The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jacob Hurtubise ($2,200): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
DFS players can straddle a wide line by including Jacob Hurtubise on their Thursday afternoon rosters. The Cincinnati Reds’ lead-off man will have plenty of at-bats to maximize fantasy output and is a natural progression candidate, making him the top value play on the board.
Hurtubise was called up a couple of weeks ago and has limited MLB plate appearances under his belt. Still, he’s shown an improved approach at the plate after getting off to a tepid start. The Reds outfielder comes into Thursday’s matinee against the San Diego Padres on a modest four-game on-base streak, recording two hits and two walks over that stretch.
Further, Hurtubise’s actual slugging percentage of .154 is less than half his expected total of .309. Granted, that doesn’t support that he’s jumped into the major league level and evolved into a power hitter. But it does imply that he’s due for meaningful progression at the plate.
Finally, Hurtubise will have plenty of opportunities to take those big steps against Matt Waldron. The Padres’ probable starter has an inflated 5.00 ERA, ranking in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA, expected batting average, and barrel rate. Those conditions support that Hurtubise should outperform the expectations of his meager fantasy salary in this one.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Gil ($10,000) vs. Seattle Mariners
There are two pitchers who stand above the rest on today’s afternoon slate. Zack Wheeler and Luis Gil are separated by less than one point in our ceiling projections, but there is a difference of $1,000 on DraftKings in salary. On that basis, we give the edge to Gil, who is pitching at home against the soft-hitting Seattle Mariners.
Of course, there’s more than an ideal matchup at home supporting Gil’s inclusion on rosters. Up until a couple of starts ago, Gil was hovering below $8,300 in all of his starts, but his jump to the $10,000 mark reflects his astonishing development in 2024. The 25-year-old rates in the 88th percentile or better in expected ERA, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate, demonstrating his elite approach when toeing the rubber.
More importantly, he’s ridden that analytics profile to fantasy prominence along the way. Gil has totaled more than 20.5 fantasy points in each of his last four starts. Further, his 27.3 fantasy point average over that stretch is being propped up by his last outing in which he struck out 14 across 6.0 innings for 39.9 fantasy points.
Although he might not reach the heights he did in his last start, Gil is poised to continue his assault on opposing hitters. The Mariners rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS while accumulating the most strikeouts in the bigs. Gil will exploit those vulnerabilities en route to another showstopping performance.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis ($5,500) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The San Diego Padres have benefited immensely from the addition of Luis Arraez at the start of the month. The two-time Silver Slugger has solidified the top of the Padres’ order with the fully intended consequence of also supporting Fernando Tatis Jr.’s production. We’re anticipating another strong showing from Tatis Jr. in Thursday’s battle against the Reds.
Tatis Jr. has been in fine form over the past week. The Padres’ right fielder has hits in five of his past six, scoring four times and driving in three more. He might only have one extra-base hit over that stretch, but Tatis is due for progression in that regard.
The former All-Star’s slugging percentage has dipped to .368 in the month of May. That puts him well behind his regular season average of .411 and even further off his expected value of .491. Combined with his 49.0% hard hit and 11.1% barrel rates, it’s just a matter of time before Tatis Jr.’s power stroke returns.
We’re betting that improved power is reflected in Thursday’s performance against Frankie Montas. The Reds’ probable starter ranks in the 28th percentile in hard-hit rate, contributing to a below-average .431 expected slugging percentage. Those pitches will look like meatballs for Tatis Jr., and we expect he and his Padres teammates to feast.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Ryan Feltner ($6,000) vs. Oakland Athletics
Hear me out on this one. One of the lowest-salaried pitchers on today’s early slate presents some of the best value available. Ryan Feltner hasn’t earned a reputation for being a top fantasy producer. He’s posted an ERA above 5.60 in each of his first three seasons and isn’t off to a great start in 2024. Still, Feltner’s metrics support that he’s ready to turn the corner, and we should see the best he has to offer against the lowly Oakland Athletics.
Feltner’s not as bad as his traditional stats imply. The former fourth-round pick has posted an above-average 3.76 expected ERA and has been a masterclass at inducing soft contact. His 87.3 average exit velocity puts Feltner among the top 20% of MLB pitchers, complemented by above-average barrel and hard-hit rates.
Moreover, we’re starting to see the youngster translate those analytics to on-field successes. Feltner has two quality starts over his past four outings, limiting the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers to two earned runs across 6.0 innings pitched two starts ago.
As such, Feltner should have no problem containing a lackluster A’s squad. Oakland has compiled the second-most strikeouts and tenth-worst OPS, setting Feltner up for success in Thursday’s series finale. Don’t let his salary fool you. Feltner is worth including in any format.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Dansby Swanson ($3,300) vs. Atlanta Braves
Shortstop remains a volatile position in the DFS world, but there’s a remedy for those woes on Thursday’s slate. Dansby Swanson recently returned to the Chicago Cubs lineup after missing the last two weeks with a right knee sprain. The former first overall draft pick has recaptured his All-Star form and is poised to sustain those efforts in today’s tilt versus his former squad.
Swanson has stepped back into the Cubs lineup without missing a beat. He’s recorded three hits in two games, accounting for two runs and a double. That upward trajectory is expected to continue as Swanson remains below all of his expected benchmarks. Most notably, his .291 on-base percentage is 40 points off of expectations, while his .353 slugging percentage is nearly 100 lower than his .447 expected benchmark.
Swanson will have many opportunities to extend his improved play versus AJ Smith-Shawver. The 21-year-old has been combustible this season, giving up four home runs across his last 13.2 innings pitched. Predictably, that’s contributing to a below-average standing in barrel rate and average exit velocity.
DraftKings has taken a gentle approach to increasing Swanson’s salary, leaving an edge for DFS punters to exploit. Swanson projects as one of the top value plays available on the afternoon slate.
Mike Ford ($3,300) vs. San Diego Padres
We are dipping our toes back in the Reds waters, highlighting Mike Ford as an underappreciated fantasy prospect on Thursday. The Reds’ first baseman resides in the heart of the order, giving him plenty of chances to make an impression in his first season with the Reds.
Granted, Ford has just one hit over his last three outings, but his best work has come off of righties. Both of the left-handed batting journeyman’s extra-base hits have come off righties this season, including two of his four RBI and both of his runs scored. As expected, that’s been Ford’s standard throughout his career. Forty-eight of his 60 extra-base hits and 28 of his 37 home runs have come off of righties, a stat that will likely improve versus Waldron.
As noted, the Padres’ probable starter has been hit hard this season, posting ineffective metrics and lackluster traditional stats. Ford, Hurtubise, et. al can extend that woeful start and reach their fantasy ceilings in today’s contest against the Padres.
