After escaping Minnesota with a Game 1 road victory, the Dallas Mavericks are playing with house money in Game 2. They are 5.5-point road underdogs, but they have proven they can win despite the unfavorable spread. Despite combining for 213 points in Game 1, the total points line for Game 2 hasn’t budged and sits at 207.5 points. Can the Timberwolves rebound, or will the Mavericks take full control going back to Dallas?
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Luka Doncic failed to record a triple-double for the first time in his last four games but still finished with a game-high 60 DraftKings points. Even after a slow start to Game 1, Doncic found a way to be very productive. He posted a 34.7% usage rate and scored 33 points with eight assists, six rebounds, three steals, and one block. To no surprise, he has the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight.
If Doncic is not your captain, it will be hard not to deploy him in the utility spot. He is extremely safe and leads the slate with a 98% Bargain Rating. Given the playing time security, slate-high usage rate, and near certainty to be the top scorer, Doncic is easily the stud to target. Both teams give minutes to a plethora of players, so there is plenty of value to fit in Doncic. He is expensive but has shown to be worth the salary.
The only player who comes close to Doncic in our Player model is Timberwolves’ rising star Anthony Edwards. He was absolutely gassed from a long grueling series against the Nuggets. Edwards admittedly failed to get downhill and settled for too many perimeter jump shots, and 12 of his 16 field goal attempts in Game 1 came from behind the arc. Expect a much more aggressive Edwards tonight after losing Game 1.
Edwards has displayed an incredible upside with three 40-point games already in this postseason run. He leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus and is second to Doncic in nearly everything else. The $2,000 pricing discount from Doncic has Edwards projected to be the highest-owned captain. Doncic is the safer option for cash games, but Edwards’ price tag gives him the boost in tournaments.
Kyrie Irving seemed to take Anthony Edwards’ words personally when Edwards said he wanted to guard Irving. Be careful what you wish for, young fella. Irving absolutely cooked Edwards, scoring 30 points while shooting 12-for-23 from the field. Irving failed to connect on a 3-pointer for the third time all postseason, but he got whatever shot that he wanted. The price dip from Edwards to Irving is massive, making him an elite play.
An aggressive Kyrie makes him enticing for both the captain and utility spot. The Timberwolves will likely make adjustments in an attempt to slow down Irving, but he was unguardable in Game 1. He seemed to sleep walk through the second round, but he is wide awake now. Most of Irving’s production comes from scoring the ball, but he has also displayed high-assist games. He is a strong play in all formats tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns was disappointing in Game 1, shooting an uncharacteristic 6-for-20 from the field and 2-for-9 from behind the arc. He only scored 16 points and had seven rebounds. It was the first time in his last five games that Towns recorded a negative Plus/Minus. Towns has bounced back after every poor game during the Timberwolves’ playoff run, so expect nothing less tonight, especially in this matchup.
The Mavericks during the regular season were a below-average interior defensive and rebounding team. They ranked 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.5% and allowed nearly 50 points per game in the paint. In their four regular season meetings, Towns had his way with the Mavericks, averaging a double-double with 21 points and 10.3 rebounds per game while shooting 52.6% from the field and 41.7% from distance.
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Similar to Towns, the same matchup applies for Timberwolves’ center Rudy Gobert. He was the only player on the Timberwolves in Game 1 who posted a double-digit net rating and Plus/Minus. Gobert continues to lead the playoffs in Plus/Minus, but that does not always translate to fantasy production. However, Gobert will flirt with a double-double in every game of this series, making him a great option.
PJ Washington played the most minutes of any player in Game 1 but struggled to find his perimeter shot. He was 2-for-8 from downtown and only 4-for-10 overall, posting 13 points and seven rebounds. His salary dipped $400, which makes him an even better mid-range play in Game 2. If Washington is going to play 40 minutes a night, he will be able to exceed his salary-based expectations more often than not.
Mike Conley had one of his worst games of the season Wednesday night with only six points, three rebounds, and three assists. He shot 2-for-7 from the field, 1-for-6 from deep, and only 1-for-4 from the charity stripe. Minnesota Mike shot a career-best 44.2% from behind the arc during the regular season, so his Achilles injury may be really bothering him. Make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock.
Jaden McDaniels was one of the few Timberwolves players to have a strong Game 1 performance. He scored over 20 points for the third consecutive game and continues to be a menace defensively. During this three-game stretch, McDaniels is shooting an absurd 68.6% from the field and 66.7% from behind the arc. His salary is rising, but he is one of the best values on the slate. He is simply playing too well to ignore.
Dereck Lively’s energy off the bench is captivating. He only played 27 minutes, but his activity on the floor adds up fantasy points in a hurry. Lively shot a perfect 4-for-4 from the field and grabbed 11 rebounds to go along with three assists and two steals. He has a ridiculous 28.8 net rating, as he dominated on both ends of the floor. Lively is an incredible play in all formats, even off the bench.
Daniel Gafford also had success against the Timberwolves frontcourt in Game 1, with a near double-double. He finished with 10 points and nine rebounds while shooting 5-for-9 from the field. His playing time has diminished with the rise of Lively, but Gafford can still be productive in his 20+ minutes of action. If Gafford captures that elusive double-double, he will easily pay off his cheap $5,200 salary.
Compared to his previous three games, Derrick Jones Jr. had a dud in Game 1. Despite playing 35 minutes, Jones Jr. only had eight points, four rebounds, and two assists. He failed to capture a steal or block for just the second time during their playoff run. If Jones Jr. can rekindle his previous three games, he is an absolute steal at this salary. He posted a double-digit Plus/Minus in each of his last three games.
Naz Reid also had a strong Game 1 for the Timberwolves with 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, including three made 3-pointers. It was his second-highest fantasy point production this postseason, finishing with 28.75 DraftKings points. The Sixth Man of the Year has been a vital part of the team’s success. His $4,600 salary is drawing the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at captain and the fifth-highest at utility.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,400): It has been a rough last few games for Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who has shot 0-for-9 from behind the arc in his last two games. He shot 39.1% during the regular season and has had several great shooting performances in the playoffs. Nearly all of his production comes from scoring. He is a risky value, so make sure to only use Alexander-Walker in tournaments.
- Josh Green ($2,800): The Mavericks’ backup shooting guard Josh Green continues to play around 15 minutes off the bench. If his shot is falling, Green will likely play even more with upside in the mid-20s. Green has posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 12 games. He was not great in Game 1, but he does not have to do much to return value at $2,800. This is a bounce-back spot for Green.
- Kyle Anderson ($2,600): This series is obviously a better fit for Kyle Anderson than the Nuggets series. Anderson finished Game 1 with 11 points, two rebounds, and two assists, while shooting 5-for-8 from the field in 17 minutes. His versatility will likely keep him on the floor at least for Game 2. Anderson has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the captain slot and is viable to fit in the studs.
- Tim Hardaway, Jr. ($2,400): Game 1 was mainly a cardio experience for Tim Hardaway, Jr. He had no field goal attempts, but he did manage to haul in four rebounds and capture a steal in his 10 minutes of action. We can’t expect Hardaway Jr. not to attempt one single shot in Game 2. He will likely get a few looks from behind the arc, but he is still risky even with a little upside if his shot is falling from deep.
- Jaden Hardy ($2,200): The preferred Mavericks’ cheap punt play is Jaden Hardy. When he is on the floor, he produces fantasy points. Hardy only played nine minutes last game, but he still managed to put up double-digit DraftKings points for the second straight game. He has the fifth-highest usage rate projection at 23.3%. Even though he is only projected for 10 minutes, he is an elite value play.
