The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Gil ($10,000) New York Yankees (-141) vs. Seattle Mariners
I don’t love the five-figure price point on Gil today, but it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve it. He’s averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game, with a 2.39 ERA and strikeout rate above 30%. However, both of those numbers could be due for some regression based on a 3.64 xFIP and 11.5% swinging strike rate.
That regression probably won’t hit today, though. That’s due to the matchup with the Mariners, who continue to strike out far more than any other MLB team. Even if Gil allows a couple runs, his strikeout upside is high enough to more than outweigh the negatives.
Besides, Vegas doesn’t expect much scoring from the Mariners today. Their 3.8-run implied total is near the bottom of the slate, with only two teams checking in just slightly lower. Gil is a locked-in top option today.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median projection.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryan Feltner ($6,000) Colorado Rockies (+105) at Oakland A’s
Feltner is an interesting option today. He’s finished all three of his big league seasons (disregarding two starts in late 2021) with ERAs in the upper fives. He’s currently sitting at 5.69, with a 19.4% strikeout rate. On the other hand, he’s pitched all of those seasons in Colorado.
His underlying metrics are much better, with a 3.76 xERA and 4.06 SIERA in 2024. While he’s operating with a large enough sample size that there’s an argument for ignoring those predictive measures, the brutal nature of his home ballpark has me leaning towards some positive regression coming his way.
Besides the offensive environment at Coors Field being tough, he’s also in a division where every other team is a top-ten offense in baseball. Now, he gets to face the 21st-ranked A’s in Oakland with a Park Factor of 55 for pitchers.
That points to some positive regression for Feltner, who doesn’t need a huge day to pay off his $6,000 salary. He leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal, and is an excellent budget option to pair with a top pitcher in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Paul Skenes ($9,500) Pittsburgh Pirates (-170) vs. San Francisco Giants
Just like yesterday, we have a Pirates rookie righty as an interesting GPP play. Yesterday it was Jared Jones who let us down with a 12.10-point performance. Today it’s super prospect Paul Skenes.
Skenes has been every bit as good as advertised through two big league starts. He’s averaging north of 25 DraftKings points with an absurd 46.2% strikeout rate. He was working on a no-hitter through six innings before getting pulled in his last start, striking out 11 of the 19 Cubs hitters he faced (with one walk).
The matchup with the Giants is slightly tougher on paper but not enough to avoid Skenes today. While the Giants don’t strike out much, that could lead to some quicker at-bats and thus more innings for the rookie.
He trails Gil and Zack Wheeler ($11,000) in ownership projection in THE BAT, making him an excellent GPP pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
San Diego was our top stack for yesterday’s evening slate, and they went off for seven runs against the Reds. They’re in a good spot again today, with a 4.9-run implied total against Frankie Montas ($7,500) of the Reds.
Montas has a 4.37 ERA, but all of his underlying metrics are worse, which feels like an anomaly based on his home ballpark. Great American Ball Park is the best home run venue in the majors, so we’d expect metrics that factor out the ball park to be lower for Montas, not higher.
This means he’s due for some ERA regression, a great sign for the Padres. They’re too cheap considering their implied total and excellent numbers (122 wRC+) against righties.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JT Realmuto C ($5,200) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney)
Philadelphia has the highest implied total on the slate at 5.1 runs against Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney ($6,800). Similarly, Realmuto leads the catcher position in median and ceiling projection by a wide margin.
Using PlateIQ, I wanted to see why that is:
Those are absurd numbers, and they’re backed up by his traditional stats. This season, he’s hitting .360 with a .936 OPS against southpaws.
Elly De La Cruz SS ($6,300) Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres (Matt Waldron)
I’m interested in both offenses in Cincinnati today, largely thanks to the aforementioned Park factors. Any discussion about the Reds offense obviously starts with De La Cruz. He’s improved on his solid rookie season this year, hitting .256 with nine home runs and a ridiculous 30 steals.
That puts him on pace to challenge for 30 homers and 90(!) steals by the end of 2024. He’s got an excellent matchup today with Matt Waldron ($6,200), who has allowed lefties to hit .321 this season. That also puts the switch-hitting shortstop on the right side of his own splits, as he bats about 50 points better from the right side.
