves plenty of salary for your Utility spots and allows you to build a fairly balanced lineup including one of the Boston stars or even squeezing both in as Utility plays.
Instead of McConnell, Ben Sheppard started while Nembhard slid to point guard. Sheppard played 25 minutes but only had 7.25 DraftKings points and didn’t score a point. Due to his time on the floor, he’s not a bad punt play at $3,000, but his low usage limits his upside.
In the frontcourt, Myles Turner remains the most expensive Pacers starter after Haliburton and Siakam. He has two double-doubles with 20+ points in the three games in this series, producing 46.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 35.0 DraftKings points in Game 3. In between, he posted a low game with just eight points and four rebounds for 14 DraftKings points in Game 2.
Overall in the playoffs, Turner is averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. He has a high ceiling, but he doesn’t get as much added value without Haliburton, so he probably won’t be as high a priority at his $8,000 salary.
No player on the Pacers has gotten a bigger usage bump with Haliburton off the floor this postseason than Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith sees a usage increase of over five percentage points without Haliburton and has produced 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in his time without Hali on the floor. With that said, he didn’t get much going in Game 3, managing just four points, five rebounds, and four assists for 17.75 DraftKings points. He brings solid upside against his former team, but McConnell and Nembhard are better values at similar salaries whether Haliburton plays or not.
On the Celtics side, Jrue Holiday continues to have a great postseason. He played through a questionable tag in Game 3 and produced 14 points, nine rebounds, three assists, 36.75 DraftKings points, and the game-sealing steal. He has over 35 DraftKings points in each of the first three games of the series and has produced 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, with a big workload of 37.8 minutes per game. Holiday is risky at his $7,000 salary if he’s limited but is a strong play if he’s close to 100% based on the upside he has shown in this series.
Derrick White is a little more expensive than Holiday but has also been more consistent. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and has scored double-digit points in 12 of his 13 postseason games while averaging 1.0 DraftKings points per minute. Aside from Brown and Tatum, White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the Celtics just ahead of Holiday.
White’s salary is a little lower after a lower output in Game 3, but he still exceeded salary-based expectations in that game, so there are plenty of reasons to include White on Monday in Game 4. You can even count on White in your Captain spot if you think he’ll take on more work with Holiday potentially ailing.
With Kristaps Porzingis still not quite ready to return, Al Horford should continue to start in the final spot in the Celtics’ lineup. Horford had an impressive 23 points in Game 3 and has exceeded salary-based expectations with at least 15 points in three of his last four games. He’s priced right near Nembhard and McConnell, which could make his ownership lower as the public gravitates towards the two Pacers guards. Horford had 22 points and 15 rebounds for 58.75 DraftKings points in the closeout game against the Cavs, and if he comes up big again, he could end up as a great source of leverage.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Payton Pritchard ($3,600): Pritchard had 12 points in Game 2 and exceeded salary-based expectations with 18 DraftKings points. In Game 3, though, he only had two points in 15 minutes. He continues to play a key role in the Celtics’ second unit, although his usage fluctuates from game to game based on the situation.
- Sam Hauser ($2,400): Hauser played 22 minutes in Game 2 and had 18.75 DraftKings points to match his second-highest postseason total, but in Game 3 he went scoreless in 14 minutes and had just 1.25 DraftKings points. He could get more chances if the game gets lopsided, but he’s very volatile and slightly less reliable than the Pacers’ bench options.
- Xavier Tillman ($2,000): With Luke Kornet (wrist, questionable) out in Game 3, Tillman played 13 minutes compared to nine minutes for former Pacer Oshae Brissett. Both big men are viable punt plays if Kornet is sidelined again, but Tillman looked to be slightly more involved and outproduced Brissett 4.75 DraftKings points to 3.25 DraftKings points. If Kornet plays, he’s probably the best big-man bench option for Boston, but if Kornet is out, Tillman would be my preferred play.
- Obi Toppin ($4,000): Toppin started the series strong with 24 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 16.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. In Game 3, though, he only had 11.75 DraftKings points. He fell short of salary-based expectations for just the second time in the Pacers’ last 15 games, but he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players with salaries under $5,000 in Monday’s matchup.
- Isaiah Jackson ($2,000): Jackson has played limited minutes as the primary backup for Turner in the middle, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, including two of three in this series. He had five rebounds in 10 minutes in Game 3 to finish with 10.25 DraftKings points. He’s a good punt play at only $2,000 and produces good numbers when given minutes. If he finds a way to more minutes due to a blowout, injury, or foul trouble, Jackson could have a huge game, so if you have to go ultra-cheap to fit in the other plays you want, Jackson is a good bargain option.
