The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($10,300) Minnesota Twins (-170) vs. Kansas City Royals
We don’t have any truly elite pitching options on Memorial Day, with nobody projecting over 20 DraftKings points in the FantasyLabs models. However, Ryan tops that number in THE BAT, while coming close in the Labs projections.
He has a very good strikeout rate of 27% and an ERA of 3.15. Those aren’t exactly Cy Young candidate numbers, but on a somewhat smaller slate, they’re at or near the best on the board. He also has the best Vegas data on the slate by a wide margin, with the Royal’s implied total of 3.6 well lower than every other team.
That’s at least in part due to Kansas City’s numbers against righties. Their wRC+ drops ten points compared to against lefties, though their 18.5% strikeout rate is fairly low.
That makes Ryan a high-floor cash game play, but he may not have the upside to justify his slate-high salary on Monday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Steele ($7,000) Chicago Cubs (+101) at Milwaukee Brewers
Steele’s traditional numbers look pretty rough at first glance. He comes into Monday with a 5.68 ERA, and just a 21% strikeout rate. However, at least his ERA is due for some significant positive regression. His xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all in the high threes.
He’s in a good spot to enjoy some of that today against a Brewers team that struggles against lefties. Milwaukee is the second-best team in baseball against righties, but they rank 15th against lefties. Their 23.9% strikeout rate is also top-ten and should help raise Steele’s upside a bit.
While the Cubs are still slight underdogs here, the overall Vegas data is solid considering his price point. He leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal and is a solid salary saver for all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nick Lodolo ($9,800) Cincinnati Reds (-135) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Unlike the other high-priced options on today’s slate, Lodolo has no shortage of upside today. He comes into the day with a 30% strikeout rate that’s more than supported by his 15% swinging strike rate. Lodolo’s ERA of 3.34 is actually slightly higher than his leading indicators, which is another good sign.
On top of that, he has an elite matchup against the Cardinals. St. Louis has struggled offensively in general this season, but especially against lefties. They have a terrible wRC+ of 76, good for 28th in the league.
He’s also projecting for extremely low ownership despite his excellent numbers. That makes sense when you consider he hasn’t pitched in a few weeks due to a stint on the 15-day IL. It’s hard to say how long of a leash he’ll have in his return start.
That makes Lodolo a classic high-risk, high-reward GPP option today. He’s my favorite tournament pitcher, but I’m staying far away in cash games, as both his effectiveness and his pitch count could potentially be way off in his first start back.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
We have a stoppable force against a movable object today, as the Rockies’ 29th-ranked offense takes on Xzavion Curry ($5,000) and his 6.09 xERA.
I tend to lean toward bad hitting beating bad pitching in matchups like this, though there’s an argument for both sides. The market seems to be agreeing with me though, giving the Rockies an implied total of five runs.
Obviously, much of that is due to this game being at Coors Field. Given Curry’s low strikeout rate of 13.5% this year (just over 15% in his career), he’ll likely struggle to pick up outs today.
On top of all that, the Rockies stack is super cheap. Partial stacks also make sense, as they free up the salary for an additional mini-stack on one of the slate’s more expensive offenses.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($6,400) Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
One of those more expensive stacks is the opposing Guardians, who have a slate-high 5.7-run implied total today in Colorado. They’re taking on lefty Austin Gomber ($5,800). Gomber improbably has a 2.76 ERA this season, but he’s somehow managed a .232 BABIP after two seasons of .310 or so. He’s due for some big time negative regression.
Using PlateIQ, I looked to see which Guardinas have the best splits against lefties:
There’s a few choices, but the big power provided by Ramirez stands out. He already has 15 home runs this season and is due for some regression himself. His .235 BABIP is very low for a player with his speed, and he should get a boost from the spacious outfield and thin air at Coors.
Jacob Hurtubise OF ($2,500) Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn)
Hurtubise has seen his salary rise $500 over the past two weeks but is still drastically underpriced. He’s the lead-off hitter in the Reds’ lineup, which is extremely valuable with their 5.2-run implied total.
Through two weeks of big-league action, the rookie is hitting .280. He profiled with near-elite speed, so he should be able to do more damage on the base paths than the one steal he currently has. He’s an excellent salary-saving option at his current price, which is unlikely to last much longer.
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